Fool Me Once? Shame On You. Fool Me 39 Times…?

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

After several days of strikes against Iran, and several morning announcements that strikes were set to continue, Trump announced via 103 Days, 38 Peace Deals, yesterday’s announcement would constitute the 39th peace deal declared since the onset of the war. Speaking of, the report highlights the “massive drop in Chinese imports,” leading to a downward adjustment of Rabobank’s brent crude oil forecasts, now projecting $103/bbl in Q3 of this year.

WATCH: CNN montage of Trump saying he’s close to a deal with Iran. He’s made the claim 39 times since the war began.pic.twitter.com/o2j782A2jF

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 12, 2026

But back to the peace deal, it should be noted that the provided list of “all parties involved” does not include one party who some would argue is pretty heavily involved…Iran. Perhaps Iran was counted in the “and others” part of the list, but this wouldn’t be the first time the US proposed a deal it thinks Iran can’t refuse, just for Iran to either outright refuse it, or announce that it never received such a peace deal in the first place. It should also be noted that some of the “involved parties” who were listed, like Pakistan, have confirmed that they had not been informed of any agreement at the time the peace deal was initially announced.

That doesn’t mean that this peace deal is for certain another empty announcement. Indeed, economists often assume things turn out similar to precedent, of course, until they don’t. But the market’s reaction to the deal coupled with the major IPO events today may add further credence to our view that defense-related rhetoric these days has just as much to do with financial markets as they do with geopolitics.

The S&P 500 had sunk around 4.4% from its recent high of $7,610 to $7,277. The peace deal announcement, however, sparked a sharp sell-off in brent crude oil of $3, breaking to its lowest level since April. The move in oil dragged interest rates down—with the 10 year down more than 8bp to trade below 4.45% again—and pulled stocks back up, fueling an almost 1.7% upwards jump in the S&P and a 3.5% jump in the NASDAQ. Coincidentally, SpaceX’s IPO, which has been said to “X that “any damage [Iran] inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts. Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.” This draws attention to one of the key contentions between the US and Iran when it comes to striking a deal, in that Iran wants USD 12 billion of Iranian funds unfrozen if an interim deal is achieved, which the US is reluctant to accept, remembering when the Obama Administration unfroze around USD 100 billion as part of the JCPOA in 2015, the consequences of which the US may or may not be dealing with today.

But decision statement cites that “the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.” Our ECB whisperer, Bas van Geffen, is Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 – 09:45

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