Update on Ukraine: New Offensive Coming [29 September 2023]
BEGINNING OF RUSSIAN AUTUMN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE? – Ukraine D580-582 Conclusion
Battlefield Ukraine Innovation and Initiative
Our source from the Office of the President reported that there is a conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhny on the issue of the landing operation on the Dnieper, the Commander-in-Chief is fundamentally against it.
Today information has emerged that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing a new stage of a counteroffensive in early October in the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions.
It is alleged that the Ukrainian army intends to cross the Dnieper, as well as take control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant with a special forces strike
Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
For these purposes, a large group of UAF marines is concentrated in the Nikolaev region to cross the Dnieper River.
At the same time, the AFU special forces , trained under the guidance of British instructors, are planning actions to seize the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.
/RIA Novosti citing a source in law enforcement agencies/
“To this end, a large group of AFU marines has been concentrated in the Nikolaev region to force the Dnepr River. At the same time, the special units of the AFU Special Forces, trained by British instructors, are planning actions to seize the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant,” the interlocutor said.
As the source noted, “this is nothing but another adventure of Zelensky, trying to prove his worthiness at any cost, it can lead to tragic consequences”.
Against the backdrop of the failure of the counteroffensive and failures in the international political arena, Zelensky vitally needs victories. Therefore, the next round of escalation in Crimea looks very logical.
In addition, the topic of Crimea is very important to the Western owner; the return of the peninsula back to Russia was painfully perceived by Western elites. For them, Crimea has become a fundamental and obsessional idea.
Of course, taking Crimea under control is an impossible task for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, even with the most favorable course of upcoming events at the front. But causing damage, primarily media damage, is a relatively realistic task.
We see two options for the development of further events.
1) If the initiator is Zelensky.
It will be performed by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Resources are limited. They will act based on available forces and resources. They will count on the effect of surprise and personal audacity in actions. For example, a MTR group lands on the shore. Commits shelling of any coastal objects from RPGs or heavy machine guns, recording this action on camera and back to mainland Ukraine. Even with losses, because media is more important for them.
If successful, this will give Zelensky a reason to beg for money from the Western masters, and will raise the morale of the Ukrainian warriors slightly and temporarily, but only slightly.
2) If the initiator is Great Britain.
The Anglo-Saxons are very fond of landing operations. Here you can carry out a large-scale war, in the conditions of a modern war, with modern reconnaissance systems, and even with the wrong hands. And all primarily for the sake of making additions to your manuals on this topic. They don’t care how many Ukrainians die. However, this operation will also fall on the shoulders of SBS – the Special Boat Service, the special operations unit of the British Royal Navy. This will give Ukrainian warriors the opportunity to use large forces, excellent technical equipment and intelligence data online, because some MQ-9 “Reaper” will be circling in the sky over the Black Sea all this time.
That’s how we see it.
It is extremely difficult to completely control the Crimean coastline. A NATO air reconnaissance aircraft will be great at identifying the loophole. Therefore, a covert approach of a small special group on boats will be carried out to this loophole. Approaching the maximum permissible distance. It is possible to use divers under water and exit on shore. Cleaning up the patrol, perhaps even disabling Bastion, so that the rest of the group can pass unnoticed on boats. And then events can develop in three ways:
1) Large forces on boats will approach, inflict fire damage (loud enough that it cannot be hidden from the public), possibly causing great destruction, casualties, or even taking prisoners. After a quick departure.
2) A large group approaching creates noise, which will become a distraction. And at this time, a small sabotage group will go deep into the peninsula to hit a more important, maybe even strategic, object in Crimea and commit more global sabotage. Perhaps even with the taking of hostages from important people. After which, the group will depart along a different route and through another section of the coast, where an evacuation group will be waiting for them at the specified coordinates and at the specified time.
3) Using one of the methods described above, organize the passage of fighters into the territory of Crimea and entry into the coastal city. Try to take control of some areas of this city and gain a foothold there. They won’t have a chance to survive in the end, but it will be very good for a loud picture in the media.
