Robert Parry has a very good article on Ukraine in which he quotes a surprising source:
The reality of what happened in Ukraine was never hard to figure out. George Friedman, the founder of the global intelligence firm Stratfor, called the overthrow of Yanukovych “the most blatant coup in history.” It’s just that the major U.S. news organizations were either complicit in the events or incompetent in describing them to the American people
The article on Ukraine by Parry, former AP and Newsweek award winning reporter who was eventually pushed out after uncovering carefully documented but embarrassing information like CIA ties with drug-runners to fund its “covert” war against Nicaragua, is worth reading, see here:
The link Parry gave to the Stratfor founder quote is in Russian (http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2636177) so here’s a Google translation of the text (trying to translate the url itself had technical difficulties so instead, copy and pasting the actual Russian text into Google translator)
The translation of the key passage:
“United States were interested in forming a pro-Western government in Ukraine. They saw that Russia is on the rise, and tried not to let it consolidate its position in the post-Soviet space. The success of the pro-Western forces in Ukraine would allow to contain Russia.
“Russia calls the events of the beginning of the year organized by the US coup. And it really was the most blatant coup in history.” – George Friedman, counfer of what some call teh “private-CIA”, Stratfor
Below is Google Translation (translate.google.com) of the text
“Interests of the Russian Federation and the United States with regard to Ukraine are incompatible with each other”
Chapter Stratfor, George Friedman on the underlying causes of the crisis Ukrainian
In Moscow, has visited the famous American political scientist George Friedman. Stratfor headed by a private intelligence and analytical agency in the United States is often called the “shadow CIA.” In an interview with “Kommersant”, he told about what the United States pursues goals in Ukraine, and explained why these goals are incompatible with the interests of Russia.
- In its analytical work you’re talking about the fragmentation of Europe. What is it manifested?
- During the Cold War borders within Europe have been preserved. It was understood that, if you start to change them, it will lead to destabilization. Once the Cold War ended, began redrawing borders of Yugoslavia. Later, in fact, changed the borders in the Caucasus. More recently, the Scots voted for independence 45%. To seek independence Catalans.
Against this background, I do not think Ukrainian situation (when one part of the country tends to converge with the EU, while the other tends to Russia) something completely unique. Ukrainian situation fits into the centrifugal tendencies that we have been seeing in Europe. Indeed, until recently, no one thought that the British-Scottish question, like settled 300 years ago, there again acutely. In other words: Ukrainian crisis is connected with Russia, but not only. He is also associated with the processes in Europe, the crisis of Europe itself.
- European politicians say that it is the actions of Russia in the Ukrainian direction destabilize Europe.
- Europeans are very proud of the fact that they call their “exclusive”: that they got rid of wars and more than half a century live in a world of stability and prosperity. But until the early 1990s Europe, in fact, was occupied by the Soviet Union and the United States. And then there was Yugoslavia, then the Caucasus. The European continent has never been a truly peaceful.
- But US officials, as well as management of EU member states, to explain a strict policy of the Russian Federation that, annexing the Crimea, Russia for the first time since the Second World War, “redrew the borders by force.”
- Americans know that this is nonsense. The first example of changing the borders by force was Yugoslavia. And Kosovo was only the culmination of this process. And the United States is directly involved in these events.
- What is the goal of US policy in the Ukrainian direction?
- The Americans have all the latest years has been very consistent foreign policy 100. The main goal: not to give any Power to amass too much power in Europe. First, the United States sought to prevent Germany to dominate Europe, then let strengthen the influence of the USSR.
The essence of this policy is as follows: as long as possible to maintain the balance of power in Europe, helping the weaker party, and if the balance is about to be significantly disrupted – to intervene at the last moment. So the United States intervened in the First World War after the abdication of Nicholas II m in 1917, without giving the efforts of Germany. And during WWII US opened a second front only very late (June of 1944), after it became clear that the Russian prevail over the Germans.
The United States is considered the most dangerous potential alliance between Russia and Germany. This would be an alliance of German technology and capital with Russian natural and human resources.
