Budgetary effects of giving every adult American citizen $5,000
Not to take blather too seriously, but …
Suppose that, in early 2027, Congress passed a law saying that each adult American citizen should get a $5,000 check. (Although, I don’t mean to presume here that the Trump Administration believes that any such legislative authorization is necessary, as opposed to presidential decree). Given that there are about 270 million adult American citizens, this would cost about $1.35 trillion.
That is more than 4 percent of projected GDP. For 2026 the projected federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion. If 2027 is otherwise similar, this would raise it to 3.25 trillion, or more than 10% of projected GDP. The final amount would then be added to outstanding federal public debt that already exceeds $40 trillion.
I suppose that one might plausibly expect a contractionary response from the Fed, given current inflationary concerns. A further question of interest is how the bond markets would respond (I have a guess).
Source: http://danshaviro.blogspot.com/2026/09/budgetary-effects-of-giving-every-adult.html
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