End Of Life On Earth Predicted
Findings published today in the journal Astrobiology reveal the habitable lifetime of planet Earth – based on our distance from the sun and temperatures at which it is possible for the planet to have liquid water.
The research team looked to the stars for inspiration. Using recently discovered planets outside our solar system (exoplanets) as examples, they investigated the potential for these planets to host life.
The research was led by Andrew Rushby, from UEA’s school of Environmental Sciences. He said: “We used the ‘habitable zone’ concept to make these estimates – this is the distance from a planet’s star at which temperatures are conducive to having liquid water on the surface.”
“We used stellar evolution models to estimate the end of a planet’s habitable lifetime by determining when it will no longer be in the habitable zone. We estimate that Earth will cease to be habitable somewhere between 1.75 and 3.25 billion years from now. After this point, Earth will be in the ‘hot zone’ of the sun, with temperatures so high that the seas would evaporate. We would see a catastrophic and terminal extinction event for all life.
“Of course conditions for humans and other complex life will become impossible much sooner – and this is being accelerated by anthropogenic climate change. Humans would be in trouble with even a small increase in temperature, and near the end only microbes in niche environments would be able to endure the heat.
“Looking back a similar amount of time, we know that there was cellular life on earth. We had insects 400 million years ago, dinosaurs 300 million years ago and flowering plants 130 million years ago. Anatomically modern humans have only been around for the last 200,000 years – so you can see it takes a really long time for intelligent life to develop.
“The amount of habitable time on a planet is very important because it tells us about the potential for the evolution of complex life – which is likely to require a longer period of habitable conditions.
“Looking at habitability metrics is useful because it allows us to investigate the potential for other planets to host life, and understand the stage that life may be at elsewhere in the galaxy.
“Of course, much of evolution is down to luck, so this isn’t concrete, but we know that complex, intelligent species like humans could not emerge after only a few million years because it took us 75 per cent of the entire habitable lifetime of this planet to evolve. We think it will probably be a similar story elsewhere.”
Almost 1,000 planets outside our solar system have been identified by astronomers. The research team looked at some of these as examples, and studied the evolving nature of planetary habitability over astronomical and geological time.
“Interestingly, not many other predictions based on the habitable zone alone were available, which is why we decided to work on a method for this. Other scientists have used complex models to make estimates for the Earth alone, but these are not suitable for applying to other planets.
“We compared Earth to eight planets which are currently in their habitable phase, including Mars. We found that planets orbiting smaller mass stars tend to have longer habitable zone lifetimes.
“One of the planets that we applied our model to is Kepler 22b, which has a habitable lifetime of 4.3 to 6.1 billion years. Even more surprising is Gliese 581d which has a massive habitable lifetime of between 42.4 to 54.7 billion years. This planet may be warm and pleasant for 10 times the entire time that our solar system has existed!
“To date, no true Earth analogue planet has been detected. But it is possible that there will be a habitable, Earth-like planet within 10 light-years, which is very close in astronomical terms. However reaching it would take hundreds of thousands of years with our current technology.
“If we ever needed to move to another planet, Mars is probably our best bet. It’s very close and will remain in the habitable zone until the end of the Sun’s lifetime – six billion years from now.”
‘Habitable Zone Lifetimes of Exoplanets around Main Sequence Stars’ by Andrew Rushby, Mark Claire, Hugh Osborne and Andrew Watson is published in the journal Astrobiology on Thursday, September 19, 2013.
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Whistler Blowers, Insiders
nice way to hedge your bets… a 1.5 billion year margin of error.
It would just be so much easier if the writer used the Carl Sagan method, everything large “billions and billions.” It saves the embarrassment of committing to bogus numbers the next article, by some other scientist, disputes.
Actually, and I’m not joking here, our sun is a smaller star, would not supernova. Some years ago a viable theory is that a star the size of our sun would, rather, implode, when the matter collecting at the dense core reaches a mass where gravity sucks the outer sun in, the point that this could happen suddenly, when that critical gravitational threshold is reached. So, there’s no guaranteeing any further life of the sun! Sorry, Carl…
Maybe we are the highest form of life in the univserse. 15 billion year old universe, 4 billion years of life, last million years of life being possible we come along and this upper limit might be true for all life in the universe.
“Maybe we are the highest form of life in the univserse.”
With such thoughts, you must be a very depressed person…
lol, I was thinking the same thing cause boy that would be disappointing
It’s like that beer ad that used to be on TV, all the guys are sitting around a campfire, and one of them hoists his beer and says, “This is as good as it gets!” I figure all of them have committed suicide by now, if they gave this a second thought.
