INSIDER TRADING SCANDAL- video

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argues evidence suggests Trump insiders are profiting from the Iran war through market manipulation.

On March 20, Trump’s contradictory statements about Iran fueled speculation about insider trading.

On Monday, 15 minutes before Trump announced a five-day pause on hostilities via Truth Social at 7:05am, massive spikes occurred in S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading and West Texas Intermediate oil futures.

Crude oil prices plummeted from $112 to $97 per barrel after Trump’s announcement. Krugman wrote “somebody close to Trump knew what he was about to do, and exploited that inside information to make huge, instant profits,” calling the situation treasonous. Similar suspicious trading occurred before Trump’s Venezuela military action.

News broke this week that the president of the US has been selling insider information.

For a hundred grand a month people can buy advance access to his Truth Social posts, seeing them before they go live online. Since what the leader of the foremost economy says matters to the markets – launching military strikes, enacting tariffs or changing regulations, for example – the posts can move billions in moments. Knowing these things before others constitutes opportunity. And a crime, of course.

If Trump were a CEO selling advance knowledge of quarterly earnings, he’d be in jail.

But, there it is.

Through his media company Trump’s data feed, “Truth API” sells the info to high-frequency trading firms immediately before it’s published, giving enough time for a gush of trades. This advance knowledge of government actions, policies and intentions allows the wealthy to act and profit on market-moving facts before the public is even aware.

Apart from the obvious fact this is the most corrupt leader in American history, it kicks up a vital question: can you trust the market, when even the president cheats?

As mentioned here in recent days, equity investors have had an awesome time lately. Stocks have handed over double-digit returns in recent months and are ahead about 30% in the past year. Huge gains by tech and AI issues have been bolstered of late by a rotation into more traditional sectors, helped along by massive data centre spending. Oil has popped due to the Iran mess. Our banks have been shooting the lights out as usual. It’s ben a party on Wall and Bay.

Former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci alleged Friday that President Donald Trump‘s administration orchestrated a massive insider trading scheme tied to geopolitical announcements that yielded up to $400 million in illicit profits.

The $400 Million Strike Moratorium

In a recent video statement on X, Scaramucci detailed highly suspicious trading activity occurring just one hour before Trump announced a five-day moratorium on Iran strikes.

According to Scaramucci, insiders purchased $1.5 billion in notional S&P E-mini futures contracts. This was about four to six times the normal market volume. This took place alongside a simultaneous purchase of $192 million in crude oil futures.

“They made between $300 and $400 million dollars off those trades,” Scaramucci claimed. He further alleged that Trump fabricated a phone call with an Iranian official to justify the market-moving moratorium, noting that Iranian authorities denied the conversation ever took place.

“These people are making hundreds upon hundreds of millions of dollars trading on information that only exists inside the most powerful office in the world,” Scaramucci said. “This isn’t politics anymore. This is a financial operation running out of the White House.”

On April 9, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump ignited a firestorm by posting “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” on his Truth Social platform at 9:37 a.m. ET, just hours before announcing a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China). The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 8%, recovering $4 trillion in market value lost during days of tariff-induced panic. Critics, including Democratic lawmakers and ethics experts, allege this sequence resembles market manipulation or insider trading, while Trump’s team insists it was a presidential duty to “reassure markets” 

Key details:

• Trump’s DJT initials matched the ticker symbol of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), whose stock rose 22% post-announcement

• Tariff context: The pause followed his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs (10% baseline + 60+ country-specific hikes), which triggered a 10% S&P 500 drop and recession fears 

• Billionaire windfalls: Trump later boasted about associates like Charles Schwab gaining $2.5 billion in a single day, fueling suspicions of cronyism

Is This Insider Trading? Legal Gray Areas

Under U.S. law, insider trading requires trading on material non-public information in breach of fiduciary duty. Market manipulation involves intentionally distorting prices. Here’s the debate:

1. Public vs. Private Information: Trump’s “buy” call was public, but critics argue he had undisclosed knowledge of the tariff pause when posting. He later claimed the decision was made “over the last few days” but finalised “early [Wednesday] morning”. Legal experts like Adam Pritchard (University of Michigan) note public statements alone don’t constitute insider trading unless private tips were shared

2. Market Manipulation Risks: Richard Painter, former Bush ethics lawyer, argues Trump’s posts could artificially inflate markets, exposing him to accusations of manipulation 19. The SEC defines manipulation as “artificially affecting supply/demand,” but proving intent is difficult

3. Trump’s Conflicts of Interest: Trump’s wealth is tied to TMTG (ticker: DJT), which soared post-announcement. While he didn’t explicitly promote the stock, the initials’ overlap raises ethical concerns

4. Congressional Trades: Democrats like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called for transparency on lawmakers’ stock purchases ahead of the surge, citing a May 15 disclosure deadline

Legal experts note the complexities of pursuing any case against a sitting president.

