How Long Will Labrador Hold The First District ?
Whether Democrats could come back to retake the 1st District Congressional seat has been a topic on Facebook in recent days.
Barring a catastrophic failure on Labrador’s part, it’s simply not going to happen. There are three big reasons for this.
1) The Republican Composition of the District: It’s easy to forget after the last three House, races but Idaho’s 1st Congressional District is extremely Republican. It’s ranked a +17 Republican on the Cook Partisan Political Index. Republicans might as well making winning back Hawaii’s 1st District a priority in the next election.
2) Who do the Democrats have that is capable of mounting a credible challenge to Raul Labrador or anyone else for that matter? The answer is no one. Even in the Democratic boom years of 2006 and 2008, the Democrats had to dust off retreads for most statewide races. Candidates like Jerry Brady, Larry LaRocco, and even Minnick were brought back from the political grave for campaigns as the Democrats had no credible statewide candidates in their midsts. They still don’t. The Democrats have got no bench. They’ll find somebody to run, but it’ll most likely be token opposition.
3) The media is going to be much different. While the left wing media might not love Labrador, they don’t hate him as they did Congressman Sali. The Democrats simply can’t count on the media to hammer Labrador relentlessly. Partly, this is because the media presumes that Labrador has a pretty good shot of winning re-election and would like to have open lines of communication and some cooperation in their coverage.
For these reasons, I think Raul Labrador will probably represent Idaho’s 1st District as long as he wants to barring an unforeseen circumstance. Of course, how long he’ll want to is an open question. It remains possible that Senator Jim Risch (R-ID) could run for Governor in 2014 which would open up his Senate seat. And if Labrador decided to run for the Senate, Idaho’s 1st District would get to do another open house race.
Fun times.
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