- And now the United States who, in your opinion, holding back?
- Now they are doing the blocking of a number of potential regional hegemons – Serbia, Iran, Iraq. In this case, the US authorities have resorted to diversionary attacks. For example, in the battle, when the enemy is about to win you, you can hit him in the side, to bring out of balance. US does not seek to “win” Serbia, Iran or Iraq, but they need to create havoc there, to prevent the too harden.
- And with regard to Russia what tactics they use?
- The fragmentation of Europe accompanied by a weakening of NATO. In European countries, in fact, armies do not. The United States under the North Atlantic Alliance is the only strong in military terms the country. The weakening of Europe relative power of Russia has grown significantly.
Russian strategic imperative – to have as deep a buffer zone on its western borders. Therefore, Russia is always especially applies to Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic States and other countries in Eastern Europe. They are of great importance for Russia’s national security.
At the beginning of this year in Ukraine was slightly pro-Russian, but very shaky government. It suited Moscow: Russia do not want to completely control the Ukraine or occupy it – enough that Ukraine will not join NATO and the EU. The Russian authorities can not tolerate a situation in which western armed forces will be a hundred kilometers from Kursk or Voronezh.
“Russia calls the events of the beginning of the year organized by the US coup. And it really was the most blatant coup in history.”
United States were interested in forming a pro-Western government in Ukraine. They saw that Russia is on the rise, and tried not to let it consolidate its position in the post-Soviet space. The success of the pro-Western forces in Ukraine would allow to contain Russia.
Russia calls the events of the beginning of the year organized by the US coup. And it really was the most blatant coup in history.
- You mean the termination of the agreement of February 21, or the entire Maidan?
- All together. Openly supported the US after human rights groups in Ukraine, including money. A Russian special services, these trends have missed. They did not understand what was happening, but when they realized they could not take action to stabilize the situation, and then misjudged the mood in the East of Ukraine.
- That is the Ukrainian crisis – is the result of confrontation between Russia and the United States?
- Here you have two of the country. One wants Ukraine was neutral. And the other – to Ukraine was part of a line of containment of Russian expansion. We can not say that one party is mistaken: both are based on their national interests. Just these interests can not be compared with each other.
Americans, as I have said, it is important to prevent the emergence of hegemony in Europe. But recently they have started to seriously worry about the potential of Russia and its intentions. Russia is beginning to move from the defense position that she has held since 1992, to the restoration of its sphere of influence. The matter is a fundamental mismatch of national interests of the two great powers.
- That the actions of the Russian Federation could alert the US?
- Russia has begun to take certain steps that the United States considered unacceptable. Primarily in Syria. There are Russian Americans have demonstrated that they are able to influence the process in the Middle East. And the US and Russian without enough problems in this region.
Russian intervene in the process in the Middle East including, as they had hoped to get a tool to influence US policy in other areas. But they miscalculated. United States thought it was Russia’s attempt to harm them. It is in this context it is worth to consider the events in Ukraine. Russian, apparently, simply have not calculated how seriously the US perceive their actions or that they can easily find countermeasures. US same in this situation looked at Russia and thought what she wants less – instability in Ukraine.
- Do you think Ukraine in retaliation for Syria?
- No, not a place. But Russian intervene in the process in Syria, while the United States addressed the problems in Iraq, have been negotiating with Iran … In Washington, many people have the impression that Russian want to destabilize the already fragile US position in the Middle East – a region that is key to America.
In Washington, on this account were two points of view: that the Russian just playing the fool, or that they have found a weak point of the US and trying to take advantage of it. I’m not saying that Russia’s intervention in the Syrian conflict was the cause of the Ukrainian crisis, it would be a stretch. But this intervention has led to what many in Washington have decided that Russian – this is a problem. And that in such a case? [A view of some in power in Washington that one should] nNot to join with [Russia] in the same confrontation in the Middle East. It is better to divert [Russian] attention to other problems in other regions [namely in the Ukraine]
Now I’m all a bit oversimplified, it is clear that all the more difficult in practice, but a causal relationship was. As a result, the bottom line is that the strategic interests of the United States – to prevent Russia from becoming a hegemon. And in the strategic interests of Russia – not to allow the US to its borders.
