Ease In Our Time
By Micael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank
Yesterday saw the BOJ hike rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995, and the RBA hold at 4.35%, with some chatter of the next move being down, not up, despite inflation running way above 2%. Today it’s the turn of new Fed Chair Warsh who, like the other central banks, has to deal with a geopolitical backdrop which may or may not allow for any monetary policy easing.
There, the text of the 14-point US-Iran MoU has been leaked ahead of its Swiss signing ceremony on Friday: ironically, it says “Ease in our time.” It allows Iran to immediately sell oil again, including the waiver of all banking and transport sanctions (though US legislation may prove an obstacle re: IRGC terror designation). It also includes the private sector $300bn investment fund for Iran, which Reuters claims has already been half committed.
What does this imply? It’s either a giant TACO that markets look past the full implications of to embrace; or a can-kick until the midterms (after which what?); or the Middle Eastern dish maqluba –not muqlaba (‘confrontation’)– layers of rice, veggies, and meat prepared one way up, then flipped when served. In other words, a behind-the-scenes-and-rhetoric normalisation from Iran. Ultimately, the proof of that dish is in the eating, and there are still many points to choke on.
NBC reports Iran has continued to fire multiple drones toward ships in Hormuz since the MoU was agreed, with the US shooting them down.
Elsewhere, the US is suggesting a ‘trusted partner’ AI scheme for its allies, extending what is currently US-only technology, a significant carrot. The European Parliament cleared the way for the EU-US trade deal – and Brussels is gearing up for a trade war with Beijing. Indeed, even as European discourse focuses on the US, it’s not hard to see the contrasting contours of US-EU cooperation in the Middle East and against China. Will it be transatlantic maqluba or muqlaba?
The US is also reaching out to Kazakhstan, offering to build local telecoms infrastructure. Central Asia looks increasingly contested space between Russia, the US, and China. And can Trump rebuild bridges with Indian PM Modi at the G7?
So much is in flux beyond oil, now back below $80 in time for the mid-terms. On which note, yes, ‘markets were right’ there – but to think it was market forces that kept market pricing of oil lower than feared until now is naïve: it was aggressive economic statecraft. If we see more Middle East war ahead, much more statecraft will be required.
On that broader flux, that the FBI just arrested five people for an alleged plot to attack Trump’s White House lawn 80th birthday UFC event with explosives-laden drones and guns speaks to the zeitgeist.
So does the Wall Street Journal reporting that ‘A $40m Gold Heist Risks Exposing CIA’s Top-Secret Spy Programs’; as the Financial Times notes central banks are repatriating gold as global insecurity rises rather than storing bullion in other countries; and the Nikkei Asia shares that central banks expect their gold reserves to continue to rise as de-dollarization continues, with 84% of related survey respondents seeing such holdings increasing in the next five years.
And against that backdrop, the FT also notes that ‘The world is more dangerous. Why is risk cheaper?’, underlining that capital is piling into insurance because of high returns and low volatility (against our current backdrop!) which leaves some worried about mispricing.
Traditionally, they don’t have to worry because central banks are there to save the day. But right now, those knights in shining armour have a lot of other things to worry about: like swords and armour. Does that still allow them to just “ease in our time”?
Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 – 10:20
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2026/06/17/ease-in-our-time/
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