Nine Reasons Why Romney Will Win the Election by At Least Four Percent — Despite His Inept Campaign

Mitt Romney is running an utterly inept campaign.  His ads are just dreadful. And he really has no message the voters can discern. The Romney campaign so far has been pathetic — worse than McCain’s in 2008.

In the Real Clear Politics list of polls, every poll now has Mitt Romney running behind.

Ignore all this.   Mitt Romney will win this election.  And it won’t be that close.

Here are nine reasons reasons why.

REASON #1: Just 42 percent say they are “certain” to vote for Obama.

This is in the most recent tracking poll by Scott Rasmussen, which shows Obama leading Romney by 2 among “likely voters.”

The lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s supporters will get swamped by the rabid enthusiasm of the anti-Obama vote.

REASON #2: Scott Walker’s 7 point margin of victory in June in heavily Blue Wisconsin.

The polls in the Real Clear Politics average of polls understated Scott Walker’s strength in the Wisconsin recall election in June by a bit more than four percent.

If there is a similar four-point polling error now (which is likely), Romney is now running tied with or slightly ahead of Obama.

But the GOP voter base is far more energized to defeat Obama than it was to defeat Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in the Wisconsin recall election in June.  The energy in Wisconsin was on the Democrat side — aimed at defeating Walker.

The Dems and the Big Labor Unions spent about $40 MILLION to defeat Walker in a heavily blue state, but lost.

We’re likely to see that the polls now are greatly underestimating the seething anger out there bubbling under the surface over what Obama is doing to America.

Reason # 3: Obama’s job approval numbers are exactly what they were in early October of 2010 – just prior to the sweeping GOP election victories in the 2010 mid-term elections.

On October 4, 20120, Obama’s job approval rating stood at 48 percent, with 51 percent disapproving his job performance — identical to Obama’s job approval numbers now.

The 2010 mid-term elections four weeks later produced the biggest landslide in favor of the GOP in a century.

We’re likely to see something very similar in November 6th.

The polls were overstating Obama’s strength then, and are now.

Furthermore, Team Romney, if they have any competence at all, should be able to bring Obama’s job approval rating down to 45 or 43 percent with some decent ads cataloguing Obama’s disastrous record and pathological lying.

But even if Team Romney is incapable of creating any decent ads, there will come a point when even low-information undecided voters will begin to take stock of their own personal situation.

Look for Obama’s job approval numbers to start dropping precipitously over the next few weeks as the electorate (especially those less-engaged undecided voters) start to focus on what Obama has done to America.

REASON #4: The undecided vote tends to break 80 percent against the incumbent in the final week before Election Day.

If Scott Rasmussen’s poll is correct that just 42 percent of likely voters are “certain” to vote for Obama (while 43 percent of likely voters are “certain” to vote for Romney) this leaves 15 percent of likely voters who are persuadable — in other words, not sold on Obama.

Many of these soft Obama “leaners” won’t vote.

Obama’s given his soft “leaners” no reason to make the effort to vote.

REASON #5: Throw out the media polls.

The Gallup poll that shows Obama up by six is of registered voters, not likely voters. So this poll is useless as any kind of gauge on what’s likely to happen in the election.

For the media polls to be right (that purport to be of “likely voters”), we would need to see Democrats turn out equal of greater than what we saw in the 2008 election.

In 2008, the Democrats had a +7 percent turnout advantage over the GOP.

If that happens, Obama will win. But that won’t happen.

In 2004, the two parties were dead even on turnout. That’s where it’s likely to be this year — at best for Democrats.

But the media polls are assuming an 8-9 percent turnout advantage for Democrats. The actual turnout on Election Day will be about equal between Republicans and Democrats. Every survey (including the skewed media surveys) shows Romney leading Obama among Independents.

Here’s what the media polls look like if you unskew the results by assuming an even turnout among Republicans and Democrats >>>

Rasmussen currently has the electorate favoring the GOP by about 2 percent.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls also shows a slight edge for the GOP on the generic ballot.

So with a deflated Democrat voter base and a super-charged GOP voter base, projecting and even turnout between Democrats and Republicans is being generous to the Democrats.

But the media projects an +8 to +9 turnout advantage in favor of the Dems — greater than the +7 percent Dem turnout advantage in 2008.

