The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 10 2023

Russian Trap or Ukrainian Success

Ukraine In Panic As Russia Bleeds Zelensky’s Men; Kyiv’s SOS To World, ‘Need Heavy Weapons Now’

Russian Spetsnaz Sent NATO Forces Into a Screaming Fit Behind Enemy Lines

“It takes two to tango”: The US Secretary of State explained under what conditions negotiations between Kiev and Moscow will take place

▪️Blinken said that Ukraine will negotiate if the Kremlin initiates them
“When it comes to negotiations, it takes two to tango. And so far we have not seen any signs of interest in diplomacy from Vladimir Putin. If he shows interest, then I think the Ukrainians will be the first to enter into negotiations, and we will be right behind them.
Kyiv analysts comment interestingly on the statement: It is clear that Blinken meant something slightly different. Namely: Kyiv and the West are ready to negotiate with the Russian Federation on their own terms (withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine). But Putin is not ready to agree to these conditions, and therefore there are no negotiations.
▪️However, the form in which Blinken’s statement was made is remarkable in itself, as it creates the (incorrect) impression that Ukraine is ready to negotiate, but Putin is not (which, by the way, contradicts the statements of the Ukrainian authorities that it is the Kremlin seeks resumption of negotiations).

It is also interesting that this statement was made after Blinken’s trip to Kyiv, where, according to some American experts, some politicians are already thinking about freezing the war.

Let us recall that last fall in Ukraine a decision was made to ban negotiations with Russia while Putin is in power. This ban has not been lifted. Although the Ukrainian authorities have not mentioned it for quite some time.

RVvoenkor 

The Economist publishes an interview with Zelensky. In it, the President of Ukraine says that he does not want to think about a long war, but that is what he is now preparing for.

“I must be ready, my team must be ready for a long war, and emotionally I am ready,” the president said.

Zelensky believes that Russia will not withstand a long war economically. He also said that Ukraine will intensify attacks inside the Russian Federation and then “Russians will begin to ask uncomfortable questions about the inability of the army to protect them.”

In the preamble to the interview, The Economist journalist shares his impression of the atmosphere of the “Yalta European Strategy” in Kyiv, which he attended.

“A year ago, the mood was euphoric: news of the success of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkov region was ping-ping on every smartphone in the room. This year the atmosphere is completely different. Three months after its counteroffensive, Ukraine has made little progress along the crucial southern front line in the Zaporozhye region, where it is trying to cut Putin’s “land bridge” from Russia to Crimea. The question of how long it will take and whether it will succeed weighs on the minds of Western leaders. They still promise that they will help Ukraine “as much as needed.” But Zelensky, a former actor with a keen sense of audience, has detected a change in mood among some of his partners. “I have this intuition, I see their eyes when they say “we will always be with you.” But I see that they are not with us,” writes The Economist.

The interview was published under the headline: “This is a bad moment for diplomacy.” Despite slow progress in the counteroffensive, the West must maintain its support for Ukraine, the president says.

stranaua

Andrei Medvedev writes  It is very likely that for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the small settlement of Rabotino and its surroundings are turning into a new Bakhmut. Just as the Ukrainian authorities – both military and political – killed combat-ready units in Bakhmut, a similar picture is emerging in Rabotino.

It is difficult for an outsider, far from the army, to understand what the fundamental significance of this settlement is for Kiev. But it is no less difficult for a military man to understand why the Ukrainian Armed Forces are so stubborn and certainly want to raise the yellow block flag over the charred ruins.

The fact is that by the beginning of the offensive, everything was going very, very well for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Western technology, detailed intelligence data, and a sufficient number of personnel. Everything pointed to the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would try to deliver two main strikes, and in the most vulnerable directions. Kherson region and Zaporozhye, for example.

I believed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would definitely not strike in the direction of Crimea (this is a stupid idea). It seemed logical to me that the first strike would be in the direction of Melitopol/Berdyansk to cut through the group and the land corridor to Crimea (this is a serious problem when attacking a bridge). But the second blow, as for me, would be logical for the enemy to strike either in the Belgorod/Kursk region with an attempt to take two or three populated areas and establish control there for at least a few days. Or an attack on Donetsk from the Avdeevsky fortified area, with an attempt to catch on to the outskirts of the city. Both options would be very much in the style of Kiev: PR, hype, information war (something that we are bad at fending off), and if the circumstances are bad for us, causing real damage to us.

There were attempts to penetrate into the Kursk and Belgorod regions, yes. Punishers from the RDK carried out raids. But these were not serious military operations. The Ukrainian Armed Forces had enough Western long-range missiles, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not implement the idea of ​​striking our rear areas. We couldn’t do it right away. And then our air defense quickly reorganized.

