Automakers could be fined more than €14Bn for European CO2 excess emissions in 2021

With electric vehicles mostly failing to impress buyers, and diesel sales taking a nosedive, European car makers are running short of options to get anywhere near the arbitrary emissions targets imposed on them. Battering a successful industry that so many people depend on for transport seems a strange, not to say crazy, policy in a competitive world.

New analysis by IHS Markit suggests that automakers failing to meet 2021 fleet CO2 emissions compliance for passenger vehicles sold in the European Union (EU) could be fined more than €14 billion (US$16 billion) in 2021, reports Green Car Congress.

Legislators in the European Union (EU) are imposing a new passenger car fleet CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km, to be phased in during 2020, with 100% application in 2021 on Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP).

New passenger car fleets that fail to meet compliance are set for potentially substantial fines in both 2020 and 2021.

The IHS Markit baseline scenario (one of various scenarios) suggests that the EU28 sales-weighted passenger car phased (best 95%) fleet CO2 average in 2020 is likely to reach 102.3 g/km (NEDC).

This includes 4 g/km of CO2 reduction derived from super credits and a further 2 g/km of CO2 reduction from forecasted eco-innovation technology deployment. In 2020, fines paid by OEMs could amount to €11 billion (US$12.7 billion).

Furthermore, with a 2021 target set at 114.9 g/km (as the 95 g/km New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) target is adjusted to an equivalent WLTP value), IHS Markit forecasts that the sales-weighted passenger car fleet CO2 average will reach 122.9 g/km (WLTP).

If this level of excess emission is unable to be curtailed, it could lead to a total of €14 billion in excess emission premiums.

Continued here.