“There Is No ‘Second Wave’”
by Jim Rickards
“Stocks were up today, at least partially because President Trump’s senior economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, has said there won’t be another lockdown. Whether or not the original lockdown was the proper response to the pandemic is still up for debate. Different countries had different responses, with various outcomes. But parts of the U.S. are currently seeing surges in new infections after states have reopened their economies. Over 31,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported on Monday, led by states like California, Arizona and Texas. Cases are increasing by 5% in 26 states. For some, the rate is higher.
Some people are talking about a second wave. But it’s important to understand that what we’re seeing is not a real second wave. It’s more of an extended spread of the first wave, including the “Italian strain,” a mutation that seems to have occurred after the virus traveled from Wuhan to Milan. The Italian strain is more lethal than the original strain. This may explain why New York was hit so much harder than Seattle and Los Angeles, at least initially: because New York picked up the Italian strain from Europe while the West Coast got the Wuhan strain straight from China.
The virus hits different locations at different times, and each location must suffer through its own eight–10-week rise and fall in infections before the disease is somewhat under control. It may be the West Coast and Texas are in a late stage of the first wave because of a late arrival of the Italian strain.
So we shouldn’t be surprised by the surge in cases. The lockdowns were only designed to “flatten the curve,” not to eradicate the virus. It’s logical that it would begin to spread again once economies opened up. But who knows when states could open if they had to wait around for a vaccine (which is probably a year away on the optimistic side. On the pessimistic side, there might never be a functioning vaccine. Scientists have never developed an effective vaccine for a coronavirus, which COVID-19 obviously is). So the lockdowns couldn’t continue indefinitely until Dr. Fauci or Bill Gates said it was safe to open.
The lockdowns have taken their own economic, health and social tolls on countless Americans. Livelihoods have been lost, depression has been rampant, suicides have spiked and substance abuse has greatly increased, as have reports of domestic violence. Meanwhile, people who needed medical care for other serious conditions and diseases hadn’t been treated because hospitals were so focused on handling the coronavirus crisis. So you can’t just consider the increase in infections as a uniquely negative consequence of reopening. You need to consider it in the context of the other types of damage lockdowns have caused.
And as of today, infection rates in states reporting increases aren’t nearly as high as what we saw in New York and New Jersey during late March and April when the disease was at its peak. And the overall fatality rate is still very low.
Each individual is irreplaceable and each death is a tragedy for those it impacts. But the great majority of fatalities are the elderly or those with underlying health conditions, often both. That’s not to say that younger, otherwise healthy people haven’t died from the virus. They have. But fortunately, these cases are rare.
And the fact is the great majority of people who contract the virus will survive. That’s the good news. But here’s the bad news: The second wave of the virus could come after a gap of about six months (so, from June–December 2020), resulting from a mutation or recombination of RNA/DNA that is practically like a new virus. And it could be much more lethal. The second wave of the Spanish flu, for example (October 1918), was far more deadly than the first wave (March 1918).
A second wave is not guaranteed to happen, although there is real cause for concern based on past pandemics. Let’s pray it doesn’t happen.”
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Source:
http://coyoteprime-runningcauseicantfly.blogspot.com/2020/06/there-is-no-second-wave.html
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If not yet then soon. Similar but way more lethal
I’m not even convinced there was a first wave
the Doctors and Nurses that are interviewed for television sure think it’s real and getting a lot worse and fast. how could they all be ‘faking it’?