Simultaneously with any of these options, the enemy will carry out a massive attack with attack drones, unmanned boats, cruise missiles, etc.
“To this day, no one can give us a clear answer as to what our victory means. They tell us, we will support you until – and beyond, I have never heard the phrase “victory” anywhere. They say, “until you decide for yourself make certain decisions.” And we need to clearly understand – they are with us until victory or they are with us for a certain period of time, and then they will look and draw certain conclusions,” said the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
Yesterday, the press service of the North Atlantic Alliance announced the transfer of two E-3A long-range radar detection aircraft to the Siauliai airbase . One of the Sentris has already flown from the Turkish base of Konya , and the second is likely to arrive soon.
The news was accompanied by standard language about the threat from Russia and the need to increase NATO capabilities on the Baltic flank . 150 service personnel will also be sent to Siauliai.
ðŸ”»Indeed, the deployment of two E-3A in Lithuania will significantly expand the detection radius of Russian aviation and air defense in the northwestern part of the Russian Federation, as well as in Belarus. This is despite the fact that the Italian G-550 AWACS aircraft is already stationed in Siauliai.
This looks especially interesting against the background of the increasingly frequent flights of strategic aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces from Olenya to strike Ukraine. Their appearance in Lithuania makes it easier to monitor the bombers of the aerospace forces.
However, previously, constantly on duty E-3As from other air bases, such as Geilenkirchen , were quite enough for this. The fact that they were placed near the borders of the Russian Federation may mean that the Alliance is preparing for some important events in this direction.
Suspicious NATO intelligence activity is again observed in the southwestern part of the Black Sea : an American RQ-4B UAV and a British RC-135 aircraft are circling in the same area north of the Bosphorus .
Also a little to the south, the Turkish ATR-72 base patrol aircraft of the Turkish Navy monitors the surface space. Prior to this, two American MQ-9A Reaper drones were in this zone all night.
ðŸ”»Such NATO activity in the Black Sea is usually observed when ships of the Black Sea Fleet are there. And this is usually accompanied by attempts to attack them with unmanned boats: NATO intelligence directs BECs and evaluates the results.
According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, attacks of such scale and intensity have not been recorded before.
According to preliminary data, there are at least 8 powerful arrivals in the city. About half of them took place at the military airfield in Vinnitsa and weapons depots in various parts of the region – Military Chronicle.
At the same time, the air raid warning in the region was announced several times, which indirectly indicates several waves of drones. Presumably, a swarm of “Geraniums” was used. The exact number of drones and their type have not yet been established, however, according to preliminary data, rough estimate of 15-20 drones.
Ukrainian channels also report that after the drones operated, missiles of an unknown type were allegedly involved, to which the local air defense system did not respond.
There is also a risk of a missile strike, as a Russian reconnaissance UAV was circling in the Odessa region today
Be careful both from Russian strikes and from the “work” of air defense.
The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is withdrawing the 47th brigade from the Rabotino area to the rear due to its refusal to carry out combat missions amid high losses, – Russian Ministry of Defense.
The 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade “Magura” was trained by NATO specialists and armed with Western equipment. During the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the brigade suffered colossal losses, which led to its withdrawal from the front line.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the 47th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is being withdrawn to rear areas to restore combat effectiveness due to huge losses and refusal of personnel to go into battle.
We cannot confirm this with certainty yet, but we cannot completely rule out this option. The 47th mechanized brigade has been actively involved in the battles at the Rabotino-Verbovoye line for the past few weeks.
ðŸ”»The “meat assault” tactics allowed us to advance only a couple of tens of meters in just over three months, and the losses of the opponents were, to put it mildly, high.
The 47th brigade is being sent for replenishment for the third time – and this applies not only to this unit. A similar fate befell the 82nd Separate Brigade , the 46th Separate Brigade , and even the 71st Regiment , which entered the battle a few weeks ago.
At the same time, the withdrawal of the 47th mechanized brigade to the rear will not significantly affect the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area. There are still enough separate formations of air assault troops and the National Guard there. And the preparation of new brigades is in full swing.