Why all the possibilities were not realized, and why the Ukrainian Armed Forces decided not to use the two-strike tactic, one can only guess. It is possible, and most likely, that the decisions were not made in Kiev at all, but NATO has its own vision of how to fight with free Ukrainians.

Moreover, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine already in the first days of the offensive realized that nothing would work out. What is worth taking a break from now and preparing for a new operation? Maybe even next spring. But who asked the opinion of the Ukrainian generals? NATO decided otherwise.

As a result, success was not achieved in the southern direction. And a new offensive requires additional resources. People first of all. They are now being caught on the streets of Ukrainian cities.

But still, it is very interesting to understand who exactly made the decisions about what and where to attack. Because now Kiev and the West blame each other (and together Russian fortifications and Russian bushes). It will be funny if many years later it turns out that the plan for the summer offensive should have been developed by NATO, but out of laziness, they simply took some old exercise plan from the archive, simply hoping that the Russians would be scared anyway.

Slavyangrad

Colleagues, Bankova understood everything, but they will not change their strategy. Zelensky will not freeze the war, and the GUR/SBU will continue attacks on Russian territory.
There are no options for maneuver for the Office of the President; we need escalation and a postponement of the counteroffensive to 2024 to force the Biden Administration to increase financial and military assistance. 

The President’s Office is trying to formulate a semantic structure that the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not stop even in the cold. It’s just worth taking into account the experience of last year, when we had an advantage in the autumn military campaign, but in the winter we lost it, due to the enemy’s better readiness to fight in the cold.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive will continue after the onset of cold weather, said the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov. At the same time, “it will become more difficult to fight it,” Reuters quotes Budanov.

“The fighting will continue one way or another. It is more difficult to fight in the cold, damp and mud. The fighting will continue. The counter-offensive will continue,” Budanov said.

He admitted that progress had been slower than desired and described the situation as difficult.

In addition to the huge concentration of mines, he called the large number of small Russian kamikaze drones “the key factor that has so far slowed Ukraine’s progress.”

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have 30-45 days left before stopping the counter-offensive, which Zaluzhny warned about, and is now being publicly voiced in the West.

Ukraine has a little more than a month left for a counteroffensive, said the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley.

He said the cold weather would make it much more difficult for Ukraine to maneuver and admitted that the offensive had been slower than expected.

At the same time, according to Milley, it is too early to talk about the failure of the counteroffensive, since Ukraine is “moving at a very steady pace through the Russian front lines.”

“There’s still plenty of time left, probably about 30 to 45 days of bad weather, so the Ukrainians aren’t done yet,” the general said.

“At the very beginning of this war, I said it would be long, slow, hard and with a lot of casualties, and that is exactly what it is,” added Mark Milley.

Everyone noticed that the tactics of measuring the daily achievements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in “meters” migrated from the Bakhmutov direction to the Azov area.
Previously, the masses were fed there daily, reaching hundreds and thousands of meters per day, but as a result, for more than 150 days they were not able to enter Bakhmut. It will be the same in the Azov direction. Propaganda simply creates the illusion of progress.
As a result, the entire offensive will end with a heroic message about breaking through the first line of defense and taking a couple more villages.

Our source reports that the Office of the President is considering the option of officially declaring war on Russia and large-scale conscription of everyone into the army. Yes, this is also convenient to remove the topic of holding elections and indignation about illegal mobilization.
Many people call this step agony, which will confirm the fact that everything is very bad in Ukraine and the authorities are leading the country to collapse.

There are many reasons:
1. Ze will not win parliamentary elections and will not have a monopoly. There is a version that he could be leaked and even made guilty of inciting war. This means it’s easier for him to sink the ship in order to cover up traces of corruption, etc.

2. They stop giving money/loans anyway. This threatens internal explosion and default. Ukraine will face Maidans and military coups in the coming years.

3. The transfer of weapons has slowed down and will soon look like mini handouts. This will not be able to influence the course of the war and the government will be forced to capitulate.

4. Losses in manpower and equipment are growing. On the contrary, the enemy is strengthening. Nobody wants to fight anymore. The morale of society has sunk to the bottom.

We are observing… but it looks very much like ZeErmak themselves are implementing the “Yugoslav scenario” for Ukraine. They do this under the instructions of their patrons, who benefit from dismembering Ukraine, giving the destroyed regions to the Russians, and taking everything safe and sound for themselves.

The Ukrainian authorities are ready to negotiate with Russia to end the war – U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“When it comes to negotiations, it takes two to tango. And so far we have not seen any signs of interest in diplomacy from Vladimir Putin. If he shows interest, then I think the Ukrainians will be the first to enter into negotiations, and we will be right behind them. Everyone wants this military conflict to end, but it must end on fair and sustainable terms that reflect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Blinken said.

