2020 Autopsy: Upper Middle Class

Editor’s Note: This is a work in progress.

How did the upper middle class vote in the swing states?

How did Republicans vote? How did Conservatives vote? How did Trumpism 2.0 change?

Iowa

+$100,000 Voters (27% of electorate) – 50% Trump, 46% Biden

+$100,000 Voters (21% of electorate) – 49% Trump, 43% Hillary

In Iowa, the upper middle class size of the electorate was 6 points greater in 2016. It went for Trump by 4 points instead of 7 points.

Conservatives (39% of electorate) – 90% Trump, 8% Biden

Conservatives (40% of electorate) – 84% Trump, 11% Hillary

In Iowa, Trump did a lot better with Conservatives.

Republicans (36% of electorate) – 93% Trump, 7% Biden

Republicans (34% of electorate) – 90% Trump, 6% Biden

In Iowa, the Republican size of the electorate grew by 2 points. Trump performed 3 points better with Republicans.

Pennsylvania

+$100,000 Voters (29% of electorate) – 50% Trump, 49% Biden

+$100,000 Voters (31% of electorate) – 52% Trump, 45% Hillary

In Pennsylvania, the upper middle class size of the electorate shrank slightly. Trump won it by 1 point instead of by 7 points.

Conservatives (34% of electorate) – 87% Trump, 12% Biden

Conservatives (33% of electorate) – 85% Trump, 12% Hillary

In Pennsylvania, Trump did better with Conservatives.

Republicans (41% of electorate) – 91% Trump, 8% Biden

Republicans (39% of electorate) – 89% Trump, 9% Hillary

In Pennsylvania, the Republican size of the electorate grew by 2 points. Trump did 1 or 2 points better with Republicans.

Wisconsin

+$100,000 Voters (27% of electorate) – 55% Trump, 44% Biden

+$100,000 Voters (27% of electorate) – 48% Hillary, 46% Trump

In Wisconsin, the upper middle class size of the electorate remained static. Trump won it by 11 points instead of losing it by 2 points.

Conservatives (36% of electorate) – 87% Trump, 11% Biden

Conservatives (34% of electorate) – 85% Trump, 11% Hillary

In Wisconsin, Trump won more Conservatives.

Republicans (37% of electorate) – 93% Trump, 7% Biden

Republicans (34% of electorate) – 90% Trump, 6% Hillary.

In Wisconsin, the Republican size of the electorate grew by 3 points. Trump won more Republicans in Wisconsin.

Michigan

+$100,000 Voters (29% of electorate) – 54% Trump, 43% Biden

+$100,000 Voters (21% of electorate) – 51% Trump, 43% Hillary

In Michigan, the upper middle class size of the electorate grew by 8 points. Trump won it by 9 points instead of 8 points.

Conservatives (37% of electorate) – 88% Trump, 11% Biden

Conservatives (36% of electorate) – 79% Trump, 17% Hillary

In Michigan, Trump did much better with Conservatives.

Republicans (37% of electorate) – 93% Trump, 6% Biden

Republicans (31% of electorate) – 90% Trump, 7% Hillary

In Michigan, the Republican size of the electorate grew by 6 points. Trump won a lot more Republicans in Michigan.

Minnesota

+$100,000 Voters (33% of electorate) – 56% Biden, 43% Trump

+$100,000 Voters (37% of electorate) – 52% Hillary, 41% Trump

In Minnesota, the upper middle class size of he electorate shrank by 4 points. Joe Biden won it by 4 points more than Hillary.

Conservatives (33% of electorate) – 89% Trump, 10% Biden

Conservatives (32% of electorate) – 82% Trump, 11% Hillary

In Minnesota, Trump did 7 points better with Conservatives.

Republicans (34% of electorate) – 91% Trump, 8% Biden

Republicans (35% of electorate) – 86% Trump, 7% Hillary

In Minnesota, Trump won 5% more of the Republican vote.