The curve

When, a couple of weeks ago, the death figures for w/e 20th March came out, I commented that we’d have to wait until the first week or so in May, given the 11 day delay, to see whether the lockdown had reduced the R0 of the virus to below 1. Yesterday’s figures, to 3rd April, show an overall increase of some 6,000 deaths a week. So far, I still hold with my early take on the roll-out. The 10th April figures, out on the 21st, will give us the curve. My guess, and it’s no more than that, it that we could be 15,000 deaths a week above average. So far I knew personally only one victim of the Wuhan virus, who died last week. I suspect some of you will be in the same position.

The government is doing what anyone piloting a boat in grunty weather does, balancing course and speed over ground with the effects of wind, waves and tide. To avoid going beam-on in dangerous seas you may have to go in a direction for a while you don’t want. Or in really grunty weather, get into deep water and ride it out. The government are balancing excess deaths against both their ability to maintain public order and keep the economy from tanking by more than 20% of GDP.

You’ll find various bloggers and tweeters around the manor all claiming to know exactly what the answer is. Well, if they were really that clever, someone in authority would have noticed by now, I reckon. So like most folk of the Realm, I put my trust in the government’s response, knowing it to be flawed and imperfect, but nonetheless better than any alternative. I don’t know the answer, you see, and don’t condemn anyone else’s opinion because like the lucky sod picking the winner in a sweepstake they may be right. Or they may have picked the munter that falls at the first fence. We need the evidence – the curve – to validate future plans.

However, the realisation across the world is that herd immunity is the only outcome that will allow us to rescue what we can of the world we had at the end of 2019, and that means getting some 60% of the population infected, starting with those most likely to survive. That means allowing the R0 of the Wuhan virus to rise above 1. That’s why Denmark, Germany and others are planning to re-open schools and universities and manage a return to a simulacrum of normal life. Albeit one in which facemasks will be the norm for some time to come. Whilst continuing to protect those at most risk.

And that’s the next hurdle. There seems to be a consensus about opening schools early in May, but hundreds of millions of facemasks will be needed, and indications are that supplies are not due to come on-stream until July and August. If the MSM knew their arse from their elbow, instead of destroying their own cred by trying to ambush the government, that’s the sort of question they should be asking.