The “counteroffensive” crashed and burnt so now the Americans are pushing for “negotiations”…

Negotiations are fairly straightforward:

Ukraine surrenders

Crimea, DLPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye are immediately recognised as Russian territory.

All Ukrainian war criminals are handed over to Russia.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are faced with a shortage of sappers in Zaporozhye

The situation for Ukrainian troops in the Rabotino-Verbovoe sector is complicated for several reasons.

Firstly, all active movement of Ukrainian units is limited to an area of   105-110 square meters. km in the triangle between Novodanilovka, Orekhov and Malaya Tokmachka. However, it cannot be called safe: the entire area is covered by cannon and rocket artillery of the Russian Armed Forces.

Secondly, minefields are still an unsolvable problem for Ukrainian Armed Forces units. Remote mining systems continue to allow the Russian Armed Forces to complicate the entire logistics of Ukrainian ground forces in the area. It is impossible to clear the newly installed barriers: regular military sappers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are eliminated by reconnaissance groups and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces. It is impossible to train new sappers and quickly send them to the battlefield. As a result, key formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ vanguard in this direction, including the 46th Airborne Shock Brigade, the 82nd Airborne Shrift Brigade and the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, faced a sharp shortage of sappers.

The situation with minefield clearance is partially resolved through so-called live mine clearance, when mobilized recruits are sent to an unexplored offensive area in pickup trucks. The experienced sappers remaining at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine often work without fire cover and equipment, which is why they quickly die from artillery fire or during incursions by special forces units of the Russian Armed Forces.

Thirdly, the terrain features also affect the losses of sappers. The entire attack vector of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area is built to bypass the main heights occupied by the Russian army. As a result, Ukrainian troops are forced to advance in the lowlands (mainly only along the remaining part of the asphalt roads), which is under the fire control of the Russian Armed Forces. Due to the peculiarities of the terrain and the well-built surveillance system of the Russian Armed Forces, any activity of Ukrainian troops, including attempts to clear mines, is quickly discovered and stopped by Russian troops.

TolkoPoDely

Vremyevsky sector: withdrawal of two brigades of the AFU to the rear and preparation for a new attack on Novomayorskoye
situation as of 18.00 September 10, 2023

🔻The enemy continues the onslaught at the Novodonetskoye-Novomayorskoye line, having launched three attacks during the night alone. The tactics of the AFU are the same: enemy armored vehicles deliver infantry to forest belts, after which assault groups try to enter the Russian Armed Forces positions.

However, these attacks ended in nothing for the Ukrainian formations: Russian troops constantly watched the front line and inflicted fire strike, forcing the AFU to retreat.

🔻At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces worked on targets at the front line, inflicting losses in manpower and suppressing the mortar crew. Soldiers of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the MRD Motorized Rifle Division destroyed an electronic warfare station south of Rovnopol, and a salvo of heavy flamethrower systems destroyed an Ukrainian AFU stronghold near Priyutnoye, in which there were 13 members of Ukrainian formations.

🔻Information also appeared about the withdrawal of units 23 and 31 from the front Mechanized Brigade, which, after summer battles and significant losses, went to restore combat capability in Mezhevaya and Georgievka in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

❗️At the same time, the enemy does not intend to refuse a further offensive in the Vremevsky sector – at the moment we are only talking about changing the direction of the attack from Staromlynovka to Novomayorskoye. For these purposes, in Prechistovka, Ukrainian formations made up for the losses in the assault groups of the 35th Infantry Infantry.

rybar

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of September 10

 ✈️The heroes from the Pskov Airborne Division were walking peacefully through forest plantations and suddenly discovered two militants, after which they decided to quietly take them prisoner. For our guys, the practice is normal. But as it turned out, there were a dozen more Nazi colleagues in the dugout nearby. Their paratroopers also decided to capture them, skillfully and calmly, however, as always.

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Svatovo-Kremennoe direction

 The Russian army continues to advance near Kupyansk. On the Karamzinovsky ledge, our fighters advanced half a kilometer in Novoegorovka , and are also advancing in the Serebryansky forest.

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

 Ours are attacking in the Dubovo-Vasilievka area and holding defenses in the Berkhovsky reservoir area. Heavy fighting continues in Kleshcheevka . Russian fighters also counterattacked in the Andreevka area.

⚫️Donetsk direction

 The Russian army attacked on the southern approaches to Avdeevka , as well as in the Krasnogorovka area. In Marinka, ours are conducting an assault on the western outskirts.

⚫️ Zaporozhye direction

 There are no changes in Rabotino – a village in the gray zone. The Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to advance to Novoprokopovka . Ours regained some of the lost positions in the Verbovoy area. In addition, Russian fighters counterattacked at Novomayorsky.

