Weekly Commentary: Talking Heads Notwithstanding Israel Continues Attacks in Syria

Weekly Commentary: Talking Heads Notwithstanding Israel Continues Attacks in
Syria
Dr. Aaron Lerner 17 October 2021

“if the Russians actually transfer these (S-300 anti-aircraft) missiles to
Syria… our Air Force can deal with them. This wouldn’t be good publicity
for a product that is their export product. ”
Former Defense Minister Moshe Arens Israel Radio Interview 30 May 2013
http://youtu.be/b7csLrUYd48

Moshe Arens was right about the S-300 as well as even more sophisticated
Russian systems.

And while this reality did not stop the Russians from turning Syria into a
live action showcase for Russian military hardware for many years, it most
certainly influenced their policies and narrative vis-a-vis the use of high
end Russian platforms against Israeli attacks in Syria. Our attacks are
effectively taken as a given by Russia.

Time and again talking heads proclaimed the end of Israeli attacks against
Iranian and other important targets in Syria in deference to Russian
pressure.

But the attacks continued under Netanyahu and they continue today under
Bennett, with, “according to foreign sources”, Israel carrying out major
attacks right before Bennett met President Putin last week.

Lebanon has been another story. Rhetoric aside, PM Netanyahu followed a
consistent policy that, between wars, Lebanon was essentially off limits to
Israeli attacks against Hezbollah’s arms build up so that today we face
hundreds of thousands of rockets – including what appears to be an
intentionally understated number of rockets upgraded with guidance kits. I
write “intentionally understated” because the same numerical estimates of
upgraded rockets have been provided for years despite the fact that an
upgrade kit is small enough to fit in a suitcase and assembly does not
require considerable resources in terms of either space, equipment or skill
set.

So while I am encouraged by Israeli operations in Syria I remain concerned
if we are truly prepared for a clash which includes Hezbollah’s efforts to
launch those rockets and missiles before we take them out.

On the one hand, we have probably the most advanced capabilities in the
world for coordinating and directing our forces on the day we find ourselves
addressing this challenge. On the other hand we still have some decision
makers and brass who remain convinced that Hezbollah is deterred rather than
patient.
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IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

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