The Horserace – November 5, 2016

National Polls

McClatchy/Marist – Hillary +2 (2-way), Hillary +1 (4-way)

State Polls

Indiana – Gravis – Trump +10 (3-way)
Indiana – WTHR – Trump +11 (3-way)

New Jersey – Stockton College – Hillary +11 (4-way)

Reading The Tea Leaves

E tu, McClatchy?

The McClatchy/Marist poll has been a thorn in Trump’s side for months now. In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the McClatchy/Marist poll came out and had Hillary +15 in the 2-way race and Hillary +14 in the 4-way race. In the aftermath of Hillary’s stumble in early September, the McClatchy/Marist poll had Hillary +7 in the 2-way race and Hillary +6 in the 4-way race.

If you closely watch the polls like I do, you know this poll had been THE wet blanket (the other one is the AP/Gfk poll) on Trump’s performance in the RCP average. It created the impression of a Hillary landslide after Khizr Khan. Then it saved the day again in September with a similar outlier when Trump was poised to overtake Hillary in the RCP average after she fell on her face on national television.

So anyway, I expected this outlier poll to come in again with something like Hillary +6 on the eve of the election. The fact that it is Hillary +1 in the 4-way race is significant. This is the equivalent of the LA Times poll having Hillary +6.