- What, in your opinion, the meaning of US sanctions? Russian authorities say that the US wants to bring about regime change.
- The purpose of sanctions is to with minimal damage to the US and several large EU hurt Russia in order capitulated to US demands.
Sanctions demonstrate the power of the United States. And the United States willing to use that power to countries with nothing on it to respond adequately. It is also an opportunity to “build” the Europeans. I do not think that the main purpose of the United States is regime change in Russia. The main goal was to limit the room for maneuver of the Russian authorities that we are witnessing. But here played the role of other factors, such as the decline in Russian economy, falling oil prices.
- In Russia, many say that oil prices dropped due to the US conspiracy with the Gulf countries.
- Trouble is always easier to explain someone’s deliberate actions. But a number of countries, including China, India and Brazil, have reduced forecasts for the rate of growth of their economies. Europe has generally zero growth. In this case, the oil is now a revolution, the amount of available oil grow.
The fall in oil prices was inevitable. What else did you expect? But you have built its economic strategy, focusing not only on high oil prices, but in general on energy exports. It made you vulnerable! We had to use the last years of high revenues from energy resources to diversify the economy of 10-15, but your government did not.
- Can we expect to improve US-Russian relations after the next presidential election in the US?
- In Russia, [you] too much] personify American politics. In the US President – this is only one of the institutions of power, it is not is sovereign. Obama also bound hand and foot, as [were his] predecessors. If the Middle East are gaining momentum rapidly categories such as “Islamic State”, it does not matter whether the US President Democrat or Republican – he will have to hit them blow [yes but unstated here is that Obama is also institutionally "bound" to not just "hit" but to, as usual, put U.S. imperial hegemony at the top of the proprities of how to react, how to "hit" -ED]
And no American president can not afford to sit idly by if Russia becomes more and more influential. Russia’s actions in the Middle East, for example, in the case of asylum Edward Snowden were perceived in the US as against US interests. Any US president would have to react to it. I have about three years ago in one of his books predicted that as soon as Russia starts to gain momentum and demonstrate it, there was a crisis in Ukraine. It was obvious.
- How realistic do you think Russia’s rapprochement with China?
- China has now itself a lot of problems – declining growth, high inflation and unemployment. Do not expect gifts from Beijing. A tube construction in China, to which the Russian authorities will have to spend significant amounts is unlikely to have anything like a tangible effect on the Russian economy.
- How do you see the further developments around Ukraine?
- Russia will not make concessions in the Crimea, is obvious. But I believe that it could face serious problems with the supply of the peninsula. Yet Moscow can not retreat from some of its requirements with regard to Ukraine. It can not be allowed to appear in Ukraine Western military. This is a nightmare in Moscow, and this limits its room for maneuver.
The US will need to make a strategic decision, not now but in the future, either to intervene more actively in events in Ukraine, which is fraught with difficulties, or to build a new alliance – within NATO or non-NATO – with the participation of Poland, Romania, the Baltic States, for example, Turkey. This is already happening, slowly but occurs. And it will be something that Russia does not accept the “cordon sanitaire.” The US [view] is not that you [meaning the U.S.] need to have control over Ukraine, it is important that it is not controlled by Russia.
Much will depend on Kiev. Kiev authorities – the weak point of Ukraine. If it will break – which is now surprisingly not observed, Russia will try to wrap this up in their favor.
But the main question – whether Russia itself resist. It is now faced with many factors that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union: it is – the lack of effective transport system; it is – a skeptical attitude towards the capital in many regions of the Caucasus to the Far East; but the main thing – it’s the economy that functions only under certain circumstances – namely, high energy prices. Do you have only one product, and it is now the global market in excess of.
Interview by Elena Chernenko and Alexander Gabuev
For more information:https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2636177&usg=ALkJrhg2WWYur9vd3NF-z91gER7ch-h_kA
Again see the important Robert Parry article at his website:
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