Lunar Horse Coins Are Bolting Out Of The Stable

At the time of writing this article (early August) there are already around half a dozen designs which have been released in the public domain, one of which (the Tokelau 2014 Lunar Horse 1oz Silver Coin) is already in the hands of collectors with several ‘unboxing’ videos making their way to YouTube in July. This coin is the second in the Tokelau Lunar Coin Series. The maximum mintage is 50,000. The coin is currently listed on Modern Coin Mart’s website (they have exclusive distribution rights in the US) at a rate of $27.25 per coin (in bulk 200 coin purchase), which is 37% above spot. They are also being sold in graded packaging (from NGC and PCGS) for a higher premium.

Several other designs have been publicly revealed, most so far appear to have been commissioned specifically by dealers to capitalise on expected popularity for lunar horse coins. They include a 5 ounce silver proof coin released by Downies in Australia (legal tender of Niue, struck by PAMP) which has selective gold plating and a mintage of only 500 coins; a unique feature includes the mintage number being stamped onto the reeded edge of the coin. Another several coins available for preorder with legal tender status in Niue or Palau appear to have been commissioned by a German dealer and vary in size 1/2oz to 1oz with various finishes (including partially gold gilded and selective use of colour). The continuation of these ‘first issue’ coins into an ongoing series will likely depend on the popularity of these releases.

I have not yet seen any gold lunar coins available for preorder or sale, the lower price point of silver coins makes them a much more popular option for investors and collectors (so the number of gold coin offerings is usually much lower). Even the most popular of gold lunar coins do not appreciate in value anywhere near that of their silver counterparts, so for investment purposes you are best sticking with purchasing silver lunar coins unless you expect gold to significantly outperform silver in the foreseeable future.

We can also expect to see the regular offerings of lunar series coins which will be released over the coming months and include those of Singapore Mint (Macau Series, their 5oz silver coin with mintage of 500 is usually quick to sell out), PAMP (lunar themed bars, due for release in late August), Royal Canadian Mint, China Mint and New Zealand Mint (who takes particular care in providing unique and high quality presentation packaging). The Perth Mint will also have their regular line-up with a mix of bullion coins and numismatic releases, including a special coloured set of square coins destined for the Chinese market.

Half a decade ago there was only a handful of mints producing lunar coins designs, but the increasing interest in physical precious metals as a ‘safe haven’ asset (not always price safety, but their lack of counterparty risk) has bought a larger pool of buyers to the coin market . The perfect example to illustrate these changing dynamics is to look at the demand for Perth Mint’s Lunar Series II Coins (specifically the 1oz bullion coins with a mintage limit of 300,000), which started in 2008 and runs to 2019. The first couple of coins in Series II weren’t particularly strong sellers (and didn’t sell out in the year of issue, they were later minted up to their limits), but after interest increased we saw the 2011 1oz bullion rabbit sell out in around 5 months, the 2012 dragon took only days and the 2013 snake has also seen strong sales, selling out in 2 months. I expect the time it takes for the horse to sell out will be somewhere between that of the dragon and snake.

The Perth Mint’s Lunar Series Coins are probably the most well recognised globally and their success has in a large part been the driver behind many other mints jumping onto the lunar coin bandwagon. To give an example of just how sought after the coins are, the Perth Mint received expressions of interest from dealers and wholesalers for 1.2 million of the 1oz lunar snake bullion coin (4x maximum mintage). Perth Mint coins have been especially popular in European countries and examples of premiums they can fetch are observable on sites like Silber-Corner or eBay Germany.