The unbalanced

It doesn’t help that we lost a mess of jobs last month. Over forty-two thousand of them, when economists had predicted a mild increase.

Is this a result of the Trumpian trade war? Not exactly. But maybe. The real impact of the latest tariffs will be felt later – along with whatever else our new enemies have in store. The real toll is on business investment. Would you build a factory in SW Ontario or Trois Rivieres or Burnaby right now, knowing the future is as clear as mud?

By the way, wage gains have just slipped behind inflation. Income increases have not been this low since 2017. Oops.

Yesterday Trump said on social media that the Canadian economy will collapse. He’s a buffoon. But still the most powerful angry old man on the planet.

But let’s forget that. It’s Carney’s burden. In this moment he’s probably the right guy to shoulder it for us.

This week came word from the housing market – always a good barometer of how Canadians are feeling about this, whether confident or worried.

In the GTA the big news: average prices have sunk under the $1 million mark – down year/year almost 3% (to $993,400). Sales were marginally lower – about 2%, while inventory has also taken a hit (down 14%). The sales-to-new-listing ratio at just over 40% shows some market balance, even if buyers are scarce.

“If inventory tightens and home prices begin to rise, some buyers may face a tradeoff between waiting for greater economic certainty and purchasing before prices move higher,” says head wizard Daniel Steinfeld (shamelessly scaring people).

Vancouver? Sales off 4% from last August. Prices are “drifting downwards across all market segments” with the benchmark off 5% from 2025 levels to $1.08 million. Total inventory is down a little but still 20% above the long-term average. Realtors say the torpor is expected to last the rest of the year, but teh markets will stay broadly balanced. No dump.

Across the ditch in Victoria sales dipped from July but were a robust 12% higher than a year ago. Condos up 15%. Detached ahead by an equal amount. “Sales activity for the month was stronger than we’ve seen in five years,” says boss Chair Fergus Kyne, “while inventory remained at healthy levels. These conditions continue to support our stable, balanced market.”

Hmm. There’s the word again Balance. It’s everywhere, until we cross the Alberta border.

Calgary sales took a hit. Down 16% last month. The average price lost another per cent, to $569,000 – making this the one of the cheapest large-population markets in the country. Detached sales fell 12%, with inventory swelling to four months. Things are dire for condos. The supply of available units has hit six months, and prices have dropped 13% – down to an average of just $295,000. Incredible.

And Edmonton’s also wobbling. Property sales plopped by more than 15% in August from the previous month and are down almost 10% year/year. Inventory has piled up, and is 15% greater than twelve months ago as buyers shrink. This is a major city where the average home price is now down to less than $470,000.

Says the real estate board czar, Darlene Reid: “Supply is ample, but unless demand keeps up, we are likely to see downward pressure on prices beyond the usual seasonal patterns.”

Yup. It’s all about demand. And for people to consider buying, they need certainty – just like the dudes making business investment decisions. Canada is a vaguely uncertain place at the moment. Alberta is steeped in division and doubt. Self-inflicted wounds of insecurity as the premier has stoked and facilitated a secessionist movement which will ultimately be crushed, but in the meantime is robbing Albertans of their home equity. For nothing but the glory and political survival of Danielle Smith.

She’s off to Tennessee, by the way. For a personal trip at a time when most Canadians have been assiduously avoiding USA travel. It’s consistent with her visits to Mar-a-Lago, her weakening of Team Canada’s position by public refusing to consider an energy rebuke to autocratic America, her selfies with Trump, her allowing a separation referendum in the midst of a trade war (feeding the anti-Canada message of the White House) and her refusal to condemn officials from the US State Department for meeting with the AB yahoo, Montana-loving rebels to plan Canada’s demise.

Now folks with houses in Calgary, Red Deer, Edmonton, Lloydminster and everywhere else in the province are a little poorer. Not because of Ottawa. Her.

Nobody will forget this, cowgirl.

About the picture: “Long term reader and a proud Canadian in Southern Alberta,” writes Brad. You probably already recorded this in your calendar, but Saturday the 15th of August was International Cat Day, the one day cats are legitimately, graciously and generously allowed to pose for the Hallowed Halls of the GreaterFool blog! This is “Simba,” who is either anxiously awaiting the next episode of the CBC “Front Burner Podcast” show, or testing out the hypothesis that a cat never jumps on a hot stove twice.   Thankfully, no animals were harmed in Simba’s spontaneous creation of this photoshoot!  Hope you continue to heal from your traumatic assault, and thanks again for everything you do.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/09/04/the-unbalanced/