The Most Competitive States for Job Growth
Two years ago EMSI examined which states were growing more competitive by isolating the components of job growth from 2007-2011 using shift-share analysis. A cluster of oil and gas-fueled states were the strongest performers. State hurt by the housing crash finished in the last three slots.
In re-examining the topic in an article for Forbes this week, we used our most recent dataset and focused on the growth or decline of salaried and self-employed workers from 2009-2012. While our previous analysis included what is now our fourth class of workers, extended proprietors, we opted to exclude these jobs because a good portion of them, especially in the real estate and oil and gas sectors, represent miscellaneous labor income for people who do not consider these jobs their primary work.
Nonetheless, our new results are in line with our old rankings, at least at the top and bottom: North Dakota still dominates in terms of the percent of total 2012 jobs that can be explained by regional competitiveness. Texas is still No. 2. Nevada is still last. After that, the new list diverts from the old one.
The table below gives a side-by-side comparison of how each state fared in our two analyses. The rankings are not directly comparable since we included all job classes last time (what is referred to as EMSI Complete Employment in our legacy data) and we’re using only the first three job classes this time. But the findings are still noteworthy.
Washington, D.C. is third (it was seventh last time) thanks to the stronger-than-expected performance of the government sector, while Indiana made a huge jump from 38th to No. 4. As we wrote in Forbes, Indiana saw greater-than-anticipated increases in manufacturing and construction. The Hoosier State’s retail trade sector also added 11,000 more jobs than expected from 2009-2012.
Indiana is just one Rust Belt state that has improved its position in terms of job growth and competitiveness. Michigan jumped from 48th to 10th, and Ohio went from 40th to No. 18.
Utah, at No. 5, makes its second appearance in the top 10, followed by Kentucky (previously 20th). Minnesota and South Carolina are tied for seventh after being ranked 30th last time. The improvement in Minnesota can be traced to better-than-expected job growth in general and medical surgical hospitals and temporary help services; for Kentucky, temporary help has also seen a huge boom, followed by the federal and local government sectors.
| State | Total 2012 Jobs | Expected 2012 Jobs | Competitive Effect | % of Jobs Due to Comp. Effect | Current Ranking (2009-2012) | Old Ranking (2007-2011) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees & Self-Employed – EMSI 2013.1 Class of Worker | ||||||
| North Dakota | 465,685 | 416,450 | 49,235 | 10.6% | 1 | 1 |
| Texas | 12,096,311 | 11,758,677 | 337,634 | 2.8% | 2 | 2 |
| District of Columbia | 769,360 | 753,507 | 15,853 | 2.1% | 3 | 7 |
| Indiana | 3,123,285 | 3,064,416 | 58,869 | 1.9% | 4 | 38 |
| Utah | 1,349,639 | 1,324,805 | 24,834 | 1.8% | 5 | 10 |
| Kentucky | 2,023,805 | 1,999,654 | 24,151 | 1.2% | 6 | 20 |
| Minnesota | 2,970,609 | 2,947,273 | 23,336 | 0.8% | 7 | 30 |
