The Drive Home Is Twice as Deadly as the Drive to Work, and Saturday at 8 p.m. Is the Riskiest Hour of the Week

Traffic crashes killed 39,254 people on U.S. roads in 2024, in 36,297 fatal crashes. A new analysis of NHTSA data from Postman Law finds that those deaths were far from evenly spread across the day. The four hours from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. accounted for 23% of all fatal crashes, or 8,340 crashes that killed 8,923 people. Looking at a wider window, the six hours from 6 p.m. to midnight make up a quarter of the day but accounted for nearly one in three traffic deaths (12,908). From 5 p.m. to 11 p.m., the share rises to 34% (13,220 deaths). The six hours from midnight to 6 a.m. saw 8,063 deaths, 39% fewer than the 5 p.m. to 11 p.m. window.

The single deadliest hour was 8 p.m. to 9 p.m., with 2,195 fatal crashes and 2,346 deaths. The 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. hours followed closely, each with more than 2,100 fatal crashes and 2,200 deaths. The safest hour was 4 a.m. to 5 a.m., with 950 fatal crashes and 1,029 deaths, less than half the evening peak. The study also compared the same two hours in the morning and evening. From 7 a.m. to 9 a.m., there were 2,102 fatal crashes and 2,274 deaths. From 7 p.m. to 9 p.m., there were 4,244 fatal crashes and 4,538 deaths, almost double. Risk starts climbing in the afternoon. The 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. window averaged 1,985 deaths per hour, 75% higher than the morning commute’s 1,137, while the six midday hours from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. recorded 8,443 deaths in total. The study links the evening danger to fatigue, darker roads, higher speeds, and more alcohol involvement and distraction.

Weekends are the most dangerous days of the week. Saturday was the deadliest day, with 17% of all fatal crashes (6,218). Sunday (5,597) and Friday (5,588) came next. Tuesday was the safest (4,543), so a fatal crash was 37% more likely on a Saturday than on a Tuesday. Friday through Sunday accounted for about 48% of the year’s fatal crashes (17,403). The 33 hours from 6 p.m. Friday to 3 a.m. Sunday are less than 20% of the week but saw nearly 26% of fatal crashes (9,395). Compared with an average weekday evening, Friday nights had 38% more fatal crashes and Saturday nights had 50% more.

Looking at specific hours of the week, Saturday from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. was the single most dangerous, with 420 fatal crashes. It was followed by Saturday at 11 p.m. (414), 9 p.m. (394), and 10 p.m. (390), then Friday at 9 p.m. (386) and Sunday at 2 a.m. (381). Of the 20 deadliest hours of the week, 18 fall between Friday evening and early Sunday morning, and the only weekday evening on the list is Thursday at 7 p.m. Friday risk builds through the evening and peaks at 9 p.m. Saturday has two peaks, one at 8 p.m. and another at 11 p.m. In the hours from midnight to 3 a.m., Monday through Thursday averaged 429 fatal crashes per night. The same hours early Saturday and early Sunday saw 994 and 1,080. The safest times of the week were Tuesday and Wednesday at 3 a.m., with 86 fatal crashes each, about a fifth of the Saturday peak.

The deadliest hour also moves with the seasons. A National Safety Council analysis of NHTSA data found that in spring and summer, when days are long, fatal crashes peak between 8 p.m. and midnight. From November through February, the peak moves about four hours earlier, to 4 p.m. to 8 p.m., when early darkness overlaps with the drive home. Crashes that cause injuries but no deaths follow a different pattern. According to the NSC, they happen most often on weekdays, peak on Fridays, and are most common from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. In other words, the daily commute brings the most injury crashes, while late weekend nights bring the most fatal ones.

October was the deadliest month of 2024, with 9.2% of the year’s deaths (3,620), just ahead of August (3,611) and September (3,528). February had the fewest (2,710). Adjusting for the length of each month, October averaged 116.8 deaths per day and February 93.4, making an October day about 25% deadlier. Summer averaged 113.5 deaths a day and winter 94.5. The study points to October’s sudden loss of daylight before clocks change, harvest and hunting season travel, school traffic, and Halloween foot traffic. Every age group saw more deaths in October, with increases ranging from 3% among 16- to 20-year-olds to 17% among 55- to 64-year-olds. The study concludes that crash risk depends on the hour, the day, and the season together, and that safety campaigns and enforcement will be most effective if they focus on the specific windows when deaths spike.