ES Morning Update October 8th 2026

One more move up to hit the 787.13 FP target, which might hit today (seems unlikely), tomorrow, or Monday at the latest. After that there are two windows of time where a low should appear. One is around the 16th of this month and the other around the 28th, but I do not know what the price will be at either low (meaning the 715 FP’s or the 692 one). I’ve went over all the different scenario’s that I can think of as possible, so we just have to wait and see I guess.

As for my lean… I think we hit the 715 zone FP’s on the first drop to fill them both, and then bounce hard for 3-4 days, followed by another drop into the end of the month to retest that low and “ideally” piece it to hit and fill the 692 FP. That would be a perfect ABC drop to reach about 12% in total for the entire move and the first move down would be around 9% (the A wave).

If it drops to the 692 FP into and around the 16th then of course I think that will be the low and the next drop into and around the 28th will be a higher low of some degree. You have to be flexible as either pattern could happen, but the date “windows” should be pretty accurate for “a bottom” of some amount. Meaning that “if” by around the 16th the market has not declined very much, like only to say 7400-7500, then that’s all there will be for that drop as a bounce should follow afterwards that last for 3-5 days (max).

Then the C wave down into the end of the month will reach the FP’s around the 715 zone, or the 692 FP if the market really wants to scare the crap out of everyone. Personally I would love to see the first drop go all the way to the 692 FP and then a higher low for the second drop, but the market doesn’t usually give me what I “prefer” as it’s job is to trick everyone. But I’m getting ready and prepare for all outcomes as I only need to catch one of the scenario’s correctly as the gains from that one move will pay for any other mistakes made on other scenario trades. Today or tomorrow should see the upside FP hit and the decline should start next week. Slow at first and then it should pick up steam later in the week. That’s everything I know to share.

Have a great weekend.