Another ‘Atlantic currents could collapse this century’ study – but other studies take a different view

The Conversation goes with the headline: ‘Key Atlantic currents could collapse this century, but the risk is missing from almost all national climate plans – new study’. AMOC collapse articles and/or studies appear regularly, but what are they studying? Often it’s climate models fed with so-called emissions scenarios. Since this one claims to be offering advice to governments, here’s some other advice from studies. (1) Journal of Ocean Engineering and Science: There is no real evidence for a diminishing trend of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (2016). (2) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution: New study finds that critical ocean current has not declined in the last 60 years (2025). Governments might want to consider those as well before being advised by anyone how to prepare for an imagined collapse linked to an ’emissions scenario’. Trying to cater for all conceivable climate outcomes in future decades or longer obviously isn’t feasible.
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Icelandic government officials recently met to discuss a dramatic scenario: what if the current that circulates Atlantic waters weakened significantly, or collapsed altogether?

The ocean currents are changing [Talkshop comment – assertion only], with major implications for climate around the world, claims The Conversation.

Yet our new research suggests most governments are not preparing for this possibility [Talkshop comment – there are lots of possibilities]. Of 91 national adaptation plans submitted to the UN climate convention, only two even mention that key Atlantic current, and neither sets out concrete action in response to its possible collapse.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or Amoc, is part of the giant conveyor belt of ocean currents that moves warm surface water northward in the Atlantic and sends colder deep water back south. It plays a critical role in regulating the global climate by redistributing heat around the planet, influencing weather patterns and temperatures far beyond the Atlantic basin.

As the climate warms, the Amoc is weakening [Talkshop comment – evidence?], and could continue to do so throughout this century. While a full collapse, in which major ocean currents completely reorientate, is unlikely before 2100, a recent study projected a 50% weakening of the Amoc by the end of the century under an intermediate emissions scenario.

A collapse would not be unique in geological history. Studies show that the Amoc has undergone dramatic changes before, including a near-complete shutdown around 17,500 years ago, after the coldest period in the last ice age.

A slowdown or collapse would have major implications for temperature and rainfall around the world. In northern Europe, the loss of the heat Amoc transfers northwards from the tropics could lead to winter cold extremes of -20°C in London. [Talkshop comment – pointless speculation].

Full article here.
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Image: A portion of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) [credit: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution @ Wikipedia]