FORECAST 2014

Once again all of the crystal ball readers get set for the new year. Right now if you’re forecasting you have not made one wrong prediction so you can claim perfection, at least until the end of the next year. At this time I can single out several of the prognosticators for special recognition. Jim Rogers for one has been very accurate with his analysis on the equity market and precious metal market. He has stated over the past couple of years that he was very reluctant to add to his gold holdings and felt the Fed could keep the bull equity market going as long as they were willing to counterfeit fiat. He has reiterated his outlook that resources are in a secular bull market and that holding commodities will ultimately pay rewards. 

Jim Rickards also has been very accurate on predicting the assault on the precious metals for some time. He has recently turned more positive on this sector but also adds that miners are under the control of bankers and can short term still have difficulty. Rickard’s sources remain inside the system and he has a proven track record in this sector. 

I know that many investors in this sector have been decimated and many that have held on will be quick to exit their positions once the miners move up to initial resistance levels, which can result in this sector being a very profitable trading sector for those quick enough and watching these profit taking areas. I have not been trading these moves with any large volume and have instead elected to ride the bulk of my positions down. You are welcome to criticize this and I might join you, but as I’ve said throughout the miner sector slaughter during the past 18 months, I was finished trading them and would take my punishment and hold on.  Many of you, I believe, now see, as I have repeatedly stated, how powerful the cartel is, and some of you assume they can even manipulate Nature’s forces ultimately. They cannot, and they know that. I’m not surprised by the sentiment capitulation in the miner trade, but I am surprised by how many retail traders have not been accumulating miners at these levels. I understand many of the hedge funds not buying, since they are only momo boyz and will not move until the insiders are positioned and have made the bottom obvious. The low in gold was set in mid 2012 and has held. We’ve made a double bottom and still could see a final weekly candlestick low, but the loss of bullion to the East is extreme so I wouldn’t want to be short if that is wrong.

The objective factors that no one denies now is the massive flow of gold bullion to the East. If you deny that, then you are truly delusional and have no intellectual honesty. This IS the key for anyone understanding the ultimate destiny of the REAL price of precious metals. The dumb retail money (and hedges/money managers) own virtually NO physical metal and there only exposure is in paper gold products designed to fleece them and ultimately provide a control mechanism for spot and futures gold price. Don’t join the crowd at these levels…..again this is directed at physical gold. Buying miners here is for those with excess liquidity only ie. THOSE that can AFFORD to lose their money….ie ME…. and the Jim Sinclairs, Jim Rogers etc.

I have been amazed by the subterfuge the Central Banks have been able to get by with this year and 2014 may start off the same. The boyz are coming back from their vacations in South Africa and South America and will resume trading in one week. Then the action will begin. I enjoy monitoring this historical time, but I know many of you are in pain and don’t find this sector collapse as interesting as I. More and more people I am coming in contact with now seem to be aware that the system is broken and I am impressed by how resolute they are in their preparation. Many of these people have no idea what my stance is and offer their opinions readily. That is a marked change from the past 6 years. Best wishes to all of you next year. No doom and gloom here, only reality, and I won’t put my head into that ostrich hole, but you are more than welcome to……just remember what is exposed above ground. GL