Exelon “High Probability” Data Center Load Falls 40%

By Ethan Howland, senior reporter at UtilityDive

Exelon’s “high probability” data center load fell nearly 40%, to about 11 GW, in the second quarter from 18 GW at the end of last year, the Chicago-based utility company said Thursday.

The decline comes as Exelon utilities have been entering into “transmission security agreements” with potential data center customers, it said. The TSAs include provisions designed to protect existing ratepayers from data center-related costs such as credit obligations, committed revenue contributions and shortfall payments.

“What this update reflects is [that] we now weed out speculative projects, and it gives us proactive insight into what is real,” Jeanne Jones, Exelon CFO, said during an earnings conference call with equity analysts.

As part of the weedout of data center projects, Exelon’s Commonwealth Edison subsidiary on July 24 told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission it had canceled a previously approved TSA with PowerHouse Hillwood Holding. Key information about the project related to the TSA was redacted in ComEd’s original application at FERC. However, Hillwood and PowerHouse Data Centers have been planning a 1.8-GW, $20 billion data center in Joliet, Illinois.

The current high-probability projects — about 9 GW in ComEd’s territory in northern Illinois and 2 GW in Mid-Atlantic states — include about 4 GW of data center load with signed TSAs that have posted $1 billion in collateral, according to Jones.

Exelon’s data center interconnection pipeline — potential projects that utilities are studying or are about to study — fell to about 25 GW in the second quarter from about 43 GW disclosed during a May earnings conference call.

By the numbers: Exelon Q2

• 17.6 GWh: PECO Energy electric sales for the first half of 2026, down 0.7% — and down 2.1% on a weather-adjusted basis — from a year ago.
• 500 MW: The size of a battery storage project Exelon’s Atlantic City Electric plans to build and own in New Jersey.
• $12B to $17B: The amount of potential transmission projects not included in Exelon’s nearly $42 billion, four-year capital expenditure plan.
• $396M: Second-quarter income, up about 1% from the year-ago period.

Exelon is continuing to push for utility-owned generation as part of an “all-of-the-above” approach to address capacity needs in the PJM Interconnection market, which includes 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern states and the District of Columbia.

PJM’s capacity auction held this summer cleared at a price cap for the third time in a row, missed a reliability target by 6.8 GW and attracted only 525 MW in new generation.

“Even at the highest allowed price, the market is not attracting the level of new supply the system needs,” Calvin Butler, Exelon president and CEO, said during the earnings call.

If PJM’s current $325/MW-day capacity auction price cap is lifted as planned after its next auction, set to be held in December, the average residential customer of Exelon’s Atlantic City Electric subsidiary in New Jersey could see monthly bill increases ranging from $14.70 to $23.64, the utility told the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities last week.

In an effort to address some of those challenges in PJM, ACE, working with Invenergy, on July 23 proposed building and owning a 500-MW, four-hour battery storage system in Pittsgrove, New Jersey.

ACE plans to offer the battery into PJM’s markets starting in late 2030, when the project is expected to be online, according to the utility’s application at the BPU. It could help ACE meet growing peak demand and wouldn’t affect customer bills until 2035 at the soonest, according to the utility.

ACE contends that owning the storage project wouldn’t violate New Jersey’s restructuring laws for utilities, which bar them from owning generation.

The project is expected to cost about $1 billion, according to Jones. ACE is seeking a 9.6% ROE for the project, with the potential for a higher return if the project meets performance benchmarks, according to its application. The utility said its customers will receive $1.36 in benefits for every $1 spent on the project. If the BPU follows ACE’s proposed schedule, a decision could be reached in February.

Baltimore Gas and Electric and Potomac Electric Power Co., both Exelon subsidiaries, are pursuing battery storage projects in Maryland, Jones noted. The projects under review by the Maryland Public Service Commission total 150 MW, according to Exelon.

Exelon utilities are also advancing energy efficiency projects and virtual power plants, according to Butler. BGE and Pepco have nearly 175 MW of approved VPP capacity in Maryland and Commonwealth Edison has a program expected to take effect in March.