Fourth Turnings

What do you think of the theory?

As the theory goes, there is a cycle of generations. Every 80 years the country reaches a major crisis and sorts itself out: the American Revolution, Civil War and the Great Depression/World War II. Historical cycles play out like seasons: Spring (High), Summer (Awakening), Fall (Unraveling) and Winter (Crisis).

Wikipedia:

“According to the authors, the Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group.^[

The authors say the previous Fourth Turning in the US began with the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and climaxed with the end of World War II. The G.I. Generation (which they call a Hero archetype, born 1901 to 1924) came of age during this era. They say their confidence, optimism, and collective outlook epitomized the mood of that era. The authors assert the Millennial Generation (which they also describe as a Hero archetype, born 1982 to 2004) show many similar traits to those of the G.I. youth, which they describe as including: rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence …”

Anyway, recent events have got me thinking about the theory. I’ve never read the book, but I am familiar with the basic outline of the argument. The author was recently on the Peak Prosperity podcast.