Episodic clashes continued in the direction of Verbovoy , accompanied by the active work of artillery and a wide range of other weapons. Despite this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves are being pulled into the surrounding forest plantations; they are now carrying out mine clearance work for the purpose of a future offensive.
It is reported that units of the 47th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being withdrawn for replenishment and restoration of combat effectiveness due to losses suffered. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have enough reserves in the direction.
South of Rabotino the situation has stabilized: clashes continue in the gray zone. Novoprokopovka is controlled by the Russian Armed Forces.
Airborne troops along with a former Wagner assault force entered the village of Veseloye, located north of Soledar. An intense and tough battle is underway. Artillery and drones of all kinds work successfully. Ours are making progress.
There are also further successes in Orekhovo-Vasilievka where former Wagner fighters fight together with VDV units. They advance further into the village. The fighting is slowly but surely approaching the western part of the settlement.
Yesterday, a video of an attack by a Kh-38ML guided missile on a bridge over the Oskol River near the village of Senkovo appeared online. The projectile was fired by a fighter-bomber, and the target designation was carried out by the Orlan UAV. The hit was precisely in the middle of the bridge, which will complicate its further repair. The use of this type of rocket was captured for the first time.
Coordinates: 49.526994, 37.691512
Now the enemy has only one bridge left across the Oskol reservoir in the area of the village of Gorokhovatka .
It is noteworthy that later footage of an attack on another crossing was published: such attacks on small bridges and crossings should be carried out systematically to disrupt the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 582:
Since the summer until yesterday the Russian aircraft destroyed practically all the bridges over the Oskil River between Kupiansk/Куп’янськ and Kruhlyakivka/Круглякіквка that connected the troops on the Luhansk front with the rear in Kharkov. Despite the fact that there are still bridges further south the supply lines to the Ukrainian army are extending more and more so the troops could start suffering from a shortage of supplies soon and that would eventually lead to a progressive retreat towards the Oskil River.
With the weakening of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south the fronts extending from the Oskil river to the north of Bakhmut will be reactivated and it is very likely that we will see a Russian offensive action, perhaps a new Bakhmut is in the sights….
Despite their failures in the previous days, the enemy attempted to attack the Torskoy bulge once more. Militants from the 67th battalion approached the ridge in an armored vehicle and two pickup trucks, advancing toward our positions. A battle ensued, and AFU soldiers took cover. Subsequently, they came under fire from our mortars. Realizing the futility of advancing further, the enemy began to retreat. As they approached Ukrainian positions, they were once again targeted by our artillery, reducing one pickup truck to rubble.
In the Serebryansky forest, our troops successfully carried out a daring raid and captured (https://t.me/btr80/10951) several Ukrainian fighters.
The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces continues in the Kupyansk direction. If the pace is generally maintained, the position of the Ukrainian army in this area may become significantly more complicated.
What’s happening near Kupyansk?
At the moment, the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in this area is concentrated on the objects and rear zones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on an area of approximately 750 square meters. km. This includes not only and not so much Kupyansk itself, but its surroundings – from Kolesnikovka in the south to Kamenka in the north. There are no active battles in the Sinkovka – Petropavlovka and Kislovka – Kotlyarovka sections at the moment; all combat work is focused mainly on the destruction of the resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – warehouses with weapons and equipment, barracks and temporary deployment points, as well as headquarters. At the same time, it is reported that key road bridges in the area have been destroyed. It was reported about the explosion of the central bridge over Oskol, as well as attacks on crossings in the settlements of Nevskoye and Makeevka. These channels were used to transport Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves in the Svatovsky and Kupyansky directions.
What is the effect of destroying bridges?
In addition to disrupted logistics in Kupyansk itself, divided by the Oskol River into two parts, the destruction of bridges may lead to other consequences. The city is an important logistics hub where the P-07 highway (west to Kharkov and east to the front) and T-2109 (from north to south) converge. In addition, Kupyansk is an important railway junction: through it, branches go west to Chuguev and further to Kharkov, as well as south to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. In addition to the terminals and railway tracks in Kupyansk itself, on the left bank of the Oskol River there is also the Kupyansk-Uzlovoy station with a well-equipped transshipment base with warehouses, warehouses and a large number of access roads. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose this area along with adjacent settlements, then the entire group of Ukrainian troops on the left bank risks being cut off from the main supply line, as has already happened during the battles for Artyomovsk.
