Social Distancing Likely Needed Until Mid-2021 Say Researchers
Significant relaxation of social distancing measures could lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19.
The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, provides one option for preventing a large second wave.
Other options include the very gradual easing of restrictions across the whole population or limiting restrictions to specific sectors of the population.
“Ultimately, the scenario which minimises deaths from COVID-19 required long-term social distancing until a vaccine can be delivered”, says lead author.
A cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures is required to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service, a team of infectious disease experts from the University of Warwick, who have investigated the impact of current lockdown measures upon the spread of COVID-19 in the UK, has found.
This may lead to the need for social distancing measures, varying by region and in the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, to be in place until mid-2021.
By using a detailed mathematical model calibrated against data on the age distribution of cases, as well as the changing numbers of those being hospitalized and dying as a result of the disease, the researchers have been able to forecast both the short and long term impact of disease as lockdown measures are relaxed.
The researchers found that significant relaxation of social distancing measures could lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies they projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic.
In contrast, the reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required.
The full description of the results is in a scientific paper, Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies, that is now available as a pre-print on medRxiv: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20083683v1
The researchers, led by Professor Matt Keeling, director of the Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), simulated a selection of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures starting in May 2020 and assessed the impact on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment and deaths as key quantities of concern.
The future strategies investigated included: the impact of reducing adherence with the lock-down rules; ongoing shielding of elder age groups while relaxing measures for younger members of the population; and short application of stringent social distancing measures using region-based triggers that came close to ICU hospital capacity.
“Our model predicts that, if significant relaxation of social distancing measures was introduced in May, the UK would have experienced a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 and the health service would be overwhelmed by a second epidemic wave,” said Prof. Keeling. “To prevent this second wave, we require strategies in which the social distancing measures are relaxed slowly, either gradually across the entire population or by targeting different regions or age-groups. Ultimately, the scenario which minimises deaths from COVID-19 requires long-term social distancing until a vaccine can be delivered.”
Dr Tildesley, a co-author of the study added, “We are working round the clock to understand the complex patterns of spread, and find ways in which life can take steps back towards normality without endangering lives. The COVID-19 pandemic is the largest event that we have been involved with in our careers, and we are keen to do anything that we can to help to provide advice that will help to control the spread of disease and to protect the most vulnerable members of society.”
The research carried out by the Warwick team also provides evidence in support of the lockdown measures introduced by the UK government in late March in order to control the growth of the epidemic and shows the necessity for a measured approach for releasing lockdown.
Contacts and sources:
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This is the biggest bull crap I have ever seen . The numbers are ramped up with heart attack patients , gun shot victims , car wreaks , copd Lung disease and whatever else can be sleed in to the claim for the $12,000 hospital claims . If an a viable lung machine is a viable then the patient is put into a coma and the lung machine installed . For this they get $39,000 . All lies !!! This fraud by hospitals are helping the Bill Gates pattented Covid 2006 designed virus . But this virus did not do the deed . So we inject the Rochafeller 2010 document on how to take over the world . Create a pandimic , lock the people down destroy the food supply and crash the money system as businesses go bankrupt . Sound familiar ? Now when Bill Gates created this virus they done 20 animal clinical tests . They found out that 4 anti viral Mediceans kills this virus . They needed this so when Fauchi who paid 1.3 million to Wuhan lab to manufacture viles and distribute the virus , they would not be effected also . Bill Gates lung virus that he predicted 1997 that would push the population of 2020 to extinction level events did not do its job . His depopulation agenda . But now we want to blame the evils on China . But the numbers are lies . 2017 had more deaths than 2020 . And the numbers run close to 99,000 for the past 10 years . The influenza kills more than his bio weapon virus . Alcohol kills more than this virus . The kill rate as compare to the worlds population is 0.17 and for child 0.01 . This crap is a joke ! But they are using the Rockafeller world take over plan for their Vatican Esau Edomite Jew ( not Israel- Judea ) NWO and UN Ishmael Islamic world dictatorship . The Beach is the best place to be ! Why because moisture kills the virus , heat kills the virus , the oxygen , hydrogen electron release at the shores edge detoxes this virus , the sun with its UVA , UVB and UVC kills this virus , the oxygen release at the shores edge kills this virus and the sun converting the calcium to vitimin D3 boosts your bodies defenses to help kill this virus . So now why do doctors who go to college for at lease 10-12 years with a bill of over 1 million dollars to pay back , not want you to go to the best place on earth to help your body rid any Covid virus . Oh one more this the human corona cold virus they test everyone with is not the Covid virus test . Si why do they do the human corona virus test which has a possibility of victimizing also 50-75 % of the population ? Look on the back of the Lysol