Brought to you by the same people who look at the last 15 years of climate with a trend to decreasing temps including 23,000 record colds in the US last year alone, increasing ice, and tell us the problem is man made global warming.
Believing God, who has a much better batting average than the vast majority of man, as it were, I’ll bet the writer of this article $10 the earth is still here, albeit different, but still here 3.25 billion years from now, and with a very advanced civilization. Also, bet it never occurred to the writer that there would be no need of a sun anymore.
Given the vast period of time this bet, I would expect us to adjust for inflation, hopefully in 3.25 billion years there will be quadrillion dollars denominated bills. Oh! I keep forgetting! Ben Bernanke is working on that in the short term.
Ecclesiastes 1:4 One generation passes away, and another generation comes; but the earth abides forever.
Psalm 104:5 He established the earth upon its foundations, so that it will not totter forever and ever.
Of the New Jerusalem on earth, in eternity:
Revelation 22:5 There shall be no night there: they need no lamp nor light of the sun, for the Lord God gives them light. And they shall reign forever and ever.
You forgot Revelation 21:1
“Then I saw “a new heaven and a new earth,” for the first heaven and the first earth had passed away, and there was no longer any sea.”
Care to explain how that fits into your eternal earth theory?
Is there something, plain as your nose, unclear here? Repeat: “but the earth abides forever.” I forgot nothing. This is not my theory, rather a clear statement in the word of God. A new heaven and new earth are, nonetheless, heaven and earth. You give your home a makeover, it’s still your home, though it may not even have the same rooms, though you may even raze the entire old home from its foundation, still it is your home, a new home, home exists, though the old arrangement is no more. Seems you like to play with words or something. My only issues are those that claim life will end on earth, or that the earth comes to an end.
We have about 1800 more years.
http://www.barry.warmkessel.com/SynopsisComet.html#7
COULD THEY BE CORRECT?
Then Mankind is gone forever as we know it.
http://www.barry.warmkessel.com/SynopsisComet.html#4
DOES ANYONE IMPORTANT THINK THIS IS A PROBLEM?
The Bible is full of warnings of comet or asteroid impacts, especially from Christ as found in the New Testament. Clear text Bible predictions speculating on impacts have been interpreted as follows:
“Starting at the end and work forwards, the last Cataclysmic event is when the Earth is renovated by fire. It is discussed in 2 Peter 3:5-13 and Revelation 20:7-15. The Earth is turned into a sea of fire and lava. There are no longer any oceans. This event could be cause by a large impactor 100- 200 miles in diameter.
Before that happens there will be a millennium, a thousand years, of peace. Revelation 20:1-6 – God made a promise to the Jewish people, during this time he will begin to fulfill it. Before that there is a Great Tribulation. This event is discussed in Matthew 24:21, Revelation 8:5-13, Revelation 6:12-17, Revelation 16:17-21 and Revelation 18:8-10,21 to name a few. The damage falls in line with the damage that would be created from an impactor in the 2-3 mile diameter range.
When the Comet flies!
Why everything is predictable by some people?
Why some people can see the future?
What does it means?
It means that your soul, coming to this life signed agreement to specific destiny of that life.
Practically under hypnosis you can tell all about your past 2-3 life. (confirmed from credible source)
“Everything is predetermined by the will of the Creator”
So if you still have thought that you are the master of your life, make a plan for something what you want to do, and later you will be convinced that there is a lot of factors that not depends on you only.
Last sign for end of the world will be when the moon splits to the parts.
Life will go on somewhere else, don’t forget that your soul is energy. E=mc2 means everything is energy.
Everybody has it’s own way:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1awxNDK1w0
So…they are basing their finding on our distance from the sun and temperatures at which it is possible for the planet to have liquid water? Did they also equate Fukushima and the radiation which is likely to kill off a lot of things on this Earth within just 20 years?
yes it’s in the bible, everyone knows it and nobody needs empty post with nonsense words in it.
Good one!!!
And then again, There’s Velikovsky’s ‘electric universe’ model – which is proving more correct as time goes by. Velikovsky, and later Wallace Thornhill and his colleagues, argue that as the universe is powered by a constant exchange of energy, it’s impossible to predict the age of anything other than planetary bodies we can take direct samples from. What we can observe is the fact our solar system is heating up, and it is now fairly certain that earth is heating from within. The only reasonable explanation is the electric universe model. I had the very great privilege of meeting Sir Fred Hoyle and discussing his steady state model, which was foundationed on endless renewal, not the ‘big bang’, so dear to the hearts of religious fundamentalists.