Can More Provinces Deliver Better Governance in Pakistan

Pakistan’s rapid population growth has transformed the country’s social, economic and administrative landscape, creating new challenges for a governance structure established under very different demographic circumstances. From approximately 65 million people in 1972 to 241.5 million recorded in the 2023 Census, the country’s population has expanded dramatically, placing unprecedented demands on public services, infrastructure and government institutions. As Pakistan plans for the coming decades, it must consider whether its existing provincial arrangements can deliver effective, equitable and accountable governance to a population that may approach 370–390 million by 2050.

The debate over creating additional provinces is therefore not simply about redrawing administrative boundaries. It concerns the distribution of political authority, the accessibility of public services, regional economic disparities and the capacity of government institutions to respond to citizens’ needs. Pakistan requires a serious discussion about administrative reform that considers both the potential benefits of smaller provinces and the immediate importance of strengthening local governments.

Population Growth and the Limits of Existing Governance

Pakistan’s four provincial governments administer populations and territories that have grown considerably since the country’s administrative structure took its modern shape. The scale of this transformation is particularly evident in Punjab, whose population reached approximately 127.7 million in the 2023 Census. This figure exceeds the population of the entire country in 1972, illustrating the extraordinary pressure placed on provincial institutions over five decades.

Managing such a large population through a single provincial administration presents significant challenges. Lahore and other major urban centres have different requirements from agricultural districts, industrial areas and relatively underdeveloped southern regions. Urban expansion requires transport networks, housing and municipal infrastructure, while rural communities may prioritise irrigation, agricultural support, healthcare and access to education.

A centralised provincial system can struggle to allocate attention and resources fairly across such diverse areas. Administrative distance, competing political priorities and limited institutional capacity can further complicate service delivery. Although population size alone does not determine governance performance, it strengthens the case for examining whether existing institutions are sufficiently responsive to local conditions.

Regional Inequality Demands a Targeted Response

Regional disparities remain a major obstacle to balanced development in Pakistan. Within Punjab, differences between South Punjab and the northern and central regions are reflected in access to education, healthcare, employment opportunities and economic infrastructure. Similar concerns about uneven development exist in other provinces, where remote districts and less developed areas frequently face barriers to public investment and essential services.

Creating smaller provinces could provide a mechanism for bringing decision-making closer to underserved communities. Regional governments with clearly defined responsibilities might be better positioned to identify local priorities, develop targeted economic policies and monitor the delivery of public services.

However, new provincial boundaries would not automatically eliminate inequality. Smaller provinces could still experience political concentration, weak institutions, inefficient spending and disparities between their own districts. Administrative reform must therefore be accompanied by transparent budgeting, merit-based appointments, independent oversight and measurable development targets.

The central question should be whether reform improves living standards and reduces regional disparities, rather than whether it simply creates additional political offices.

Administrative Divisions as a Starting Point

Pakistan’s existing administrative divisions could provide a useful starting point for examining possible provincial restructuring. Established district networks, regional headquarters and public-sector institutions may help policymakers assess where administrative responsibilities could be reorganised with comparatively limited disruption.

Nevertheless, existing divisions should not automatically become new provinces. Any proposal must consider population distribution, geographical connectivity, economic viability, access to natural resources, infrastructure requirements and the preferences of affected communities. Policymakers must also examine how revenues, public debt, government employees, assets and liabilities would be distributed.

Economic sustainability is particularly important. Every new province would require administrative departments, legislative institutions and other essential functions. Without adequate revenue and a realistic expenditure framework, restructuring could create additional fiscal pressures instead of improving governance.

A phased approach, supported by independent feasibility studies and public consultation, would help determine which proposals are practical and which could produce unintended consequences.

Local Government Must Remain Central to Reform

Even if Pakistan eventually creates additional provinces, stronger local government will remain essential. Citizens generally experience government through everyday services such as water supply, sanitation, waste management, local roads and municipal planning. These responsibilities cannot be managed effectively if decision-making and financial authority remain concentrated at higher levels.

Article 140-A of the Constitution provides for elected local governments and the devolution of political, administrative and financial responsibility to them. Implementing this principle consistently could improve accountability and enable communities to influence decisions affecting their daily lives.

Provincial governments should establish clear rules for local government financing, ensure regular elections and provide elected councils with meaningful administrative authority. Funding allocations should follow transparent formulas that account for population, poverty, infrastructure gaps and service-delivery requirements.

Strengthening local institutions could also offer a practical way to improve governance while the more complex debate over provincial restructuring continues. Devolution should not be treated as an alternative to every other reform, but as a necessary foundation for effective public administration.

Constitutional Consensus and the Cost of Transition

Creating a new province in Pakistan requires substantial constitutional agreement. Article 239 stipulates that a constitutional amendment affecting a province’s limits must receive a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament and approval by a two-thirds majority of the affected provincial assembly. These requirements make consultation, negotiation and broad political consensus indispensable.

Such safeguards also underline the importance of approaching provincial restructuring as a national governance question rather than a short-term partisan project. Political parties, provincial representatives, civil society, economists and local communities should participate in evaluating proposals.

The financial and administrative transition must receive equal attention. Governments need to estimate the costs of new assemblies, departments, courts, buildings and staffing while ensuring that education, healthcare and other public services continue without interruption. Independent assessments should establish realistic timelines, funding arrangements and mechanisms for evaluating results.

Reform Should Be Measured by Public Benefit

Pakistan cannot afford to ignore the governance pressures created by population growth and uneven development. Whether the country ultimately establishes additional provinces, strengthens existing administrative arrangements or prioritises local government, reform should be guided by practical outcomes.

The objective must be to reduce regional inequality, improve public services, expand economic opportunities and make government more accountable to citizens. New provincial structures could help achieve these goals if they are economically viable, constitutionally legitimate and supported by effective institutions. Without these conditions, boundary changes risk becoming expensive exercises in administrative expansion.

As Pakistan moves towards a potentially much larger population by 2050, delaying governance reform will only increase the challenge. The country needs evidence-based planning, political consensus and a commitment to devolving authority where it can produce the greatest public benefit. Ultimately, the success of administrative reform will not be measured by how many provinces Pakistan creates, but by whether citizens receive better services, fairer opportunities and a stronger voice in the decisions that shape their lives.