It's not the economy, stupid

“Europe” could see €28bn wiped off the value of its economies, says an investment bank. Up to 0.2% of the European Union’s GDP could be “erased”. A chaotic dismantling would plunge the EU into political turmoil and cause a material hit to private sector confidence. There would probably be a material decline in investment spending.

More of those arbitrary Brexit warnings?

No, this forcast is about what effect the suspension or dismantling of the Schengen agreement might have. After all:

Goods worth €2.8 trillion travel within the Schengen area every year, while 1.7 million EU citizens commute across borders, earning their salaries in different European countries.

Big numbers, then.

So are EU countries thinking maybe they should stick with Schengen? No. EU ministers will gather later this month to decide on whether impose a two-year suspension of the Schengen agreement. But it’s pretty much gone. Those economic predictions won’t give the scared politicians pause. Ministers will take the economic hit, because of the politics.

And so it is with Brexit. In discussing it, our government are desperate to keep the focus on the economics. There is this forecast and that forecast. Warnings of apocalypse bring headlines.

The government demands economic detail from Leavers. They are desperate for us to play on their pitch.

Yet, as all three Leave advocates on last week’s Question Time said, the Leave case isn’t about that. It’s about our fading democracy and sovereignty.

The government know they’re on shaky ground here. They’re twisting and turning on sovereignty (more on that in a future post).

But on democracy they have no answer to us at all.

Of course our arrangements aren’t perfect. But being ruled by 27 other countries is obviously worse.

This may be our last chance for many years for us to return to democratic government.

This time it’s not about the economy.