Live Thread: Fifth 2020 Democratic Debate
We will be watching the Fifth 2020 Democratic Debate tonight on MSNBC. This debate is set to be all about Butt-mentum. Mayor Pete has recently surged ahead of Warren in Iowa and New Hampshire with upper middle class wine track voters.
Let’s dork out for a minute because this is more interesting. Mayor Pete is ultimately going nowhere due to his homosexuality because he has no black supporters:
Warren’s supporters tend to be mainstream, college-educated liberals more than they are leftists, which helps to explain how Buttiegieg’s rise has been a bit of a problem for her. https://t.co/DJwAMGexEM
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 18, 2019
What if the U.S. junked the two party system and instead had multiple parties? We polled profiles of five new political parties. Here’s who would win the most votes, and here’s who would capture various demographics. (THREAD) https://t.co/cczfYRkGHJ
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
U.S. registered voter support in a multi-party democracy:
28% Labor (working class center-left)
21% Conservative (traditional-right, pre-Trump)
19% Nationalist (basically Trump)
12% “Acela Party” (socially liberal, globalist, fiscally centrist)
10% Green (basically AOC) pic.twitter.com/7tBD3g6Skn
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
While the right would be split down the middle between the choice of a Trumpist or a traditional conservative party, Democratic voters would gravitate towards a Labor Party, giving them plurality support. pic.twitter.com/59SrCHdQzk
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
While the right would be split down the middle between the choice of a Trumpist or a traditional conservative party, Democratic voters would gravitate towards a Labor Party, giving them plurality support. pic.twitter.com/59SrCHdQzk
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
An “Acela Party” patterned after Mike Bloomberg and Howard Schultz has no special appeal to Independents or moderates. It runs 4th in both those groups. It’s basically a cosmopolitan-left party. pic.twitter.com/rP1wjOyMTH
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
The Acela-ites do however come close to being the top choice of college educated whites, nearly tying the Labor Party which has more than 2x the support in the electorate as a whole (see disconnect between urban professionals and median voter) pic.twitter.com/M68wXh69hz
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
Support for far-left Greens is generational in nature. Younger voters support them but a steep drop-off with older voters, similar to Sanders primary support. pic.twitter.com/8ubzBmrDDK
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
Quelle surprise: Warren voters actually not that interested in a far left party, instead preferring the wine-track Acela. Contrast that with Sanders voters. pic.twitter.com/ghezxa1p08
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
People considering Warren look like people considering Buttigieg (#1 in Acela support) more than they look like people considering Sanders. pic.twitter.com/VvPgaYNjNC
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
While discussion focuses on socialist far-left and possible Bloomberg counter, the bread-and-butter Dem Party represented by Joe Biden has the most pull with voters.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
Warren supporters aren’t actually revolutionaries. They’re comfortable liberals who live in upscale neighborhoods, exactly who Bloomberg would appeal to. But this brand of politics only gets 12% nationally.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
This America basically looks like the UK if you fuse together the Conservatives & Nationalists.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 18, 2019
I’m going to say it.
I have found the perfect candidate for the 2020s.
I’m tempted to say it ? https://t.co/YJhBLyUS1r
— EMPEROR WHITEPILL (@CptBlackPill) November 20, 2019
The ideal rightwing candidate would combine social conservatism with economic populism and authoritarianism. He would appeal to the working class center left, nationalists and conservatives on social issues. He would be the opposite of a libertarian.
No one currently on deck in 2020 seems to fit that description.
Source: http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2019/11/20/live-thread-fifth-2020-democratic-debate/
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