The media myth of the Badenoch bounce
The media myth of the Badenoch bounce
Kemi Badenoch has had stronger performances but Conservative triumphalism is premature
In Britain, the traditional media’s coverage of politics relies heavily on an endless merry-go-round of stock stories — the wacky rigmarole, as it is sometimes derisively referred to online. There is the “gaffe”, so-called, when a politician tells the truth at a place or time they were not meant to. There is good old-fashioned sleaze, usually financial. Sexual misadventures at Westminster used to be a tabloid favourite, but such reports are becoming rarer, due to changing social attitudes and the various shots fired across the bows of a free press by a censorious establishment. Backbench plots against party leaders, real or imagined, keep the circus rolling on for a few news cycles, as do rumours about chaotic scenes in 10 Downing Street or yet another round of shady briefings about some minister’s inability to manage their civil service underlings.
Then of course we have the “bounce”, i.e. a putative increase in popularity for some individual or their party, usually said to have followed a change of leadership or a big speech or some exciting new announcement, or even a series of strong performances in the House of Commons.
The whole piece is well worth reading as the embarrassing shabbiness of UK politics seems to have become a feature rather than a temporary difficulty.
It is quite possible, given the volatility of the British political scene, that in a year or two’s time the Tories will be recovering strongly in the polls. The Burnham honeymoon will be over by the spring, with a looming fuel crisis, high energy costs, and very little fiscal headroom for the government. But the Tories being the beneficiary of Labour’s looming troubles is far from guaranteed. They are still viewed with suspicion and hostility by great swathes of the electorate, not least on the right. Despite the leadership’s big talk about lessons learned, and their robust rhetoric on key issues like national identity and crime, there remains an influential liberal faction within the party, which will attempt to derail any serious attempt to unpick the Blairite settlement by, for example, repeal of the Equality Act or the Human Rights Act. Badenoch can talk a good game and build a strong personal brand, but talk of a bounce is misleading at best given that, if an election were called tomorrow, the Tories would struggle to hold on to their historically low tally of 118 seats.
Source: https://akhaart.blogspot.com/2026/10/the-media-myth-of-badenoch-bounce.html
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