wipes it kills the human corona virus . Wait this was out years before this Covid virus was even announced . More lies ! We the people need to stand up and say enough is enough ! Then try those who have committed crimes against humanity ! The hospitals are near empty plus videos are out there that if looked closely you will find dummies lying on the stretchers . The dummies they use to teach new nurses with . Now our representatives have passed a HR 6666 bill that gives the health department the power to invade your home with the human corona virus test made in China . These tests have been proven to have the corona virus and the Covid virus . So what the hell kind of an agenda is this ? It’s still a depopulation plan !!! Because once they take the person of interest , they can do anything they wish to that individual and their folks will never know what they did , because they are not allowed to communicate with you . This bull crap needs to stop !!! Now I challenge you search the Internet and find what I have written out ! From 2020-2030 95% of earth’s population will disappear because the billionaires want the entire earth for themselves . Proof is Georgia Guide Stones were they brag their agenda in your faces . The the UN NWO 2020-2030 agenda , then the Bill Gates vaccine agenda . Bragging in your faces what they are going to do to you . Just because they were able to steal your gold and silver and hand you pierces of paper with pictures of dead presidents they now think they are gods . They crap just like you do , eat just like you do , no wait they eat aborted babies and young children and drink their blood with which they have angered the child before killing them to take advantage of the adrenaline and endorphins to get a super high . Plus these bastards are children of lucifer or better known as reptilians with negative blood . Science also states they are aliens and closer kin to the reptilians . Many shape shift on TV when looked at from frame to frame . So look closely , this is a bull crap agenda , a depopulation agenda and a take over agenda ! And the mask they try to force you to ware is to cause you to breath your own CO2 , which helps weaken your immune system . And the lock up and fear propaganda helps create Cortzol which helps destroy your organs . At the same time it is teaching you to be more compliant and dumbed down . Why are the people that are well locked up ? I always thought the sick were placed in lock down . Now they want to corona human cold virus test you . The the antiviral meds that kill this Covid and any other virus is not enough they want a universal vaccine . In this vaccine is a sterol drug so humans can not have children . The it will contain DARPA gel or the chip to track and control thought both by I put and read out put thoughts , it will also have the ability to make you sick or kill you using frequencies . I guess they do want the vaccine . The previous Bill Gates computer geek ( not a doctor ) vaccines contained pig urine , Mercury , alumium , formaldehyde , and nalgeese a cancer enzyme . Those who took Gates vaccines were the most variable to this Covid virus . How convenient ! These damn reptilian bastards time is just about over . When the Great sign of Revelation 12 took place over Jerusalem September 23 2017 the time clock started that will soon end the Jew ( not Israel or Judea ) gentile reign of evil on planet earth . March 2021 makes 3 1/2 years since the great sign was shown . Soon lucifer and his fallen ones who will be thrown down to earth to make ready for their judgement . The elect of GOD will be removed and taken to mount Zion where they will be protected from the next 3 1/2 years that will bring death and destruction to the elites running the world and their minions . This is why they are pushing by January they will force by soldiers the vaccine that will alter your DNA and control you . They want hell filled up so they will not be alone . They know from the great sign that took place Sept. 23 2017 , their time is short ! This is why they have grown a larger set of balls ! As the time gets closer they will panic and do things that will help destroy humans from the face of the earth . Such things a the Japan earthquake that hit the nuclear power plant that has set Mankinds death to within 70 years since 2011 , world war 3 with China blaming them for Bill Gates pattented virus , terriost bought and paid for by the elites , weather warfare , frequency weapons , foods poisoned , water systems poisoned . They know their time is short , the end of the gentile reign is almost over ! The descendant of King David is soon to arrive on the scene to start the final count down of the final reign of evil . The end is near ! Soon earth will be set up to enjoy peace and love continually after the evil ones have been removed !!! Their time is short !
Sorry I misquoted Fauchi’s contribution to Wuhan by saying it was 1.3 million , when in fact it was 3.7 million . I had another subject on my mind . I guess this proves I am not a human robot yet ! Hope to never be one either ! Because these will be controlled by their computers . This is the reptilians hopes and dreams . They have stated don’t make these humans mad , because they have God like powers when engaged . Why ? Because remember the Bible in the book of Psalms and even Jesus quoted that GOD’s word states know ye not that ye are gods ( GOD Jr ) . Because we were made in HIS image and HIS likeness . But they have worked so had to keep us dumbed down as to who we really are and what we are capible of . In Isaiah it states these are the people who were terrible from their beginning , feared among those who walk the earth . Seems we have forgotten who we are ! No wonder they push us around like their toys !
We know by now that this is a load of sh!t that they are spewing out to us, but still, nothing gets done about it. Why? What is the real agenda behind it all? What are they going to do if we all decide that we had enough of this bill sh!t take the masks off and open the world? I think that is exactly what we should do. Then we will see what is behind this crap. All you need to do is to go look at what doctors are saying about this.
It is time to lock Bill Gates, Fauci, Tedros and the whole lot up. Look at their history in the world. How many people have they killed up till now? The flue deaths are not even a drop in the bucket compared to what they have done.
If you are willing to open your eyes and look around you then and only then will you start to wake up.
