Chicago Cubs staring down brutal turn of pitching events ahead of playoff chase

What do the Chicago Cubs do if Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga continue on their downward trajectory? That’s a big question facing the North Siders as they work their way towards a playoff run.

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Boyd, who’s had two stints on the IL this season and has been limited to just 91 total innings pitched, has a 6.12 ERA through his four starts in August and was lit up on Friday against the Mariners.

Imanaga, meanwhile, is posting a 5.68 ERA over his last three starts and got the early hook on Sunday versus the Mariners after just two struggle-heavy innings.

The Cubs rotation has been a roller coaster all season. Initially lauded for its depth, injuries removed key pieces and created concerns about whether there’d even be enough starters to have a 5-man rotation. Starters Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes were then acquired at the trade deadline and, paired with the return of Edward Cabrera, the rotation was again lauded for its depth.

However, Cabrera got battered in his first outing back from the IL and was placed right back on the IL and, now, Boyd and Imanaga are on an extended run of poor performances.

Matthew Boyd’s downward trajectory

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Boyd’s fall, as the de facto ace of the staff, is especially troubling.

Per Alex Patt from right here at ChiCity Sports:

“He sports a 4.68 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. That is well off the 3.65 FIP and 1.09 WHIP marks from his All Star 2025 campaign. His xERA (expected ERA) is way up at 5.01 right now; compare that to 3.75 last year.

What really stands out is the home runs. While Boyd’s flyball rate is down, 39.3% this year vs. 44.9% last year, his HR/9 has jumped from 0.95 to 1.38. That’s 14 homers in 91 innings this year vs. 19 homers in 179.2 innings all of last year. Not surprising that more flyballs are being pulled this year (22.9%) vs. last year (17.7%) based on those home run totals.”

And as Evan Altman of Cubs Insider pointed out:

“…They’ll have a puncher’s chance to make some noise. As we saw Friday night, however, their glass jaw could make that knockout power irrelevant. Matthew Boyd had been (and may still be) the presumed No. 1 starter, but he’s given up at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts.

That includes eight home runs with just 11 strikeouts and nine walks over 25 innings. Boyd’s fastball has been particularly bad during that stretch, with a -2.5 run value. Statcast has his heater at -5 runs on the season, putting him in the 17th percentile. He generated 10 runs of value to fall in the 86th percentile last season. Even with the slider and curve being much better, his fastball and middling changeup have dragged him down.”

Hoping for the best

Now, when you throw in the fact that Gausman has also not been pitching all that well (6.19 ERA as a Cub through three starts), some real concerns start bubbling up.

What will the Cubs’ four-man postseason rotation look like? At this point, they have little choice but to go with the obvious picks—Boyd, Gausman, Holmes, Imanaga—and just hope for the best. They also may want to have swingmen Colin Rea, Javier Assad, and David Peterson ready to go at the drop of a hat, just in case.

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