Buy Low Candidates: Is Now The Time To Target Carlos Gonzalez Or Gregory Polanco?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We never want to give up on a big name investment that we made on our draft, but sometimes it’s the most prudent decision.  Just because you paid a hefty price doesn’t mean that the player in question is a lock to turn things around.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at two players that have disappointed over the first few months of the season:

Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies – Outfielder
He finished 2015 on an unbelievable hot streak and carried that success into the first half of 2016 (.318 with 19 HR).  Since then things have regressed, significantly, and it’s fair to start wondering if a rebound is coming or not:

• Second Half ’16 – .270 with 6 HR, 46 RBI, 29 R, 0 SB
• First Half ’17 – .234 with 4 HR, 17 RBI, 28 R, 1 SB

His SwStr% remains elevated (14.2%), but that hasn’t been uncommon (13.1% for his career) so it isn’t a red flag.  His groundball rate is also elevated, but not significantly (49.0% vs. 45.5% for his career).  That doesn’t mean that he’s a lock to improve, as his struggles are two-fold:

• Hard% – 29.9%
• HR/FB – 8.3% (18.8% for his career)

The power has been down for an extended period (8.8% HR/FB in the second half last season), and while we’d expect him to improve he is 31-years old and has battled a slew of injuries.  That makes it hardly a given.  The Hard% isn’t as discouraging and he should be able to improve, but exactly how far remains to be seen.  That said, if the power isn’t going to be significant and he also doesn’t bring speed is there a reason to invest?

While we wouldn’t give up on him, also know what you are getting if you own him (or are looking to buy low).  He’s not likely going to be the player he once was, and therefore he’s simply not an ideal target.

Verdict – Deny ‘Em

Gregory Polanco – Pittsburgh Pirates – Outfielder
Injuries have been the biggest issue for Polanco, and you have to wonder if the constant in and out of the lineup has caused some issues at the plate.  He’s chasing far too many pitches (35.3% O-Swing%), which hasn’t generally been the case (30.7% for his career), and he’s seen his swinging strikes rise against both breaking balls (15.43% Whiff%) and offspeed pitches (12.00% Whiff%).  The hope should be that as he settles in and stays healthy, there will be improvements as he goes.

He also has seen his groundball rate rise significantly from a year ago (38.8% to 50.0%) and his HR/FB  regress (14.4% to 8.3%).  Again those two things can be tied to his comfort level, as well as his struggles against any pitch but hard pitches (BAA/SLG):

• Changeup – .158/.263
• Slider – .233/.500
• Curveball – .182/.182

If he can stay healthy we’d expect a dramatic improvement, as he should find his footing at the plate.  Don’t lose hope, because the production should be there.

Verdict – Buy ‘Em

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

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