Kupyansk is located on the Oskol River. This is a relatively narrow river (10-40 m), but with marshy and wooded banks. It is a natural barrier and can complicate the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces after the destruction of the bridges and, on the contrary, become a line of defense of the Russian Armed Forces on the left bank.
How many forces does the Ukrainian Armed Forces have in Kupyansk?
The Kupyansky district abuts the border with the Belgorod region. Due to the constant activity of Russian Aerospace Forces aviation, Ukrainian troops have to act here with extreme caution. Supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces group on the left and right banks of Kupyansk is gradually becoming more difficult due to the activity of operational-tactical aviation and the use of FAB-500 aerial bombs with planning and correction modules.
With the development of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in this area, not only the logistics of the Kharkov direction may be disrupted, but also the connection of the transport and logistics system with the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine redirect a significant part of military cargo and military equipment, the repair of which is carried out in Kharkov, may be broken.
In addition, if the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in this direction develops, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to urgently think through plans for retreat or supplying units of several large formations: the 30th and 67th mechanized brigades, the 95th air assault brigade, as well as at least three brigades territorial defense – 101, 105 and 106th.
All of them are currently in different positions and do not have a clear connection, as well as a plan for interaction with each other in the event of a front collapse.
If the Ukrainian command decides to hold on to positions on the left bank until the last, then the group will have to be supplied and supported through the “bottlenecks” of temporary crossings, under the fire influence of the Russian Armed Forces. Moreover, this will have to be done in difficult terrain and in the autumn-winter period, which will greatly complicate both logistics and combat operations.
During the day, Ukrainian DRGs attempted to penetrate Russian territory in the Bryansk region . One group of 50 people operated in the Lomakovka area, the other, under the cover of an infantry fighting vehicle, in the Kamensky farm area. The attack was repelled by Russian troops.
In the morning, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out a massive drone raid on the Kursk region . At least ten enemy aircraft were shot down. One of them attacked a substation in Belaya Sloboda, Belovsky district. In addition, another device was shot down in the sky over the Kaluga region .
NATO reconnaissance has again intensified in the southwestern part of the Black Sea . Two aircraft were seen north of the Bosphorus . Two more reconnaissance assets patrolled the Black Sea waters. Such activity is usually observed in anticipation of attacks on Crimea or ships of the Black Sea Fleet .
⚡️At night, the Russian army worked on military and industrial infrastructure 404 in the Kharkov, Sumy and Nikolaev regions. The Ministry of Defense reported that “geraniums” and missiles destroyed the control center of the “Foreign Legion”, as well as two warehouses with ammunition, which will affect the material and management capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:
In the Kupyansky sector there are no special changes – ours are attacking in the Sinkovka area, fighting is going on near Kislovka . The position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area was complicated due to the destruction of the bridge over the Oskol River by Russian aviation. Positional battles continue in Serebryansky Forest .
⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction
Heavy fighting continues in Kleshcheevka , part of the village is under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, part is a gray zone, our people have entrenched themselves in the area of the railway. Russian fighters also counterattacked at Andreevka.
⚫️ Zaporozhye direction
In the Orekhovsky sector, the Russian army attacked militant positions west of Rabotino . At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to advance in the area of Verbovoye and Novoprokopovka . On the Vremevsky ledge, our fighters successfully counterattacked north of Priyutnoye.
“Commander, I think you can make them do better”
“Just keep them stuck, so we can continue to grind them!”
How Ukraine’s strikes on Crimea could lead to its liberation
▫️In the period from 24 to 29 Sep 2023, the RF Armed Forces carried out 9 group strikes by long range precision weapons and UAVs.