Kathleen Clark, a government ethics law expert at Washington University School of Law, said Trump’s post would have been investigated in other administrations but is not likely to trigger any regulatory action now. “He’s sending the message that he can effectively and with impunity manipulate the market,” she said. “As in: Watch this space for future stock tips.”

Trump bragged about Charles Schwab making $2.5 billion after tariff reversals.
So, again, was it insider trading?

The key question is whether Trump’s “buy” recommendation, made hours before his market-moving announcement, constitutes illegal insider trading or market manipulation.

According to US securities law, insider trading involves trading stocks based on material, non-public information. While presidents aren’t typically subject to insider trading laws when making policy decisions, the situation becomes murky when:

1. A president offers stock market advice before announcing a policy change
2. The president has substantial personal financial interests affected by the advice
3. There’s ambiguity about whether the advice was for the broader market or specific securities

“He’s loving this, this control over markets, but he better be careful,” said Richard Painter, a former White House ethics lawyer, noting that securities law prohibits trading on insider information or helping others do so. “The people who bought when they saw that post made a lot of money.”

Singapore’s Stake: Trade Wars and Market Volatility

For Singaporean investors and businesses, the fallout from Trump’s tariff policies has been significant. Singapore was hit with a 10% tariff, despite having a free-trade agreement with the United States.

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong expressed disappointment with the tariffs, stating they are “not actions done to a friend.” The government has formed a task force to monitor the impact on businesses and workers, as the tariffs are expected to dampen global growth and hit Singapore’s export-reliant sectors.

According to a Reuters report, Trump’s tariff policies have created gaps in international trade that could benefit some countries, with analysts suggesting that Singapore might see additional export opportunities in certain sectors.

However, the overall economic outlook remains concerning. “The tariffs are expected to dampen global growth in the near term, which will hit external demand for Singapore’s export-reliant sectors,” reported Channel News Asia.

For Singapore, a trade-dependent economy, the implications:

1. Supply Chain Risks: The U.S.-China tariff escalation (now 125% on Chinese imports) could disrupt regional exports, particularly electronics and chemicals routed through Singapore 

2. CPF & Investor Exposure: Singaporean investors holding U.S. equities or CPF-approved funds linked to the S&P 500 may face heightened volatility. The “Trump Pump” underscores the risks of geopolitical shocks to retirement portfolios. Monitor their performance closely and consider diversification.

3. Beware of political market signals: Trump’s demonstrated willingness to signal market moves before policy announcements creates both opportunities and risks for investors who follow his social media

4. Singapore’s trade-dependent economy faces headwinds: With global trade disruptions likely to continue, companies heavily reliant on US markets may face challenges

5. Look for trade diversion opportunities: As global supply chains adjust to tariffs, some Singaporean companies may benefit from trade diversion effects

As this controversy unfolds, Singaporean investors and businesses must remain vigilant and adaptable. The confluence of market manipulation concerns, policy volatility, and global trade disruptions creates an especially challenging environment.

Tariff Uncertainty and Economic Impact

The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs has created more uncertainty rather than resolving trade tensions. Business leaders and investors are left wondering what happens after the 90-day period expires.

The most recent inflation data showed the US consumer price index fell 0.1% in March, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February. However, economists predict that Trump’s tariff policies could push inflation higher. According to CNBC, some money managers forecast a 4% full-year 2025 inflation rate due to U.S. tariffs and retaliation by other nations.

Public Sentiment: Do Trump Voters Regret Their Choice?

Post-tariff turmoil, analysts note unease among Trump supporters. Anecdotal reports suggest frustration over 401(k) losses during the April 2–9 market plunge, though hard data is scarce. However, Trump’s base is shrinking as many continue to jump off the Trump train. 

 According to a Fox News poll, his approval rating is declining, with Americans’ concerns over the economy, inflation, and tariffs fueling the downward trend.