UAE Cuts Ties As Iran Warns Gulf States Against Helping Washington; Kpler Says US Navy Gaining Ground In Hormuz

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is visiting Baghdad while at the same time US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spoken UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan to discuss the Hormuz situation and security. Except of course the two sides aren’t talking with each other.

President Trump has made clear that no talks are on, and that none are scheduled, as he’s been floating a ‘new’ strategy to ‘strangle’ the Iranian economy over the long term. CNN reported Tuesday that White House officials have recently communicated that they are shifting their strategy — going from “hammer Iran ASAP” to “strangle them” over time.

As for Ghalibaf, he blasted War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday, mocking this new disengagement strategy, given the US has already failed to bring Tehran to its knees.

“Americans think squeezing Iran harder will win concessions that were never part of the agreement,” Ghalibaf wrote in a post on X. “Bessent and Hegseth are way out of their league,” Ghalibaf added while referring to them as the “clown crew.” He stated:

Stop waiting for the clown crew to pull a rabbit out of their hat and clean up the mess you made.

After declaring a new ‘offensive’ military posture in response to the crisis, Iran is showing no signs of backing off the confrontation with the US in the region. On Wednesday its armed forces warned Gulf countries against hosting or assisting American forces, saying it would be tantamount to joining the war on the US side.

“We wish to warn that any assistance or facilitation provided to the aggressor U.S. military amounts to participation in the U.S. military operation,” armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi said.

“It seems unlikely that such a large number of military aircraft, particularly refueling aircraft could be present at regional bases without knowledge of host countries,” the official continued as cited in Mehr news agency.

It’s not known how many refueling tankers or else large warplanes are still positioned in the Gulf, but certainly the bulk of regional refueling aircraft operated by the US Air Force are currently concentrated at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion international airport – and has been subject of a lot of media attention.

And in another significant escalation that effectively torpedoes any remaining illusions of hoped-for cross-Gulf detente, the United Arab Emirates has announced Wednesday a complete and immediate severance of all economic ties with Tehran. The move comes on the heels of what UAE officials claim was a barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles targeted directly at Emirati territory.

Tehran had quickly denied it had fired missiles on its territory, but UAE authorities later clarified that the military observed two missiles inbound from Iran, which caused no damage or casualties – which triggered an urgent missile alert for the population on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, below are some of the latest major developments and reports related to the Iran conflict:

Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe should Donald Trump escalate the war, according to people close to the regime, as Tehran considers its options to increase the stakes of the conflict. FT

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war with the United States, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment by Donald Trump could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy. RTRS

Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are piling up without an American military response, raising the risks of crossing the strategic waterway and frustrating some Arab allies who worry the U.S. doesn’t have a strategy to wind down the conflict. WSJ

However, shipping analytics firm Kpler has suggested that the US Navy is gaining ground in the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran is ceding some control, amid a war of words between President Trump and Iranian leadership over who has actual ‘control’.

previewing new sanctions still to be announced…

The Trump administration appears to be indicating it favors economic warfare in its approach to the conflict with Iran, touting its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and previewing new sanctions still to be announced. https://t.co/k5g4FBcxF7

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) August 19, 2026

“At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway,” writes CNN. “More than 80% of liquids transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have taken the Omani route – a UN-authorized shipping channel that Iran vehemently opposes – or have been ‘dark’ transits that likely took the Omani route, according to Kpler, which tracks ships using transponders and satellite data.”

But there’s as yet no rush for international shipping to return to the waterway, given the risk of attack and all of the serious unknowns which could result in total losses as well as threaten the safety of crew.