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Assessing "Big Short" Michael Burry's crash warning

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A number of readers asked me to comment on Michael Burry’s forecast of a crash, according to a report from Business Insider.

Doomsday is finally here, he hinted in a since-deleted tweet this week.
The fund manager of “The Big Short” fame shared a screenshot of a S&P 500 chart, showing the benchmark stock-market index has tumbled 18% from its December peak, despite several blistering rallies this year.
“And yet I keep getting asked ‘wen crash?’” he tweeted, poking fun at some of his followers’ poor spelling, and underlining his view that the market collapse is underway.
Burry suggested in May that the S&P 500 could drop as low as 1,900 points, or another 53%, over the next few years, based on how past crashes have played out. Moreover, he has dismissed the rebounds in stocks this year as bear-market rallies or “dead cat bounces” — temporary reprieves along the road to inevitable disaster.

The S&P 500 has a downside potential of 1900? How plausible is that scenario?
The full post can be found here.


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