New Home Sales Collapsed In July As Consumer Confidence Hit 7-Month Lows

The Conference Board’s measure of Americans’ Consumer Confidence fell from a revised-lower 90.2 to 89.4 in August (below the 90.2 exp) – the lowest since January.

Interestingly, under the hood, we saw Expectations plunge to January lows while Present Situation spiked from 5 year lows…

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence across all age groups trended down slightly, remaining highest among consumers under 35.

By income, confidence was mixed, but generally higher-income groups were more optimistic.

By generation, confidence for Gen Z remained the highest, followed closely by Millennials on a six-month moving average basis. The three oldest generations—Generation X, Baby Boomer, and Silent Generation—trailed in confidence by a wider margin.

By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Republicans softened while Democrats were somewhat more positive in August.

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy were slightly more pessimistic in August.

References to prices in general—and oil and gas specifically—remain elevated. Comments about war/conflict, food/groceries, trade, and jobs rose in August. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were slightly more elevated in August. Most consumers—61.3%—still anticipated higher interest rates over the next 12 months, down moderately from 62% in July. Meanwhile, consumers still expected higher stock prices a year from now.

On a six-month moving average basis, auto purchasing expectations remained strong. Homebuying expectations declined slightly for the month but maintained an upward trend after slumping to decade-lows in early 2024. 

Perhaps reflective of the weak confidence (especially ‘Expectations’), new home sales plunged 10.5% MoM in August (after an upwardly revised +7.6% bounce in July). That dragged new home sales down 6.3% YoY…

Total new home sales SAAR dropped back to 607k – basically flat since 2016…

Sales have fallen in three of the last four months, adding to evidence of a housing market burdened by elevated finance costs and prices.

However, on the potential bright side for homebuyers and affordability, median new home prices fell to a five-year low…

Interestingly, while median new home price just dropped to a 5 year low, the average new home price hasn’t budged as ultra high end homes keep lifting the average…

While builders have had some success bolstering demand with free upgrades, mortgage rate buydowns and price reductions, the entry-level market remains affordability-constrained, and likely stays there until consumer confidence rebounds (which is highly dependent on the price of gas, among other things).