You decide if that sounds plausible.

It’s virtually impossible for either candidate to win without carrying the Independent vote.

So, to know where the election really stands, track what all these polls are saying about what the Independents are thinking.  Romney’s holding an average 10 percent advantage among Independents even in the skewed media-sponsored polls.

There are other indicators that the media-sponsored polls are wrong.

Both Romney and Obama are spending a lot of time and money campaigning hard in Pennsylvania. But this should be a blowout state for Obama if the media polling is right.

Polls show Romney up by 11 percent in Indiana — a state Obama won.  Other polls show it much tighter than expected in states like New Mexico and Nevada, which have heavy Hispanic populations (who presumably heavily favor Obama).

Arizona, once thought to be a tight battleground state (also with a heavy Hispanic population), is looking like a blowout for Romney, with Romney now at +10 over Obama.

All these are indicators that the national media-sponsored polls are way off — vastly overestimating Obama’s strength.

By the way, I’m not as convinced that Hispanics will vote as overwhelmingly for Obama as the polls now suggest.

The Hispanic cable channel Univision has produced an explosive documentary on the real story behind Obama’s “Fast & Furious” gun-running scandal that has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of innocent Mexicans that isn’t sitting well with Mexico or with many Hispanic Americans.

And most Hispanics are not in sync with Obama’s extremely liberal social issue positions – i.e. gay marriage, gays in the military, taxpayer-funded-abortion-on-demand, Obama’s assault on the Catholic Church, etc.

So look for Romney to perform significantly better among Hispanics when all the votes are cast than polls are showing right now.

REASON #6: Obama’s dismal economic record

• Barack Obama has added $6 TRILLION to the national debt. What has all this deficit spending bought us? Zero net-new jobs.
• The economy is now growing at an anemic 1.3% annual rate. The economic growth rate has dropped each of the last three quarters. The economy is now teetering on the brink of another recession.
• The real unemployment rate is 11.2 percent if you use the size of the labor force as it stood on Obama’s first day as President.
• If the labor participation rate was sitting at the 30 year average of 65.8 percent, the unemployment rate now would actually be 11.7 percent.
• Since the Obama Administration declared the end of the recession in June of 2009, 58 percent of the jobs created have been low income jobs. (Source: National Employment Law Center)
• The percentage of working age Americans with a job has been below 59 percent for 35 months in a row.
• Since Obama became president, the number of Americans living in poverty has risen by 6.4 million.
• The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline cost $1.86 on average in America on Obama’s first days as President. Right now, that same gallon of gas costs $3.75 on average.
• The number of Americans on food stamps has grown from 31.9 million when Barack Obama entered the White House to 46.7 million today.
• Since January of 2009, the median household has lost $4,019 in income per year. Median household income has fallen every year of the Obama Administration.
• America now ranks #18 in the world on the Wold Index of Economic Freedom. Countries that are the most free economically are the world’s most prosperous countries. The U.S. now ranks behind most the industrialized world in terms of economic freedom. We have thus relinquished the big advantage America had over the rest of the world that made the United States the most prosperous nation in human history.
• Under Obama, America has fallen from the #1 ranked country for economic competitiveness to #7, according to the World Economic Forum. This is why our standard of living is falling like a lead balloon.

All Team Romney has to do is catalogue these facts.

The fact that Romney has not done so yet is mystifying.

James Carville helped focus Bill Clinton’s winning 1992 campaign against George H. W. Bush by telling Clinton: “It’s the economy, stupid!”

Carville was trying to get an undisciplined candidate to focus on the most important issue to voters.

It’s still “The economy, stupid” — only more so.

The economy is a whole lot worse today than it was in 1992.

Actually, the economy then was wonderful compared to now.

REASON #7: ObamaCare is as unpopular is ever.

Polls tracking support vs opposition to ObamaCare have remained consistent over the last two-and-a-half years — 53 percent favoring repeal, 42 percent opposing repeal.

If anything, opposition to ObamaCare has hardened since the law’s passage. Though it sure would help if Romney would sometimes talk about the coming catatsrophe that is ObamaCare.

For some reason, Romney inexplicably is ignoring the topic.

We now learn that ObamaCare . . .