| Massachusetts | 3,620,266 | 3,592,128 | 28,138 | 0.8% | 7 | 13 |
| South Carolina | 2,060,301 | 2,044,758 | 15,543 | 0.8% | 7 | 30 |
| Colorado | 2,598,974 | 2,579,484 | 19,490 | 0.7% | 10 | 15 |
| Oklahoma | 1,773,632 | 1,761,875 | 11,757 | 0.7% | 10 | 8 |
| Michigan | 4,307,456 | 4,278,996 | 28,460 | 0.7% | 10 | 48 |
| New York | 9,500,875 | 9,449,184 | 51,691 | 0.5% | 13 | 15 |
| Montana | 506,805 | 504,075 | 2,730 | 0.5% | 13 | 23 |
| Washington | 3,325,527 | 3,315,195 | 10,332 | 0.3% | 15 | 14 |
| Tennessee | 2,989,155 | 2,979,895 | 9,260 | 0.3% | 15 | 36 |
| Virginia | 4,124,255 | 4,117,772 | 6,483 | 0.2% | 17 | 18 |
| Ohio | 5,589,017 | 5,580,803 | 8,214 | 0.1% | 18 | 40 |
| Hawaii | 732,605 | 732,382 | 223 | 0.0% | 19 | 39 |
| South Dakota | 465,824 | 466,065 | -241 | -0.1% | 20 | 5 |
| Iowa | 1,661,085 | 1,663,931 | -2,846 | -0.2% | 21 | 11 |
| Pennsylvania | 6,200,897 | 6,212,949 | -12,052 | -0.2% | 21 | 15 |
| Nebraska | 1,048,345 | 1,050,831 | -2,486 | -0.2% | 21 | 6 |
| Arizona | 2,738,550 | 2,745,755 | -7,205 | -0.3% | 24 | 50 |
| Alaska | 382,900 | 383,925 | -1,025 | -0.3% | 24 | 3 |
| California | 17,083,251 | 17,129,530 | -46,279 | -0.3% | 24 | 44 |
| Maryland | 2,830,185 | 2,838,192 | -8,007 | -0.3% | 24 | 23 |
| Louisiana | 2,121,398 | 2,128,969 | -7,571 | -0.4% | 28 | 4 |
| Georgia | 4,370,221 | 4,387,932 | -17,711 | -0.4% | 28 | 43 |
| Oregon | 1,878,970 | 1,886,975 | -8,005 | -0.4% | 28 | 34 |
| North Carolina | 4,449,729 | 4,471,545 | -21,816 | -0.5% | 31 | 32 |
| Florida | 8,167,773 | 8,225,077 | -57,304 | -0.7% | 32 | 49 |
| Arkansas | 1,301,638 | 1,312,376 | -10,738 | -0.8% | 33 | 12 |
| Idaho | 714,690 | 720,934 | -6,244 | -0.9% | 34 | 44 |
| Vermont | 350,971 | 354,694 | -3,723 | -1.1% | 35 | 8 |
| Illinois | 6,176,902 | 6,242,734 | -65,832 | -1.1% | 35 | 32 |
| Wisconsin | 2,956,489 | 2,989,475 | -32,986 | -1.1% | 35 | 22 |
| Kansas | 1,512,062 | 1,534,991 | -22,929 | -1.5% | 38 | 23 |
| Missouri | 2,957,043 | 3,003,437 | -46,394 | -1.6% | 39 | 36 |
| Wyoming | 318,362 | 323,546 | -5,184 | -1.6% | 39 | 19 |
| Alabama | 2,071,968 | 2,110,255 | -38,287 | -1.8% | 41 | 44 |
| Delaware | 444,300 | 452,655 | -8,355 | -1.9% | 42 | 41 |
| Connecticut | 1,804,691 | 1,839,488 | -34,797 | -1.9% | 42 | 27 |
| New Jersey | 4,142,444 | 4,225,659 | -83,215 | -2.0% | 44 | 34 |
| New Hampshire | 691,532 | 707,776 | -16,244 | -2.3% | 45 | 23 |
| Mississippi | 1,227,830 | 1,256,881 | -29,051 | -2.4% | 46 | 27 |
| West Virginia | 765,442 | 786,237 | -20,795 | -2.7% | 47 | 21 |
| Maine | 668,453 | 687,682 | -19,229 | -2.9% | 48 | 29 |
| Rhode Island | 496,714 | 512,309 | -15,595 | -3.1% | 49 | 47 |
| New Mexico | 893,887 | 924,972 | -31,085 | -3.5% | 50 | 41 |
| Nevada | 1,225,839 | 1,268,838 | -42,999 | -3.5% | 50 | 51 |
Related Links
America’s Most Competitive Metros Since 2010
Which States Are Growing More Competitive?
Data for this post comes from Analyst, EMSI’s web-based labor market data and analysis tool. For more information, contact Josh Wright ([email protected]). Follow us on Twitter @DesktopEcon
2013-04-03 11:48:57
Source: http://www.economicmodeling.com/2013/04/03/the-most-competitive-states-for-job-growth/
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