Let me leave a couple of links for you to look at.
1 /opinion-conservative/2020/05/dr-rashid-buttar-what-they-dont-want-you-to-know-about-covid-19-dropping-bombs-must-see-video-3522105.html
2 /eu/2020/05/bill-gates-anthony-fauci-big-pharma-lost-a-massive-supreme-court-case-in-usa-2656861.html
3 /health/2020/05/censored-dr-kaufman-they-want-to-genetically-modify-us-with-covid-19-vaccine-lost-his-job-and-willing-to-go-to-jail-to-resist-video-3023973.html
4 /health/2020/05/vaccine-whistleblower-new-vaccine-causes-sterility-in-97-of-women-must-see-video-3023977.html
5 /health/2020/05/dr-judy-mikovits-interviewed-by-the-health-ranger-on-the-coronavirus-pandemic-fauci-fraud-nih-corruption-more-video-3023956.html
6 /eu/2020/05/u-s-govt-loses-landmark-vaccine-lawsuit-2656870.html
Once you start to look it becomes very clear what is happening around the world. India and Italy are shouting to lock Bill Gates up. Why? Take a look at Africa they want him locked up too.
2019
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness6.
2018
Table 1: Estimated influenza disease burden, by age group — United States, 2017-2018 influenza season
Symptomatic Illnesses Medical Visits Hospitalizations Deaths
Age group Estimate 95% Cr UI Estimate 95% Cr UI Estimate 95% Cr UI Estimate 95% Cr UI
0-4 yrs 3,678,342 (2,563,438 -7,272,693) 2,464,489 (1,695,054 – 4,904,296) 25,644 (17,871 – 50,702) 115 (0 – 367)
5-17 yrs 7,512,601 (5,899,989 – 10,199,144) 3,906,553 (3,002,375 – 5,356,724) 20,599 (16,177 – 27,965) 528 (205 – 1,392)
18-49 yrs 14,428,065 (12,258,820 – 19,396,710) 5,338,384 (4,262,260 -7,333,716) 80,985 (68,809 – 108,874) 2,803 (1,610 – 6,936)
50-64 yrs 13,237,932 (9,400,614 -23,062,957) 5,692,311 (3,895,925 – 10,028,080) 140,385 (99,691 – 244,576) 6,751 (4,244 – 15,863)
65+ yrs 5,945,690 (3,907,025 – 11,786,777) 3,329,586 (2,139,716- 6,623,717) 540,517 (355,184 -1,071,525) 50,903 (35,989 – 83,230)
All ages 44,802,629 (39,322,959 – 57,928,172) 20,731,323 (17,978,392 – 27,248,302) 808,129 (620,768 -1,357,043) 61,099 (46,404 – 94,987)
* Uncertainty interval
Table 2: Estimated rates of influenza-associated disease outcomes, per 100,000, by age group — United States, 2017-2018 influenza season
2017
Table 1: Estimated influenza disease burden, by age group — United States, 2016-2017 influenza season
Symptomatic Illnesses Medical Visits Hospitalizations Deaths
Age group Estimate 95% Cr I Estimate 95% Cr I Estimate 95% Cr I Estimate 95% Cr I
0-4 yrs 2,381,218 (1,390,236, 12,601,859) 1,595,416 (924,357, 8,525,518) 16,601 (9,692, 87,855) 126 (0, 300)
5-17 yrs 6,452,110 (4,260,828, 13,196,404) 3,355,097 (2,191,820, 6,869,053) 17,691 (11,683, 36,183) 125 (0, 418)
18-49 yrs 9,292,804 (6,652,894, 15,421,148) 3,438,338 (2,370,723, 5,813,710) 52,161 (37,343, 86,559) 1,365 (858, 2,020)
50-64 yrs 7,448,184 (5,301,910, 13,098,914) 3,202,719 (2,224,600, 5,618,648) 78,986 (56,225, 138,910) 3,780 (2,880, 4,913)
65+ yrs 3,646,206 (2,367,196, 7,315,271) 2,041,876 (1,297,567, 4,155,698) 331,473 (215,200, 665,025) 32,833 (23,243, 55,297)
All ages 29,220,523 (24,730,258, 44,863,689) 13,633,446 (11,367,031, 22,513,028) 496,912 (383,061, 857,458) 38,230 (28,582, 60,686)
Table 2: Estimated rates of influenza disease outcomes, per 100,000 by age group — United States, 2016-2017 influenza season
Distancing, masks, quarantines, and an entirely new public health administration, will have to know the nature of the biological agents used to kill us before any such prediction can be made. It has been proved already that domestic and UK agents are allied in their attacks on the U.S. and China.
TOTAL utter Bollocks! /new-world-order/2020/05/maybe-now-they-will-listen-judus-goats-are-preparing-for-you-to-be-more-intensely-farmed-and-or-culled-in-accord-with-black-nobility-rothschilds-un-agenda-21-2030-8880.html