Coming Soon: Something Not Seen for 56 Million Years

“You and I won’t be here in 2159, but that’s only about four generations away,” said Philip Gingerich, a paleoclimate researcher at the University of Michigan and author of the new study in the AGU journal Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. “When you start to think about your children and your grandchildren, and your great-grandchildren, you’re about there.”

Scientists often use the PETM as a benchmark against which to compare modern climate change. But the new study shows we’re on track to meet this benchmark much sooner than previously thought, as the pace of today’s warming far outstrips any climate event that has happened since the extinction of the dinosaurs.

“Given a business-as-usual assumption for the future, the rates of carbon release that are happening today are really unprecedented, even in the context of an event like the PETM,” said Gabriel Bowen, a geophysicist at the University of Utah who was not connected to the new study. “We don’t have much in the way of geologic examples to draw from in understanding how the world responds to that kind of perturbation.”

The exact environmental consequences of PETM-like carbon levels are unclear, but the increased temperatures will likely drive many species to extinction with the lucky ones being able to adapt or migrate, according to Larisa DeSantis, a paleontologist at Vanderbilt University who was not connected to the new study. In addition, it will take thousands of years for the climate system cool down, she said.

“It’s not just about 100 years from now; it’s going to take significant periods of time for that carbon dioxide to make its way back into the Earth’s crust,” DeSantis said. “It’s not a short-term event. We’re really committing ourselves to many thousands of years of a warmer world if we don’t take action quickly.”

Studying past climate change

The PETM was a global warming event that occurred roughly 56 million years ago. Scientists are unsure what caused it, but during the event massive quantities of carbon dioxide were released into Earth’s atmosphere, rapidly spiking global temperatures by 5 to 8 degrees Celsius (9 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit). Average global temperatures during the PETM peaked at about 23 degrees Celsius (73 degrees Fahrenheit), about 7 degrees Celsius (13 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than today’s average.

Scientists think that during this time and the warm period that followed, the poles were ice-free and the Arctic was home to palm trees and crocodiles. It’s not the hottest Earth has ever been, but the PETM was the warmest period since the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.

Scientists can’t pin down exactly how much carbon was injected into the atmosphere during the PETM or exactly how long the event lasted. But their best estimates say between 3,000 and 7,000 gigatons of carbon accumulated over a period of 3,000 to 20,000 years, based on ocean sediment cores that show changes to carbonate minerals laid down during this time.

The massive carbon release and temperature spike drastically altered Earth’s climate, causing a major extinction of organisms in the deep ocean that are a key link in the marine food web. Land animals got smaller and migrated north to cooler climates. Some groups of modern mammals, including primates, appeared for the first time soon after the PETM, but scientists are unsure whether this happened as a direct result of the rapid environmental change.

Comparing past with present

Climate scientists use the PETM as a case study for understanding what environmental changes might happen under current human-caused climate change and when those changes might take effect. But they can only average carbon emissions during the PETM over the whole duration of the event – thousands of years. They don’t know what those emissions rates were like on a yearly basis, so it’s difficult to compare them to the pace of carbon emissions today.

In the new study, Gingerich found a way to mathematically compare modern carbon emissions to PETM emissions on the same time scale. The results showed current carbon emission rates are nine to 10 times higher than those during the PETM.

“To me, it really brought home how rapidly and how great the consequences are of the carbon we’re producing as a people,” Gingerich said.

Projecting current emissions into the future, Gingerich found that if emissions continue to rise, we could be facing another PETM-like event in fewer than five generations. The total carbon accumulated in the atmosphere could hit the lowest estimate of carbon accumulated during the PETM – 3,000 gigatons – in the year 2159. It would hit the maximum estimated emissions – 7,126 gigatons – in 2278, based on Gingerich’s calculations. Humans have emitted roughly 1,500 gigatons of carbon as of 2016.