• contains 21 new taxes and tax increases that will cost the average American family $4,791 in additional taxes and penalties per year.
• requires the hiring of 16,000 new IRS agents to enforce ObamaCare.
• is now in the process of building 159 brand new government agencies to administer ObamaCare.

REASON #8: Obama’s foreign policy record is starting to look even worse than Jimmy Carter’s.

The Middle East is now on fire.

The U.S. Ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, and three others were brutally murdered by al Qaeda. Ambassador Stevens was sodomized repeatedly and brutally tortured before he was savagely executed and dragged through the streets.

For some reason, the U.S. Embassy in Libya had absolutely no security — zero.

Now even the mainstream media is having a tough time completely ignoring Obama’s lies about the al Qaeda attack on the U.S. Embassy.

We now learn that the Obama White House knew from the beginning that the attack on the U.S. Embassy on September 11th was executed by al Qaeda, had been planned long in advance, and had nothing to do with that silly anti-Islam YouTube video.

But the Obama Administration continued to insist that the attack was provoked by the video anyway — and continues to blame the video, even now.

Why?

Because the Obama White House wants to divert attention from the complete failure that is Obama’s Middle East policy.

Total incompetence plus pathological lying exposed for all to see is a toxic political mix for any President.

Obama calls the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Libya and execution of Ambassador Chris Stevens as a  ”bump in the road.”

Bump in the road to what?

You can just imagine what Chris Stevens’ family thinks of that assessment.

As if that’s not enough . . .

Egypt, once a strong U.S. ally, is now under the control of the rabidly anti-American Muslim Brotherhood — thanks to Obama’s decision to back the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak.

Obama is doing absolutely nothing about Iran’s march toward getting a nuclear bomb.

Meanwhile, Obama has gone out of his way to alienate America’s two closest allies — Great Britain and Israel.

Reason #9: Romney will perform well enough in the debates.

Romney showed himself to be an able debater during the primaries.  He destroyed Newt in the debate just before the Florida GOP primary.

He also destroyed the Rick Perry, ending Perry’s hapless campaign.

So look for Romney to show well in the debates.

He doesn’t even have to win the debate.  Obama, no doubt, will perform well also. Romney just needs to show he’s capable.

Ronald Reagan in 1980 pulled away from Jimmy Carter after the debate because Reagan showed he wasn’t the Mad Bomber Carter was trying to portray Reagan as.  Reagan showed in his debate with Carter he was capable of leading the country.

He did not have to win the debate. Carter’s record was so bad, all Reagan had to do was show he wasn’t some kind of extremist and that he belonged on the stage with Carter.

And that’s about all Romney has to do . . . because Obama’s record is such an obvious disaster on every front.

Once Romney succeeds at that (not throwing up on himself, and looking presentable) all of Obama’s attack ads will fall flat because Obama’s ads will not resemble the Romney voters saw in the debates.

Remember, only 42 percent say they are “certain” to vote for Obama.  So that’s 58 percent who, frankly, would prefer someone else, if that someone else looks plausible.

Romney’s mission for the debates: Look plausible.

He will.

Presidential races rarely turn on debate performance anyway.  This race will be won by Romney and lost by Obama based on the underlying fundamentals.

How is America doing under Obama’s stewardship?

ANSWER: Dismally.

The Bottom Line . . .

Obama’s economic and foreign policy records are both complete disasters.

Other than allowing Navy SEALs Team Six to kill Osama bin Laden after Obama dithered for two months (some reports say 16 months) over whether to give the green light to the SEALs, nothing Obama has done has worked. Nothing. Zip, zero, nada.

Even this so-called economic recovery (if you can call it that) started in June of 2009, before a single Obama policy had kicked in.

So really, this was the Bush recovery (such as it was).

But the economic recovery stopped dead in its tracks in April of 2010, two weeks after Obama signed ObamaCare into law on March 24, 2010.

Businesses stopped investing and expanding because they have no idea how much ObamaCare is going to cost.  The more businesses find out what’s in ObamaCare, the more nervous business gets.

Now it looks like we are headed into another recession — this one quite likely a whole lot worse than the Recession of 2008.

The federal government is now borrowing 44 cents out of every dollar it spends.

