Peak Oil May Not Hit for 20-30 Years

According to a recent study, Peak Oil, may not be as impending as previously thought, says the Wall Street Journal:

 Global oil capacity will grow over the next 20 years but after that supply may not meet demand, according to a study released Tuesday by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Capacity could grow as much as 115 million barrels a day, or 25% over current levels, according to study of more than 100,000 projects worldwide.

The New York TImes says:

In recent years, ominous warnings about peaking production have gained some prominence among traders and some analysts. They helped explain why oil prices soared last year on fears that oil supplies would fail to catch up with the projected growth in consumption.

A retired geologist predicted, wrongly it turned out, that global oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, 2005. Others believe that the peak in production will happen from 2011 to 2015.

CERA thinks that oil may be still readily available for another 20 years, says Business Insider:

Supply evolution through 2030 is not a question of resource availability.

IHS CERA projects growth of productive capacity through 2030, with no peak evident.

There is no unique picture of the course of future of supply: we are dealing with a complex, multicomponent system.

Aboveground drivers—economics, costs, service sector capability, geopolitics, the timing and nature of government decision making, and, centrally of course, investment—are crucial to future supply availability.

Market dynamics will remain highly volatile.

The upstream oil industry faces major challenges in finding new oil and turning discoveries into commercial production.

The International Energy Agency tells a different story, says BNET:

So, Jackson notes: let’s not get all emotional about it. What we need is objectivity, he says. Of course,  that’s what the guys on theother side of the peak oil debate also argue.

The CERA report takes a lighter, rose-colored-glasses view of the global oil and gas supply, in a time where more scrutiny and concern has centered on the subject of peak oil.

The International Energy Agency takes a darker view, which is interesting considering upon the release of its rather bleak 2009 World Energy Outlook it also was criticized for being overly optimistic in the past.

The IEA said in its annual report the world’s energy resources are adequate to meeted projected demand increase through to 2030. But it stresses that sustained investment is need to combat the decline in output at existing fields, which will drop by almost two-thirds by 2030.