Modern Missile Mayhem

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What does the future of war look like?

Drones will play a huge role, clearly. We’ve covered this angle extensively over the past 2 years.

But there’s another class of asymmetric weapons we need to talk about.

Missiles.

Especially when used in combination with large numbers of drones, missiles are a game-changer on today’s battlefield.

Let’s examine the evidence.

New Evidence

Before the war between Russia and Ukraine, we didn’t know what role missiles would play in a modern war.

Most of the evidence we had was from one-sided exchanges like the U.S. vs. Iraq. American cruise missiles were highly effective, but the country had poor air defenses. It was a bit like shooting fish in a barrel. With a really nice gun.

Many analysts claimed Russia’s missiles were crude and inaccurate. After all, they historically had been. The old Russian SCUD missiles launched by Saddam Hussein had a CEP of up to 1 kilometer (CEP is an accuracy rating which means 50% of missiles fired would land within a circle 1 km from the target).

Originally, ballistic missiles were primarily a vehicle for nuclear weapons. So they didn’t need to be super accurate.

But the world has entered a new phase. With satellite navigation, better electronics, and AI, precision missiles are sprouting up like weeds.

Many countries have effective missile programs today. China and Russia are now selling sophisticated models to friendly nations.

The tech is improving rapidly, and proliferating around the world.

Cruise vs. Ballistic

Let’s go over some basics quickly. The two main types of missiles are cruise and ballistic. I made the graphic below to show the difference:

Cruise missiles fly very low, powered by jet engines throughout their flight. They can fly very long distances, and are difficult to detect and shoot down due to their low altitude.

The U.S. is a leader in cruise missile technology, where we pioneered long-range precision weapons. Our stealth cruise missiles, such as the LRASM, are probably the most advanced in the world.

Meanwhile ballistic missiles follow a parabolic arc, with some models flying into space before re-entering the atmosphere. They are powered by rocket engines, fueled by either solid or liquid propellant. Ballistic missiles are fast, and can surpass hypersonic speeds (greater than Mach 5, or 3,836 MPH).

Ballistic missiles are also difficult to intercept due to their high altitude and speed.

Lessons from Ukraine and Iran

The conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have taught us much about where missiles fit into the modern battlefield.

And they have a critical role to play. Both cruise and ballistic models.

Speed is one advantage missiles have over drones. The fastest jet drones today travel around 400 MPH. Hypersonic ballistic missiles, on the other hand, can reach speeds from 4,000 MPH all the way up to 16,000 MPH. Anything moving that fast is going to be almost impossible to intercept.

The largest drone warheads weigh around 200 lbs. Less than half of that is explosive, and the rest is the weight of the steel surrounding it.

Missile warheads can weigh up to 4,000 lbs. But a more typical warhead weight is around 1,500 lb.

So when you need to take out something quickly, and make sure it’s destroyed, a missile is the obvious choice. Think ammo depots, troop gathering points, bunkers, command headquarters, air defenses, enemy missile launchers, and fuel tanks.

Russia has used its impressive array of missiles to take out military sites throughout Ukraine. And from Iran, we saw unprecedented long-distance (2,000 km+) precision strikes on targets in Israel. And a lot of shorter-range strikes.

All of the questions about missiles have been answered. They are an absolutely critical element in modern war.

Sci-Fi Territory

Next up: Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs). It’s a mouthful of a name. But the tech is downright devious.

These weapons can reach ridiculous speeds of Mach 22 (16,000+ MPH) or higher. They fly to the edge of space, then use that energy to glide to the target. HGVs can maneuver to avoid air defenses.

And they strike with such speed, that the kinetic energy alone is equivalent to a massive bomb. Add in 500kg of high-explosive, and HGVs are terrifying weapons.

Here’s what an HGV trajectory looks like:

We’re getting into science-fiction territory here, but a number of these weapons are already in production.

Russia has the Avangard HGV:

The rocket boosts the weapon into the edge of space, then the glide vehicle deploys:

Russia hasn’t used the Avangard in battle yet. How they managed to produce alloys that survive Mach 22 speeds is top secret. Not to mention the communication tech, which needed to overcome serious obstacles like the missile being surrounded by a bubble of glowing plasma during high speeds.

China and North Korea also have HGVs. This is an area where the U.S. is behind the competition.

HGVs are too expensive and top-secret for most real-world use, but there are applications where the cost and risk could be justified. In the future, though, they will likely become a standard weapons system.

Blurred Lines

Is the weapon below a cruise missile, or a drone?

Source: U.S. Army

This is Russia’s new Geran-5 jet drone. It has a jet engine and a 200 lb warhead. It can reach a cruising speed of 370 MPH, and has a range of 1,000 km (621 miles).

The U.S. Army estimates that the Geran-5 costs around $125,000. That’s far cheaper than Russia’s cruise missiles, which run about 8x more.

This is what I mean when saying the line between missiles and drones will increasingly blur. This is essentially a mini cruise missile.

We’re going to see a lot of weapons like the Geran-5 going forward. Here in the U.S., a number of companies, such as Anduril, are working on similar systems.

Eventually swarms of these types of “drones” will scour the battlefield for targets. The line between drone and missile will continue to blur.

But there will always be a place for larger cruise and ballistic missiles. As we’ve seen in Iran and Ukraine, these weapons offer unique capabilities.

Going forward, missiles and drones will become the cornerstones of war. The importance of manned jets, tanks, and artillery will fade.

We’re entering a new era of war. One where asymmetric weapons are the apex predators. The implications are far-reaching. For the American empire, defense stocks, and geopolitical game theory. We’ll explore it all soon.

In the meantime, here are some prior articles from our Modern Warfare series:

• Modern Warfare: Lessons from Ukraine
• Modern Warfare 2: Lessons from Iran
• The Evolution of Hunter-Killers
• Drones Invade Moscow
• Cheap Drones Swarm the Future

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