▫️The strikes hit ammo depots, military-technical hardware, saboteur training sites, and accommodation points for troops and foreign mercs.
▫️The control centre of the International Legion, 2 large arsenals with weapons and ammo were destroyed, and the supply of foreign made weapons and logistical support for operations in Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions were disrupted.
▫️In Donetsk direction, the enemy continued offensive attempts close to Artyomovsk, Avdeyevka, and Maryinka (DPR) during the week.
▫️Units of the Yug Grouping repelled 31 attacks.
▫️The enemy lost more than 1,760 troops, 40 tanks and other AFVs, and 70 MVs.
▫️Counterbattery warfare neutralised 13 field artillery pieces and 2 Grad MLRS.
▫️Ground attack aircraft destroyed 2 ammo depots near Zvanovka and Zarya (DPR).
▫️To compensate the significant losses during the failed assaults on Kleshcheyevka and Andreyevka (DPR), the AFU command redeployed units of the 33rd, 67th and 110th Mechanized Brigades from other directions.
▫️In Zaporozhye direction, the Russian troops repelled 8 assault group attacks of the 65th Mechanised and 71st Jaeger Brigades close to Verbovoye and Rabotino (Zaporozhye reg) during the week.
▫️In the areas of Malaya Tokmachka, Orekhov, and Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye reg) clusters of enemy troops and hardware of the 21st, 23rd, and 118th Mechanised Brigades were defeated.
▫️The enemy lost more than 330 troops, 32 AFVs, 38 MVs and 25 field artillery pieces.
▫️The AFU Command is currently withdrawing the 47th Mechanized Brigade from the area of Rabotino (Zaporozhye reg) to the rear area because servicemen refuse combat tasks due to the suffered losses.
▫️In South Donetsk direction, Russian units repelled 4 attacks by units of the 127th Territorial Defence Brigade near Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye reg), during the week.
▫️Air strikes and artillery fire struck clusters of AFU troops and hardware.
▫️The enemy lost over 750 troops, 22 AFVs, 37 MVs, and 15 field artillery pieces.
▫️2 SRGs were neutralised near Marfopol (Zaporozhye reg).
▫️In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Group of Forces used air strikes and artillery fire to hit the troops and hardware of the 25th Airborne, 14th, 43rd, and 92nd Mechanized Brigades near Sinkovka, Peschanoye, Cherneshchina, and Novolyubovka (Kharkov reg).
▫️The enemy lost over 210 troops, 5 AFVs, 30 MVs, and 13 field artillery pieces.
▫️4 ammo depots were destroyed near Berestovoye, Kislovka, and Ogurtsovo (Kharkov reg).
▫️In Krasny Liman direction, the 12th Special Forces, 63rd and 67th Mechanized Brigades made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions near Torskoye (DPR) and in Serebryanskoye forestry.
▫️The Tsentr Grouping repulsed 12 enemy attacks.
▫️The AFU lost more than 360 troops, 20 AFVs, 20 MV, and 12 guns during the week.
▫️In Kherson direction, the main efforts were focused on preventing the enemy SRGs from landing on the islands and the left bank of the Dnieper. 3 SRGs were disabled.
▫️Up to 250 troops, 16 AFVs, and 42 MVs were destroyed during the week.
▫️Counterbattery warfare hit 7 field artillery pieces.
▫️The Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed 5 warplanes in a week:
▫️1 Su-25 ground-attack aircraft was shot down near Toretskoye (DPR).
▫️2 Mig-29 fighter jets have been destroyed at the Dolgintsevo Airfield (Dnepropetrovsk reg).
▫️On the night of 29 September, 2 more polish Mig-29 fighter jets, upgraded to use Western missiles were eliminated at the Kulbakino Airfield (Nikolayev reg).
▫️1 Mi-8 helicopter was shot down by defences near Kleshcheyevka (DPR).
▫️Air defences shot down 33 HIMARS and Olkha MLRS projectiles, 1 JDAM guided aerial bomb, and 4 US HARM antiradiation missiles during the week.
▫️185 UAVs were shot down and overwhelmed by EW systems.
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