US Waives Iran Oil Sanctions for Two Months in Payday Worth up to $10 Billion

Madness.

US waives Iran oil sanctions for two months in payday worth up to $10 billion

By Steven Nelson and Josh Christenson, NY Post, June 22, 2026:

Vance: US willing to ‘fundamentally transform’ Iran relationship

WASHINGTON — The US government on Monday formally waived oil sanctions on Iran for two months — allowing for up to $10 billion in revenue as nuclear talks continued with Iranian officials in Switzerland.

The Treasury Department waiver lasts through Aug. 21, giving Iran the ability to openly sell its oil for the first time since the 1990s, meaning it will pocket new profits by charging market rate.

The waiver follows President Trump last week lifting the two-month US naval blockade of Iranian ports as part of a memorandum of understanding.

Large commercial vessel “AROSA MAJURO” docked in the Gulf of Oman with men watching from shore.
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Commercial vessels seen in the Strait of Hormuz on June 17, 2026.
Anadolu via Getty Images
It could allow Iran to take in an estimated $60 billion annually — or $10 billion for the two-month window — without having to be paid under the table.

Tehran has long sold its oil, mostly to China, in violation of US sanctions and can now eliminate discounts of about $8-10 per barrel, according to market analysis cited in US government reports.

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Assuming an additional $10 per barrel, these new market-rate transactions could translate into roughly $14 million in additional daily profits — or about $840 million over the 60-day window.

The figure isn’t precise because it depends on oil prices, which are plunging as the Strait of Hormuz reopens pursuant to the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed last week.

The higher range also assumes that Iran’s oil infrastructure centered on Kharg Island is fully operational.

Oil pipelines at the Kharg Island Oil Terminal in the Persian Gulf.
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A view of the Port of Kharg Island Oil on March 12, 2017.
Getty Images
Clay Seigle, a non-resident scholar with the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program, pegged the figure closer to $8 billion for Iran over the 60-day negotiating period based on current market conditions.

“Before the war, Iran was under pretty strict sanctions that scared away all their traditional customers… except for China, which was not afraid to defy the United States,” Seigle said.

Tehran produced roughly 3 million barrels of oil per day and exported 1.6 million of those, he noted.

Now, with China not the only buyer, Iran will benefit from being able to sell its oil and “transact in US dollars,” he added. “It could even be delivered to the United States.”

“There’s a possibility for Iran during the next few months to ramp up higher than the 1.6 [million barrel] exports,” Seigle said. “They probably could get closer to 2 million barrels per day.”

“This is the price for getting the exports resumed from the Gulf post-war,” Siegle underscored. “Helping Iran discover it can put this chokehold on the world’s economy whenever it wants.”

Despite that, some Gulf nations such as UAE and Saudi Arabia have been able to divert millions of barrels through pipelines to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, amounting to roughly 4 million barrels in exports per day.

The US has also tapped strategic reserves.

But both are “a bridge for the main problem, which is Hormuz,” he said.

An oil industry source added that the “limited duration” of the waivers “is unlikely to support a meaningful increase in Iranian production,” with “near-term exports” instead relying on already stored barrels or cargo on tankers.

“A temporary waiver expands the pool of potential buyers, with India and other Asian importers among the most likely customers,” the source noted.

“Iran also has an estimated 120 million barrels of crude oil already loaded onto tankers — roughly 40 million barrels still in the Persian Gulf and another 80 million barrels already en route to Asia — which could support a relatively quick rebound in exports,” the source said.