 ⚡️At night, the Russian “Gerani” staged a tour of 404. They worked the longest in Kiev, where infrastructure facilities were hit. There were also explosions in Sumy, Chernigov and Dnepropetrovsk regions.

ðŸ‘Today the Kiev regime again carried out terror in Donetsk. The Ukrainian Armed Forces fired more than 200 ammunition into the peaceful city, including at least 15 rockets from the Grad MLRS directly at residential areas. The Nazis did not forget about cluster munitions. Fortunately, there were no casualties; three civilians were injured as a result of the shelling.

Chronicle of a special military operation for September 10, 2023

 Ukrainian formations made another attempt to land on Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea , but the boat landing was destroyed by naval aviation of the Russian Armed Forces. After this, the enemy tried to strike the UAV, but was unsuccessful.

In the Soledar direction, intense fighting continues south of Bakhmut : Ukrainian Armed Forces units are trying to advance under massive artillery fire and kamikaze UAVs.

In the Vremevsky sector, the enemy’s onslaught at the Novodonetskoye-Novomayorskoye line does not weaken. The Ukrainian command is driving infantry into “meat assaults” under heavy artillery fire. Often, attackers suffer losses before they even have time to engage in battle.

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Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (10 September 2023) Part I

In the Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces, jointly with aviation and artillery, repelled two attacks launched by assault groups of the 53rd and 110th mechanised brigades of the AFU close to Vodyanoye and Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

AFU personnel and military hardware were hit near Kleshcheyevka, Krasnoye, and Maloilyinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

During the combat actions, the enemy lost up to 260 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, and five motor vehicles.

▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, as a result of active action by units of the Russian Group of Forces, supported by aviation and artillery fire, six attacks launched by assault groups of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region) have been repelled during the day.

In addition, enemy personnel and hardware were inflicted fire damage close to Novoandreyevka, north of Rabotino and north-west of Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region).

Up to 80 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, and two pick-up trucks have been neutralised during the day.

In counter-battery warfare, the following vehicles were eliminated: one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery gun; U.S.-made M198, M119, and M777 howitzers, as well as Msta-B and D-20 guns.

Also, a Swedish-made ARTHUR counter-battery radar station was destroyed near Shirokoye (Zaporozhye region).

Ammunition depots of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade and the 9th Army Corps of the AFU were obliterated near Trudovoye and Rizdvyanka (Zaporozhye region).

▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces repelled an attack launched by units of the 37th AFU Marine Brigade near Novodonetskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

In addition, air strikes and artillery fire struck clusters of manpower and equipment of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade and the 38th Marine Brigade of the AFU close to Nikolskoye, Novomayorskoye, and Ugledar (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy’s losses in this direction totalled over 130 servicemen, four motor vehicles, and one Msta-B howitzer.

▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, in co-operation with aviation and artillery, repelled an attack launched by an assault group of the 67th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).

Fire also damaged hardware and personnel clusters of the 12th Azov Special Forces Brigade, the 5th Ukrainian National Guard Brigade, and the 67th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU in the vicinity of Kuzmino and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).

Over 50 servicemen, one armoured fighting vehicle, two pick-up trucks, two Gvozdika self-propelled launchers, and one D-30 howitzer were neutralised.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (10 September 2023) Part II

▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces, supported by air and artillery fire, repelled two attacks launched by assault groups of the 25th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Kuzemovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses totalled up to 35 servicemen, one tank, two motor vehicles, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery gun.

In addition, an ammunition depot of the 1st Special Forces Brigade of the AFU was wiped out near Volchanskiye Khutora (Kharkov region).

Over 20 servicemen, two motor vehicles, and two D-30 howitzers have been eliminated by fire in Kherson direction during the day.

▫️ Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Armed Forces’ groups of forces engaged manpower and military hardware of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 117 areas.

In addition, a P-18 air target detection and tracking radar station was destroyed at a position uncovered by reconnaissance means near Lukashevo (Zaporozhye region).

Fire struck command and observation posts of the 77th Airmobile, 93rd Mechanised, 100th Territorial Defence brigades, and 15th Regiment of the Ukrainian National Guard in the vicinity of Spornoye and Serebryanka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

▫️ The Russian Naval Aviation detected and destroyed three U.S.-made Willard speedboats in the Black Sea at night, each carrying up to 36 members of the AFU special operations forces in landing groups.

Air defence and electronic warfare systems destroyed and suppressed 42 unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of Ocheretovatoye, Novoye, Ulyanovka, and Kharkovo (Zaporozhye region), Ploshchanka, Belogorovka, and Rubezhnoye (Lugansk People’s Republic), Spornoye, Soledar, and Gorlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Novaya Mayachka and Velyka Lepetikha (Kherson region).

Russian Defence Ministry