Read the Beforeitsnews.com story here. Advertise at Before It's News here.
Profile image
By Universe Today (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views
Now:
Last hour:
Last 24 hours:
Total:

Thanks to Observations, a Potentially Dangerous Asteroid was Found to be Harmless

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.


Earlier this year, the discovery of a potentially hazardous asteroid took astronomers on a roller coaster ride.

On January 6, 2022, astronomers at the Mount Lemmon Observatory in Arizona discovered an asteroid roughly 70-meters (230 ft) across. Based on their initial observations, it appeared this object — called ‘2022 AE1’ – could potentially hit Earth on its next pass, on July 4, 2023.

Since any uncertainties in an asteroid’s orbit are highest in the hours just after its discovery, astronomers at several different observatories scrambled to make follow-up observations – which usually rule out any future impacts.

However, based on the first seven nights of observations, the chance of impact appeared to increase. Asteroid 2022 AE1 was flagged for a potential future impact by the Asteroid Orbit Determination (AstOD), an automated system astronomers around the world use to assess the asteroid risk. Furthermore, the asteroid was given one of the highest rankings on the Palermo Scale, a ranking which astronomers use to categories and prioritize impact risks. Both ESA and NASA published the information on their Near Earth Object (NEO) information portal websites, allowing anyone — such as interested amateur astronomers — to take a look.

The 60-inch telescope on Mount Lemmon is one of three telescopes used in the Catalina Sky Survey. Credit: University of Arizona.

Even more worry-inducing was the following week, where no observations could be made because the full Moon blocked out any views of this asteroid from Earth.

But thankfully, when the asteroid was able to be tracked again, the accumulating data on the asteroid’s path revealed the chance of impact was dramatically decreasing over time. It has since been confirmed that 2022 AE1 will not impact Earth any time in the foreseeable future.

“In my almost ten years at ESA I’ve never seen such a risky object,” said Marco Micheli, astronomer at ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC). “It was a thrill to track 2022 AE1 and refine its trajectory until we had enough data to say for certain, this asteroid will not strike.”

So, exactly how were astronomers able to rule out a threat that initially seemed so certain?

The very first observation of an asteroid is just one data point, a single dot of light in the sky. At this point, it’s not clear what it is or where it’s going. Micheli explained that a second observation is needed to reveal an object in motion, and at least three are needed to determine an orbit – where it is going and how fast it is moving. Further observations refine the orbit a little more, reducing uncertainties until astronomers can be sure of where it won’t go: primarily to Earth.

To help make these determinations, astronomers use computer simulations to calculate the future orbital path of the asteroid, and input randomly chosen initial positions and velocities that fall within the margin of error of the observations so far. By creating a large number of simulations, astronomers can calculate the probability that any particular path will actually hit Earth. For example, if one million different possible orbits are simulated and just one of those leads to an impact, that means the odds of the asteroid hitting Earth are a million to one.

The global network of telescopes that search the skies for potentially hazardous asteroids and comets, which provides a near real-time assessment of any incoming risks. Credit: ESA

What usually happens is that with more observations and more data, the hazard zone narrows and the corridor of the asteroid’s future path moves away from Earth, dropping the risk percentage. And with the network of observatories around the world that are focused on planetary defense – i.e., searching the skies for incoming asteroids and comets – multiple observations and quickly rule out any space rocks that aren’t a threat.

In the case of 2022 AE1, observations after the Moon didn’t interfere provided the data needed to show that the risk level had showed the risk level With one single observation, the risk level crashed – getting close to zero – and with that, the team moved on.

“The data was clear, confirmed the next morning by our counterparts at NASA – asteroid 2022 AE1 poses no impact risk,” said Laura Faggioli, near-Earth object dynamicist in the NEOCC who computed the orbit of 2022 AE1 throughout the observation period. “Had 2022 AE1’s path remained uncertain we would have used any means possible to keep watching it with the biggest telescopes we have. As it was removed from our risk list, we didn’t need to follow it anymore – time to move onto the next.”

ESA said some keen observers will continue to monitor the asteroid, confirming the projections, we now know that in early July 2023, asteroid 2022 AE1 will fly by Earth at a distance of about ten million kilometres (+/- one million km) – more than 20 times the distance of the Moon.

So, although the odds of any one particular asteroid ever impacting Earth are quite low, it is still likely that one day our planet will be hit by an asteroid or experience a large airburst event like the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013. At the current calculated rate of impacts, astronomers expect about one large asteroid to impact Earth every 100 million years or so. For that reason, both professional and amateur astronomers continue to scan the skies.

Lead image caption: Asteroid 2022 AE1 observed with the Calar Alto Schmidt telescope in Spain on the evening of 19 January 2022. Credit: ESA

Sources: ESA, Planetary Defense Office

The post Thanks to Observations, a Potentially Dangerous Asteroid was Found to be Harmless appeared first on Universe Today.


Source: https://www.universetoday.com/154807/thanks-to-observations-a-potentially-dangerous-asteroid-was-found-to-be-harmless/


Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.

Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.

"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

Humic & Fulvic Liquid Trace Mineral Complex

HerbAnomic’s Humic and Fulvic Liquid Trace Mineral Complex is a revolutionary New Humic and Fulvic Acid Complex designed to support your body at the cellular level. Our product has been thoroughly tested by an ISO/IEC Certified Lab for toxins and Heavy metals as well as for trace mineral content. We KNOW we have NO lead, arsenic, mercury, aluminum etc. in our Formula. This Humic & Fulvic Liquid Trace Mineral complex has high trace levels of naturally occurring Humic and Fulvic Acids as well as high trace levels of Zinc, Iron, Magnesium, Molybdenum, Potassium and more. There is a wide range of up to 70 trace minerals which occur naturally in our Complex at varying levels. We Choose to list the 8 substances which occur in higher trace levels on our supplement panel. We don’t claim a high number of minerals as other Humic and Fulvic Supplements do and leave you to guess which elements you’ll be getting. Order Your Humic Fulvic for Your Family by Clicking on this Link , or the Banner Below.



Our Formula is an exceptional value compared to other Humic Fulvic Minerals because...


It’s OXYGENATED

It Always Tests at 9.5+ pH

Preservative and Chemical Free

Allergen Free

Comes From a Pure, Unpolluted, Organic Source

Is an Excellent Source for Trace Minerals

Is From Whole, Prehisoric Plant Based Origin Material With Ionic Minerals and Constituents

Highly Conductive/Full of Extra Electrons

Is a Full Spectrum Complex


Our Humic and Fulvic Liquid Trace Mineral Complex has Minerals, Amino Acids, Poly Electrolytes, Phytochemicals, Polyphenols, Bioflavonoids and Trace Vitamins included with the Humic and Fulvic Acid. Our Source material is high in these constituents, where other manufacturers use inferior materials.


Try Our Humic and Fulvic Liquid Trace Mineral Complex today. Order Yours Today by Following This Link.

Report abuse

    Comments

    Your Comments
    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    MOST RECENT
    Load more ...

    SignUp

    Login

    Newsletter

    Email this story
    Email this story

    If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

    If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.