Shining Star

The Ravens blueprint for success is well established and it’s now all about Lamar carrying the load. The blueprint reads: protect the football; manage field position; control the clock; wear down opponents with the run; get a lead and make opponents one-dimensional. But executing this plan has its challenges, particularly with a running game that goes nowhere.

Have Greg Roman’s running concepts suddenly gone obsolete? Are they predictable? Have the players failed to execute? Do they have the right personnel on the field? Is the issue a combination of all the above?

All fair questions, the answers to which aren’t clear. What is clear – the Ravens have a problem.

Take for example this running play to Justice Hill. The blocking is there. Solid play call. Big opening (rare in this game) but instead of planting his left foot and turning upfield, Hill runs as if he needs to get out of bounds to kill the clock.

This one should have been a house call!

BRO WHERE you GOING ? pic.twitter.com/G7rEYPPBqC

— Ivan Evans (@CoachEvans9) September 20, 2022

The focal point of the team’s rushing attack is of course Lamar Jackson. His skillset as a runner is undeniable and opponents’ game plans start and stop with ways to mitigate Lamar’s effectiveness on the ground. And that focus can have its benefits via the well-designed RPO’s that are integral to the offense. But those RPO’s and the delicate balance of the mesh point lack polish, at least for now. They lack suddenness due to the fact that the team’s primary ball carriers, Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake haven’t established that rapport with Lamar at the mesh. Consequently, the more methodical approach slows things down a tick, tilting the advantage towards the defense.It’s a problem that needs fixing (as evidenced by the clip below) and the hope is that Davis and Drake can get it right or that the future returns of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards will give the ground attack a needed lift. Something has to change. If not, the Ravens inability to chew up game clock with a lead will be at risk, like it was against Miami.

Late in the 4Q…

Project Pat is NOT a happy camper. pic.twitter.com/bT4hTbUDx7

— Spencer N. Schultz (@ravens4dummies) September 21, 2022

4th-and-1

The Ravens decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Dolphins 40 yard line during the game’s waning moments, has been questioned. The analytics suggest that the Ravens made the right choice. But what those analytics fail to consider is that the Ravens were getting destroyed in short-yardage situations at the line of scrimmage all afternoon. They didn’t want to risk an incomplete pass on said 4th-and-1 which would stop the clock, so running the football was preferred. And if that’s the case, given the way the game played out, pinning the Dolphins deep in their own territory or a Justin Tucker FGA might have been the better options.

Of course such things are clearer with the benefit of hindsight, but the point here is that the analytics fail to take into consideration the flow of a specific game. And in this one, they would have told a different story. The Dolphins had answers for the Ravens running game – all afternoon. And that should have been more persuasive than analytics compiled from mutually exclusive games.

Not including the final Hail Mary, the Ravens ran 10 plays where they needed one yard for a first down or touchdown. They converted three of them.

— Luke Jones (@BaltimoreLuke) September 18, 2022

4th Quarter Meltdowns

The Ravens 4th quarter struggles to get off the field when on defense are nothing new. For too many years as of late, we’ve watched the defense struggle to make a stop during pivotal moments at the end of games. It happened with Dean Pees, it happened with Wink Martindale and now it is happening with Mike Macdonald.

To help in this regard the Ravens have invested heavily in their secondary. As a percentage of the 2022 adjusted cap, Baltimore invests in its secondary more than any other team (20.09%), according to Spotrac. Yet through two games, the Ravens are far and away the worst pass defense in the NFL – a dubious distinction they also held in 2021.

Conversely, the Ravens are 31st in the league in spending on Edge Rushers with a total of 5.14% of their adjusted 2022 cap invested in that defensive resource.

Pass rush has been an undeniable problem for the Ravens for a few seasons, yet it seems to be relatively ignored each offseason.

Some teams build their pass defense from the front to the back. The Ravens obviously do it the opposite way. Perhaps the answer is to proportionally spread the cap dollars because let’s face it, unless teams disrupt the quarterback, even the most pedestrian of receivers will eventually get open. That 32nd rank suggests as much.

Since the start of the 2021 season, the Ravens defense has given up the most passing yards in the fourth quarter in the NFL (1,681) and has totaled the fourth-fewest quarterback hits in the fourth quarter (36)

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) September 19, 2022

What Tua did was great, but we need to put these Ravens in context.

Most 400-yd passing games allowed since 2021:
1. Ravens – 5
2. 13 other teams – 1 (tied)

And they’ve let Carr, Wentz, Burrow (2x) do it too. Not exactly Ben/Brady/Peyton/Brees.

— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) September 19, 2022

Communication Breakdown

With a 21-point 4th quarter lead, Macdonald’s message to his troops had to have been, “Don’t let them score quickly!” You don’t have to be a time of possession analyst to know that when a team scores 28 points in a single quarter that they scored quickly. This is pretty basic, elementary stuff.

Kyle Hamilton was at the root of the confusion in the secondary. But at what point do we stop seeing this state of confusion in the Ravens defensive backfield? When does the communication actually improve? The Ravens led the league in explosive plays allowed in 2021 and so far in 2022, they are doing their best to retain the unflattering title.

“[The breakdowns] were just blown coverages, basically, in the sense of we didn’t play the technique right on the post to our defensive left,” Harbaugh said. “You have to stay on top of that as a corner; you have to stay on top of that as a safety. It’s three deep coverage; those guys know that. Then the other one was we didn’t have anybody in the deep half. That was a miscommunication if you want to call it that, and the deep half player didn’t realize he was a deep half player and he needs to get back there. So, those are mistakes.”

Communication breakdown, it’s always the same. At least it seems that way with the Ravens.

[Related Article: Secondary a Primary Concern]

Nick of Time

There’s no denying that when healthy, Nick Boyle was an integral part of the success in the Ravens running game. And while he’s passed the team’s conditioning test and appears to be good to go, Boyle has been a healthy scratch for both of the scheduled games so far this season. From what I’m hearing, the untold story is that Nick just isn’t the same player and it’s unlikely that he will be. His injury was a devastating one and despite the excellent shape that he’s in, the shape of that knee and its wear and tear and recovery, inhibits his ability to be that vital cog in Roman’s rushing attack that he once was. That doesn’t mean that Nick still can’t contribute at some point. But don’t be surprised if he isn’t a semi-regular feature on the inactive list.

On The Bright Side

The first goal of any NFL team is to win their division and the Ravens, despite the kick in the crotch setback this past Sunday, still control their own destiny as it relates to the AFC North.

The Browns and Steelers face off on Thursday night so barring a tie, one will sit at (1-2). The Bengals travel to the Meadowlands to face the Jets as 5 point favorites. Meanwhile the Ravens travel to Foxboro where they’ve never won a regular season game, but that fact notwithstanding, Baltimore is a 3 point favorite. A win on Sunday will take away the bitterness of the Miami debacle and reset the season. One game does not make a season. Let’s not forget that during the 2000 season the Ravens went 21 quarters without a touchdown and they had a 3-game losing streak to drop to (5-4) during which they averaged 5 points per game. FIVE POINTS! And then in 2012, the Ravens lost 3 straight games in December while giving up 29.3 points per game.

Few seasons are devoid of adversity. The way teams handle it, will define them.

The full story of the Ravens 2022 season has yet to be told.

Let’s move on to chapter 3, shall we?

From Training Camp to Sundays

It’s oftentimes difficult for the untrained eye to detect progress in players given the way teams gently treat training camp and the preseason. There’s just not a big enough sample size to go on. But that wasn’t true of Rashod Bateman and Lamar Jackson.

Bateman’s skillset is undeniable and throughout training camp he had the look of a special player developing right before us. His suddenness was exemplary. The footwork along the boundary like that of a tap dancer. He snatched balls out of the air and in-stride, all part of an effort to produce YAC. But the rub, out least from those on the outside looking in, was that Bateman couldn’t take the top off a defense the way Marquise Brown did.

I beg to differ.

This clip tells you all you need to know and Rashod’s success on this play comes at the expense of one of the league’s top corners (who the Ravens tried to trade for last season), Xavien Howard.

Rashod Bateman’s release vs Xavien Howard
pic.twitter.com/0w4Rs56xLA

— PFF (@PFF) September 18, 2022

Rashod Bateman’s fastest speed as a ball carrier, per @NextGenStats tracking, in 14 Ravens games: 21.48 mph

Hollywood Brown’s fastest speed in 46 Ravens games: 21.3 mph
pic.twitter.com/BhWiF1x721

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) September 19, 2022

As for Lamar, his throwing velocity, accuracy and spinning were all markedly improved during training camp and fortunately for the Ravens, that has carried over to the regular season. With improved pass protection, greater pocket awareness and an impressive array of pass catchers, Lamar is poised for a great season. And he just might have to carry the entire offense until the running game and defense get their respective acts together.

And just maybe that should be the plan, for now.

.@Ravens @Lj_era8 despite the loss was the best football player on the field Sunday….Again. He might lead this league in passing this season the way he is throwing the ball. #ravensflock #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/Hs0Xd7cFuR

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 21, 2022

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