Will Buyers Skip Apple’s iPhone Duo Amid “Crackgate”? UBS Flags Wait-Time Warning Signs To Watch

“Crackgate” exploded last week on X and other social media platforms as dozens of users who dropped more than $2,000 on the new foldable iPhone Duo reported that, just days into owning the new handset, in some cases, hours into using the new smartphone, the screen cracked down the middle. 

Apple soon acknowledged the problem, calling it “display problems,” and said it would offer replacement units. But the potential failure point might go beyond a quality issue and could involve a structural problem with the hinge.

The latest average wait time for the iPhone Duo, measured by UBS Evidence Lab, is 89 days, which means anyone who places a Duo order today won’t receive it until the end of January. What’s impressive is that many Apple fans are willing to be guinea pigs testing the new model, even spending thousands of dollars to do so.

UBS technology analyst David Vogt wrote in a new report that wait times for the new Duo eased over the past week, but buyers still face a three-month delay.

Across more than 30 markets, Vogt and his team found that average wait times were about 89 days. The slight decline in wait times may suggest Apple is catching up with its order backlog, demand is cooling, or both. It doesn’t, on its own, establish that sales are weakening.

“While reports of display issues are a concern in our view, we do not believe that they are the primary driver of the Duo’s declining wait times,” Vogt wrote in the report.

However, delivery trends across Apple’s other premium smartphone models could offer some clues. Average waits for the iPhone 18 Pro declined by three days to about five days, while Pro Max waits held at about 18 days. Both match the comparable models from the previous lineup. 

Vogt added, “We believe that WoW changes to Pro and Pro Max availability is worth tracking, as a tick up may indicate that consumers are opting for the legacy devices instead in our view. If the WoW decline in wait times for the Duo materially accelerate but the Pro and Pro Max continue to trend lower, it may indicate that consumers are deferring their purchases for a potential second-generation foldable that would theoretically launch roughly 8 months after the Duo’s January availability.”

Vogt left his iPhone forecasts unchanged, forecasting 2026 iPhone revenue of $252.5 billion, up 20.5%, and shipments of 261 million units, up 15.4%. He maintained his Neutral rating on the stock and a $296 12-month price target.

The takeaway is that if Pro and Pro Max wait times increase, it could suggest shoppers are switching away from the Duo amid all the negative headlines about cracked screens. Plus, the new foldable handsets are just downright unaffordable.