Tornadoes Likely Sunday In Eastern Oklahoma And All Of Arkansas

For those of you who have lived in the Oklahoma and Arkansas area for any length of time, this will come as no shock. It’s almost May and the threat of severe weather grows with every day. We’ve already had several storms pop up out of nowhere. There wasn’t even a chance of rain yesterday morning, but a small thunderstorm popped up just after dawn, passing just to the north of Roland. That’s how these storms do. Around here, the only thing predictable about the weather is its unpredictability. If anyone can predict what the weather will do, it will be the forecasters that work in this area. They’ve had a bit of experience with the volatility. Maybe practice really does make perfect.

For several days, the National Weather Service has warned that Sunday could be a very bad weather day for Eastern Oklahoma and all of Arkansas. I don’t understand all the jargon and technical terms the forecasters use in their forecast discussions (yes, I really do read them on the NWS website), but it is useful to get a feel for what they are thinking as they look at the technical data they have access to. Suffice it to say, they are not exactly jumping for joy with the prospects they see for today.

One of the main weather men in this area is Garrett Lewis. He is the Chief Meteorologist for KFSM and his work is used by several media outlets in the area. He is from this area, growing up in Alma, AR, and has been a weather fanatic from his youth. He has the training and experience to be trusted and he is concerned about the possibility of very severe thunderstorms and what he calls long-track tornadoes.

Garrett’s Blog – High-end severe weather event for all of the 5NEWS viewing area as well as the majority of Arkansas for Sunday afternoon and evening.

Large hail-bigger than golf ball; and possibly up to baseball size is possible. Winds within thunderstorms could gust up to 90mph and any tornadoes will not be brief spin-ups; but, instead long-track tornadoes capable of EF2 or larger damage.

This is the highest severe weather risk we’ve seen in the last 2 years.

Early on Sunday we may see a few thunderstorms develop in the morning around 8am. These storms could be severe and contain winds up to 70mph and golfball size hail but the larger risk will hold off until Sunday night.

Sometime around 3pm, a surface dryline will mix into eastern Oklahoma with an extremely unstable airmass in place (think of a beach ball at the bottom of a swimming pool).

Because of the extreme buoyancy, storms will quickly become severe with large hail likely. As the updrafts of the storm mature, rotation is likely with a few strong to violent tornadoes possible as early as 4pm and lasting through 9pm.

That’s the thing I like about Garrett Lewis. He has the ability to lay out the weather forecast in simple terms. Instead of wondering what he said, we can understand what is likely to happen and do our best to be ready.

Only God knows what will be happening later today, as these storms begin to develop and spread across the area. It’s good to be prepared for an emergency, but if the stories I have read are true, it’s hard to prepare for a tornado that is on the scale of what may happen today. All you can do is hunker down and pray and sometimes, even that’s not enough.

Be safe, my friends. It could get rough around here in a few hours.