Trump, Not Cruz, Picking Up Carson Defections?

The general consensus, and one to which I subscribed, was that Senator Ted Cruz would pick up the evangelical support of Ben Carson as the doctor’s campaign declined. That is not, however, what the polls are telling us. I was astonished to look at the trends in the latest Georgia Primary poll, released by WSBTV, which shows that Doctor Carson dropped from 26% (in first place in Georgia in November according to SMN) to 6.7% in December. This remarkable drop made me confident that the next thing I’d see was a remarkable rise in Senator Ted Cruz’s numbers. My expectations could not have been more wrong.

In that same time period, wherein Carson dropped 20 points, Donald Trump rose from 24 to 43%, himself gaining 19 points. It does not appear that Cruz or Rubio gained anything from Carson’s furious decline in Georgia. This tells me two things.

First, it is clear that residents in Georgia have no intention of nominating a Washington insider. Anyone viewed as “establishment” is dead on arrival. Secondly, that Carson supporters may not be that different from Trump supporters, in that they aren’t voting on their religious or conservative views, but rather out of utter dissatisfaction with the Republican Leadership. Therefore, the assumption that Carson’s biggest voting block, being evangelicals, would make Senator Cruz their second choice, could be flat out incorrect.

That said, both of these polls are open to criticism and more than likely not an indication of how these States will look come SEC Primary time, but that does not mean that we shouldn’t evaluate them or learn what there is to learn.

While I do not believe Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee for President, he has certainly uprooted everything we thought we knew about politics in the United States. Whether you believe Donald is the answer, or just another incredibly dangerous force, one thing is for certain – when Donald Trump got in the race, everything changed.