How Resilient?

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

A cargo ship was hit by an unknown object near the coast of Oman yesterday. The vessel took some damage, but the company reported that “crew, vessel, and cargo are all safe.”

The ship has since left the strait, and tankers continue to transit. Still, these attacks force a rethink about the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, just as shipping from the Gulf region was starting to pick up again. The International Maritime Organization temporarily halted its evacuation plan for ships leaving the Gulf, and several tankers changed course – possibly after instructions from Iran.

US officials stated the ship had been struck by an Iranian drone. And one of these officials said the hit was likely deliberate: the drone had manoeuvred to the side of the ship before it attacked. Plus, the incident happened just hours after the IRGC had warned ships to only use the routes that Iran had approved. Vessels that do not are “not covered by the safe passage guarantee.”

That could of course be coincidence. However, if Iran was indeed behind the attack, the IRGC warning was perhaps not out of concerns that there might still be mines in those shipping lanes, but because there aren’t. That is, perhaps, ships were exiting at updated our scenarios. We now expect talks to continue – possibly for longer than the 60 days that were originally agreed to in the MOU. However, ultimately the set of outcomes is limited to Iran or the US getting the better deal, or new tensions if neither side is willing to accept defeat. We assume the latter outcome as our base case failing a shift in Iranian deliverables on tolls, uranium, and Hezbollah. However, it is a close call and the timing is near-impossible to predict.

Whilst not of “catastrophic” proportions yet, the Iran war is clearly starting to show in US economic data. US PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May, in line with expectations. Underlying inflation has been accelerating since late last year, and that trend was kept intact.

Core inflation came in at 3.4%, which is the fastest pace in 2.5 years’ time. In the Powell-era, this used to be the Fed’s favourite inflation indicator. Warsh’s favourite metric gives the Fed a little more respite, perhaps. The trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate, ticked up to 2.4%, a level it has been hovering around since the turn of the year. But the key driver behind accelerating core inflation were services prices, notably in financial services, insurance, and transportation services. Pressure from tariff hikes has continued to build gradually as well. So, overall, stickiness seems to have broadened somewhat.

Despite these higher prices, US consumers continue to spend. Real personal spending increased by 0.3% m/m, which was a little better than expected – however that does come on the back of a slight downward revision of the April data.

Another potential risk to consumer spending is the shifting sentiment about AI and tech stocks. Fresh doubts about the AI rally left the Kospi index 7% lower on the week, after a rollercoaster ride that triggered circuit breakers on the way down. The mood soured on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, Micron’s bumper earnings report reassured investors somewhat. But tech stocks are leading the decline again today.

The Korean index indicates growing caution about AI and tech. That is not limited to the Korean index, but global markets are still more composed. European equities are broadly opening in the red – albeit much less dramatically than the Kospi’s 5.8% loss on the day, or the 4.2% decline in the Japanese Nikkei.

These doubts about the sector are despite -or because of?- European plans to become digitally sovereign. Earlier this month, the European Commission adopted a “FT reports that the car industry could derail the agreement – or may at least put a strain on negotiations.

The US has effectively banned Chinese cars, and the US automobile industry will pressure President Trump to uphold that ban. However, Canada and particularly Mexico have embraced Chinese cars. The Canadian minister of Industry has recently met with Chinese carmakers to explore investments in Canadian production capacity. That may be incompatible with US policy, and review of the USMCA. At the same time, any new trade deal may become a bit less attractive to Canada if Chinese investments make the Canadian auto industry less dependent on the traditional North American supply chain.