What will this current $16 TRILLION national debt turn into if we have another recession?

$30 TRILLION?

At that point, the entire economic system implodes.  We become far worse than Greece.

Nothing much happens when Greece implodes because the Greek economy is so small.

Other countries can bail Greece out.

But when the U.S. debt situation becomes proportionally like Greece, the world economy collapses. The rest of the world is not big enough to bail us out.

When the U.S. catches a cold, the rest of the world catches pneumonia.

But when the U.S. catches pnueumnia (or worse), a worldwide economic implosion ensues.

Then we become like what we saw in Cormac McCarthy’s great book (and movie) — THE ROAD.

This is the picture  of the future under Obama that Team Romney needs to present to voters.

The question Team Romney should ask voters is not so much “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”

The real question is: Think things are bad now?  How much worse off will you be in 2016, after another four years of Obama?

How much worse off will you be when the national debt jumps from $16 TRILLION to $20 TRILLION (what Obama says the debt will be if he gets another four years) . . .  or a more realistic $30 TRILLION?

How can America even survive this level of debt?

There comes a point when the entire federal budget can pay for nothing more than the interest on the debt — no defense, no roads, no law enforcement, no safety net programs, nothing but interest on the debt.

How much worse off will you be when the 21 tax increases in ObamaCare kick in next year?

How much worse off will you be when Taxmageddon kicks in on January 1, 2013?

What will all these tax increases, deficit spending, and mounting multi-trillion-dollar debt do to the U.S. and world economy?

What will all this do to you personally?

It would be nice if Team Romney would start connecting these dots. for voters.

If  Team Romney had any brains at all, it would use video clips like this to show the dramatic difference between the direction he wants to take the country and where Obama wants to take the country:

If Romney used this clip in ads, he’d win by 15 points, not four.

What a great illustration of Obama’s America.

Here’s another one Team Romney could use:

Even most people on Welfare don’t want America to collapse into this sinkhole.

More of this, and we’re a banana republic.

Might as well move to Mexico or some Third World country where it’s cheap to live.

Or perhaps just learn to live off the land.

Once undecided voters really start to focus the bleak future that awaits all of us if we have another four years of Obama, you’ll see the undecideds break heavily against Obama.  But that’s not likely to happen until the final week.

The end result will be Romney winning by at least 4 percent, almost no matter what he does.  And he will carry all the major battleground states.

But Romney could win by 15 if he just copies what Reagan did in 1980 against Jimmy Carter — and that’s go on offense, go ideological, and go big.

That is, if he just explains Constitutional Conservatism to the country. . . and how the future under Constitutional Conservatism is bright and prosperous (as it has been in the past), while the future under Obama’s bureaucratic socialist central-planning scheme is bleak (like Europe, or worse).

No need to reinvent the wheel. Just copy Reagan.  Shuffle Reagan’s words around a bit so you are not accused of plagiarism. Reagan showed us the roadmap for sweeping, overwhelming, crushing victory . . . TWICE.

And he had no conservative talk radio, no FOX News, no conservative blogasphere, no conservative media to help him.

Reagan was able to do it on his own.  He did it with his message.

If Romney starts making his campaign about big themes ala Reagan . . . or like Thomas Jefferson when he wrote our Declaration of Independence, Romney will win big — by 15 points or more.

You inspire people with big ideas and big themes.

As Proverbs says: “Where there is no vision, the people perish.” (Proverbs 29:18)

By the way, you should re-read the Declaration of Independence.

That was one of the greatest negative ads of all time — a long catalogue of abuses and assaults on liberty by King George III and the British government.  That’s what an effective political document reads and sounds like.

And that’s what Romney needs to launch against Obama — a 21st Century edition of a Declaration of Independence for the American people — featuring a long catalogue of abuses, lawlessness, and pathological lying by the Obama regime.

That’s how Romney turns a four point victory into a 15 point victory.

If Romney continues to play “small ball” (what he’s doing now — complaining about China cheating, talking about his standing in polls, and the like), he’ll win by four points — about what Clint Eastwood’s empty chair would win by.

Actually, an empty chair would win by more than four.

The question is not whether Romney will win. He will. The question is his margin of his victory.

That will depend on what Romney does in these final five weeks.