S&P 500 Investors Cope with Scary News

The trading week ending Friday, 18 September 2026 was a scary one for the U.S. stock market’s bulls and bears. The week began with CEO Dario Amodei of Anthropic, the leading AI software developer, asking for government regulation to slow AI technology development down from its exponential pace, citing safety fears that company researchers claimed the preceding week includes the risk of human extinction. Meanwhile, other observers noted the proposed regulation seemed designed to lock in the firm’s competitive advantages, establishing a moat against its competitors. Either way, AI tech stocks were hit hard.

Then on Wednesday, 18 September 2026, the Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate by quarter percent, which was expected. The Fed also hinted that more rate hikes would be coming, which wasn’t as expected. That latter bit of news sent stock prices downward for the day.

But by the end of the week, S&P 500 (Index: SPX) recovered enough to close at 7,650.50, less than 0.1% below where it closed the preceding week.

Despite all that scary news, after absorbing all the information that became known during the week that was, investors collectively decided the future may not be as scary as it was being made out to be and the S&P 500 stock index ended up where they were at before the week began. Here’s the latest update of the alternative futures chart.

Here are the week’s market moving headlines.

Monday, 14 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Anthropic CEO urges AI companies to slow development

• Anthropic selects Nasdaq for IPO, Business Insider reports

• Anthropic tells investors it will be profitable for second straight quarter

Oil hits $108 after Saudi Arabia closes vital export pipeline

• Saudi pipeline outage threatens loss of 4% of global oil supply

US rail fuel surcharges on grain hit record highs, squeezing farmers in harvest season

US 10-year yields reach 5%, highest since 2023

Fed minions expected to deliver rate hike this week:

• Fed’s table is set for a rate hike, a first under Warsh

• Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• AI-linked Asian stocks slump after top lab CEOs call for slowing down technology’s development

• China state newspaper blasts Anthropic’s calls to slow AI as ‘Cold War’ tactic
• How China is preparing for the risk of AI escaping human control

China central bank plans new metrics to rein in banks’ long-dated bonds holdings, sources say

China August bank lending disappoints as credit demand stays weak

Wall Street closed in the red after oil climbed and AI concerns grew louder

• Wall Street ends down, calls for AI slowdown pummel chipmakers

• Trading Day: AI-pocalypse now

Tuesday, 15 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Stock market slips as 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% ahead of Fed decision

• Global bond yields hit fresh highs, raising stakes for big borrowers
• US Treasury’s Bessent says bond yields reflect ‘global issues’

High mortgage rates to keep US housing market revival elusive

Oil settles $3 higher on Yanbu disruption, Saudi cargo cancellations

• U.S. oil tops $105 as Saudi Arabia reportedly cancels some crude cargoes after pipeline closure

Growth signs, bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s factories rev up but slower consumption highlights deepening economic imbalances

• China’s factory output growth quickens in August, retail sales slow

China home prices stay weak, keeping pressure on economy

China’s economy shows signs of weakness as investment slumps

China tightens control of overseas travel in sweeping new law

Wall Street closed in the red ahead of the upcoming FOMC rate decision

• Wall Street ends lower as oil spikes and the benchmark Treasury yield breaches 5%
• Stock market slips as 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% ahead of Fed decision

• Global bond yields hit fresh highs, raising stakes for big borrowers
• US Treasury’s Bessent says bond yields reflect ‘global issues’

Wednesday, 16 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US poverty rate dips to lowest on record, Census Bureau says
• US retail sales rebound sharply in August
• US import prices jump in August on strength in capital, consumer goods
• Oil slips as Saudi Arabia offers more crude via Oman; diesel near record high

Fed minions hike Federal Funds Rate by quarter point, hint more rate hikes coming:

• Fed raises rates in search of ‘timelier’ drop in inflation, sees more tightening ahead

• Fed’s Warsh lays out forces driving up bond yields

• Warsh says Fed focus to stay on inflation, underlying trends have not meaningfully improved

Fed policymakers forecast one more rate hike this year

Trump calls for interest rates of 1% or lower, after Fed hikes to 3.75%-4.00%

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s slower loan growth is the new normal, central bank governor says
• Chinese investors rush into US stocks as Beijing opens wider path overseas

BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan’s interest rates again:

• BOJ set to raise interest rates to 31-year high as inflation risks loom

Wall Street closed lower after the latest rate hike decision by the FOMC

• Wall St ends lower after Fed hikes interest rates, sees more tightening ahead

Thursday, 17 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Rising oil, rates and yields brew up stagflation cocktail for markets
• Major US banks raise prime rate after first Fed rate hike since 2023

• US rate options signal market can absorb higher Treasury yields

Oil prices extend losses as fears of Middle East supply disruptions ease

US pending home sales unexpectedly rise in August, trend remains weak

Fed minions believed to have hiked U.S. interest rates to build up their “credibility”:

• Fed builds credibility, but hawkish turn leaves investors edgy

Bigger trouble developing out of China:

• China’s Huawei says AI chip demand outstrips supply as it steps up Nvidia challenge

• Chinese AI not powerful enough to see rogue-AI risks, says Huawei

Chinese automakers scour Europe for factories ahead of EU local content rules, says BYD adviser

BOJ minions want value of Japan’s currency to behave the way they want:

• Japan vows effort to maintain orderly yen moves

Friday, 18 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices set for weekly fall on easing fears over Saudi supply disruption

• Record US diesel prices squeeze farmers; food prices may rise

US factory production falls in August; outlook clouded by rising costs

Fed minions new policy of less communication now has Wall Street hanging on every word:

• Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes
• Fed’s Bowman says changes to bank stress test coming soon

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s new exit rules stoke fears of ever-tighter border controls
• China set to keep loan rates steady for 16th consecutive month in September
• China’s Xi calls for ‘bigger, stronger’ advanced manufacturing sector

BOJ minions deliver interest rate hike as expected, market disappointed they didn’t hike more to prop up Japan’s currency:

• BOJ lifts rates to 31-year high, pivots towards preemptive inflation fight

• BOJ Governor Ueda’s comments at news conference

Yen slumps to two-week low after BOJ rate hike underwhelms

ECB minions claim they’re not just looking at oil prices while thinking about hiking Eurozone interest rates:

• ECB’s Vujcic cools oil-fuelled bets on rate hikes
• Euro zone consumers nudge up inflation expectations, ECB poll shows

S&P 500, Nasdaq advance, turning the page on a tumultuous week

• Wall Street closes mixed as Treasury yields rebound

After the Fed’s quarter point rate hike on Wednesday, 16 September 2026, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool anticipates three more quarter point rate hikes in the weeks ahead. The next rate change is expected on 28 October (2026-Q4), would increase the Federal Funds Rate to a target range of 4.00-4.25%, and is about six weeks earlier than what the FedWatch tool foresaw a week earlier. The remaining two would appear set to follow at 12-week intervals, coming after the Fed meets on 27 January (2027-Q1) and 28 April (2027-Q2),

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s forecast of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in 2026-Q3 dipped to +4.4, declining from the +4.7% annualized growth it projected a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear who are visiting a haunted house and scream at signs that say ‘BE SCARED OF AI’ and ‘MORE FED RATE HIKES COMING’”.