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GBPEUR exchange rates future – when to buy euros, when to sell euros (Steve Eakins)

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This week exchange rates have been steady with little movement due to limited data releases and the US markets being closed on Monday.  Today however the markets wake and over the next few days there is a number of key reports being released by the UK Government which could easily move markets by several cents adding as much as £1,750 on a €150,000 purchase, these are:

  • Today we have key UK Inflation figures – if this figure falls as expected it increases the chance of more QE following so will probably have a negative impact on strength of GBP exchange rates.
  • Tomorrow there is Bank of England minutes and Public Sector Net borrowing – This will probably be a none event on the markets as it is unlikely there will be any surprises with regards to the vote for QE and interest rate change.  However if there is any indication of a further increase to QE expect rates to move significantly.
  • Thursday we see UK Retail figures and UK GDP figures – Retail is linked with upwards of 60% of the UK economy which makes this report very influential on the markets and the price of the pound. It is expected to show an improvement which if confirmed could result in the biggest day gain for the pound this week.  GDP figures are also expected to show an improvement making Thursday perhaps the best time to trade this week if buying with the pound.

This week I would be surprised to see GBPEUR break out of the 1.1725-1.1875.  I expect to see GBPEUR rates fall over the next 48 hours and then re-gain the losses seen on Thursday.  As a result Pound buyers may want to wait till later today or Wednesday morning.  Pound Sellers have a more difficult decision, even though Thursday is expected to see gains for the GBPEUR pairing on the day, will it give a better price than were it currently sits. Personally I would not take the risk and sell the pound this morning before these bad releases start to be released.

As you can see rates never move in a straight line so timing a trade can make a great deal of difference.  For example the expected range for this week when buying €200,000 equates to an additional cost of £2,250 if timed well/poorly.

If you are in the market for foreign currency and would like our personal view on your situation please feel free to contact us for more information.  We have access to award winning exchange rates along with several contract types available here over that offered from the banks which may be a useful tool this week like Limit orders, stop/loss orders, rate alerts and Spike notifications. New clients to our service have benefited from these exchange rates offered, saving considerable sums against both the banks and other brokers in the industry. Contact us on +44 (0) 1494 787 478 or email me directly – Steve Eakins – [email protected]


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