S&P 500 Sees Modest Rise as Biggest IPO Ever Launches

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose a little over 0.6% over where it ended the previous week to close out the trading week ending on Friday, 12 June 2026 at 7,431.46.

That lackluster result occurred despite the biggest ever Initial Public Offering (IPO) in U.S. stock market history: the $2 trillion launch of SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX). The company best known for its reusable rocket launching technology and its satellite-based Starlink communication/Internet network did not qualify for inclusion into the S&P 500. S&P Global rejected changes in the index’ rules that would have allowed SpaceX to be included less than a year after it began trading. The decision means that other megacap IPOs currently waiting in the wings for AI technology giants Anthropic and OpenAI will also face at least a year-long exclusion from the index before they might join the index.

Without the SpaceX IPO, the biggest market moving news of the week came during the trading day on Thursday, 11 June 2026, when President Donald Trump announced the U.S. and Iran were near an agreement to proceed with a negotiated end of the Iran war geopolitical event. Stock prices jumped on the news, more than reversing the previous day’s decline when it looked military action might resume.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart finds the S&P 500 continuing to track along with the trajectory associated with investors focusing on the current quarter of 2026-Q2, just as they were a week earlier. This focus coincides with an intense amount of attention on the direction the Fed will be taking in setting short-term interest rates at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in the next week:

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool foresees a quarter point increase in the Federal Funds Rate to a target range of 3.75-4.00% on 9 December (2026-Q4). In 2027, the tool now gives a greater than 50% probability of no additional rate hikes at each of the planned meeting dates of the Fed’s interest rate setting Open Market Committee, with a 0% probability of any cuts and up to a 30% probability of an additional quarter point rate hike on 28 April (2027-Q2).

Here are the trading week’s market moving headlines:

Monday, 8 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Yields mixed after jobs data lifts Fed hike odds
• Oil prices settle $1 higher after Iran and Israel say they have halted attacks

• OPEC+ approves fourth oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure

US airlines’ fuel costs soared in April to $6.5 billion

• High fuel costs to trigger airline failures and consolidation, industry chief says

Soaring fertilizer prices dim Brazilian farmers’ edge over US rivals

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China car sales downturn extends into May as VW tests EV revamp
• Chinese refiners delay projects with Middle East oil supply disrupted

Bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• Japan’s economy cools on weak capex in first quarter, revised data shows
• Japanese investors make biggest foreign stock exit in five years in May

S&P 500, Nasdaq end up as tech, chipmakers rebound

• Wall Street closed on a mixed note, led by strength in tech

Tuesday, 9 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US trade deficit narrows in April amid surging exports

• Record petroleum exports help to shrink US trade deficit in April

Oil falls as investors await clarity after Iran-Israel halt attacks

• Oil inventories headed toward multi-decade lows, US EIA warns

US existing home sales increase more than expected in May

Fed minions expected to hold US interest rates steady in 2026:

• Fed to hold rates this year, cut calls fade as war inflation persists, economists say

Bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China prepares $295 billion plan to fund nationwide AI buildout, Bloomberg News reports
• China rides AI wave as exports surge past forecast

BOJ minions thinking about loosening monetary policy a little while tightening it more directly:

• BOJ to consider pausing bond taper next fiscal year, sources say
• Weak yen, hawkish Fed adds to pressure on BOJ to accelerate hikes

S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as tech selling resumes, Trump vows to react to downed US helicopter

• Wall Street ended mostly lower after a volatile trading session

Wednesday, 10 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US consumer inflation vaults above 4% as Iran war boosts energy prices

• VIEW CPI rises at fastest rate in three years but meets market expectations
• Energy Costs Drove 60% of Inflation in May
• May 2026 CPI: The 4.2% Headline Is Energy. The Core Is Cooling.

Oil falls as traders digest escalation in US-Iran strikes

• Once an Arab oil embargo victim, US becomes world’s top oil exporter

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China Inc deploys ‘quiet’ layoffs as Beijing promotes AI adoption
• China’s factory-gate inflation at nearly four-year high in May

BOJ minions set to hike Japan’s interest rates, will do it without Chief BOJ minion:

• BOJ set to raise key rate to 1.0% in June, 1.25% by year-end
• Bank of Japan governor Ueda hospitalised, will miss June meeting

ECB minions ditch perfect monetary policy for “insurance hike”:

• ECB set for ‘insurance hike’ as Iran war fans euro zone inflation

Wall Street indexes fall more than 1%, hit by tech, Iran war worries

• Wall Street ends in the red as investors focus on Middle East tensions
• There is a ‘tectonic shift’ away from the traditional 60/40 allocation – Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

Thursday, 11 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• U.S. effective tariff rate fell to 6.7% in April
• US producer prices increase more than expected in May amid jump in energy costs
• High US mortgage rates to keep housing market subdued: Reuters poll
• Oil falls to near two-month lows as Trump calls off threatened strikes on Iran

Former Fed minion calls for rate hike while Fed minions are out on week-long news blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting:

• The Fed should hike rates; policy is ‘too stimulative’ – Fmr. Kansas City Fed president Hoenig

BOJ minions excited to hike Japan’s interest rates to highest they’ve been in 31 years:

• Bank of Japan set to hike rates to 31-year high, drop hawkish signals

ECB minions hike Eurozone interest rates, calling it ‘insurance’; exhausted from the effort, thinking about taking a break for a while:

• ECB raises interest rates in long-telegraphed move

• Lagarde comments at ECB press conference
• Europe’s “insurance” hike

ECB governors eye July pause after first hike, sources says

Wall Street ended higher as Trump signals a diplomatic path and suspends Iran strikes

• Wall Street indexes jump, Trump says strikes against Iran canceled

Friday, 12 June 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• SpaceX value surges past $2 trillion in historic IPO debut

• SpaceX by the numbers: Six charts map businesses driving the largest ever IPO
• Musk becomes the world’s first trillionaire
• The IPO leaderboard

Oil slides on Gulf peace hopes, all eyes on SpaceX debut

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s new loans miss forecasts in May as property slump curbs demand
• China’s top coal region to expand coal-to-oil output in energy security push

BOJ minions see Japan’s core inflation come in below their target, will proceed to hike Japan’s interest rates anyway:

• Japan core inflation seen below BOJ target for fourth month in May: Reuters poll

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• German government spending only thing preventing GDP fall, Bundesbank says

S&P 500 posts modest weekly gains as sector rotation favors materials and consumer staples

• Wall Street finished higher as SpaceX’s debut grabbed investor attention

• Tech sector delivers one of the best earnings quarters since 2001
• Private credit dividends look less secure as cash coverage thins

Gold’s record rally falters as bulls run into Fed rate expectations, stronger dollar

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 rose to +3.3%, bouncing back from the +3.0% it projected a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching a Starship 3 launch in which the rocket is labeled as ‘SPACEX IPO’ and the bull says ‘THAT’S A LOT BIGGER THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE!’”