Peter Turchin: I Predicted 2020 Would Be a Mess For The U.S. Could That Help Prevent a Second Civil War?

Who else is listening?

The BLM and Antifa violence has gotten so bad this month that Peter Turchin is looking at his data and freaking out. He has penned an op-ed in which he says we could be on the cusp of Civil War 2:

Globe and Mail:

“Ten years ago, I predicted that 2020 would mark “a new peak of violence” in the United States and Western Europe. It may have seemed like an unusual call, at the time; Western countries had actually been enjoying more stability prior to 2010.

But even I didn’t imagine that things could be as bad as they’ve gotten.

Political polarization and “rampage killings” – what have since been redefined as “domestic terrorism” – have risen dramatically. Accelerating climate change has exacerbated crises around refugees, food security, housing and more. The COVID-19 pandemic has left half a million people dead and shuttered economies. Anti-government demonstrations and violent riots, sparked by a Minneapolis police officer’s killing of George Floyd, have swept the U.S. It’s all added up to the worst outbreak of social instability since the 1960s. …

This was our theory of how revolutions are made – in ancient Rome, medieval France and now, the modern-day U.S. It requires high levels of discontent among the masses, but also leaders – and now there are many, thanks to the abundance of intra-elite competition and conflict, perhaps expressed most clearly by President Donald Trump, who spun his personal wealth into a divisive presidency.

In the U.S., we are getting awfully close to the point where a civil war or revolution becomes probable. Such “revolutionary situations” don’t always end in an actual revolution, however: Our historical analysis indicates that in some cases, wise leaders and prosocial segments of the elites, backed by broad-based social movements, are successful in adopting the right set of reforms to turn things back to stable waters. One familiar example from U.S. history is president Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. Another is the series of political reforms adopted in Britain under the pressure of the Chartism movement, which enabled it to escape the revolutions that swept continental Europe from 1848 to 1849.”

The “Far Right” has been quiet lately.

We have made a point to STAY OUT OF IT. We have played no role whatsoever in this violent insurrection. We have encouraged the relevant authorities to enforce the law and to quell the violence. Pretty much the entire Right is patiently waiting for something to be done about the insurrection.

There are no “two sides” participating here. It is Antifa and BLM rioting against the police, laying siege to the White House, tearing down monuments, attacking federal courthouses, etc. It is unambiguously the Far Left alone that is doing this with the tacit support of the Democratic Party.

We are blessed that “two sides” ARE NOT participating at the moment because if there were violent clashes it could be much worse. This side of the political spectrum is even trying to be helpful by exercising restraint and by amplifying what Peter Turchin is saying so that the message will hopefully be delivered to our elites and they can be sensible enough to pullback from the abyss before it is too late.

Actually, we do not want the Boogaloo to happen. It is BLM and Antifa who have been out there for a solid month trying their best to kick it off. Round them up and send them to prison, restore law and order and address the root cause of the crisis by getting rid of the neoliberal system before it is too late. Raise taxes on the billionaire and millionaire class. Put a cap on excessive wealth. Find some way to redistribute concentrated wealth like FDR did in the New Deal or else there will be hell to pay.

Note: The Democratic establishment also desperately needs to seek mental health counseling for Trump Derangement Syndrome. The president tweets and does nothing except pass Jeb Bush’s milquetoast agenda.