Searching For Saves: Two Sleepers Quickly Emerging

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are always on the hunt for the next big “closer in waiting”, and there are two situations developing that should bring some intrigue for fantasy owners:

1. Is there a sleeper emerging in San Diego?
2. Who should be next up in Texas?

Let’s take a look at these two situations, where there is potential value to be had for the savvy fantasy owner:

San Diego Padres
Everyone wanted it to be Brad Hand as the next up, and it looked like he was primed to take over for Brandon Maurer at one point.  Instead he continues to operate in a setup role and it wouldn’t be surprising to see both Hand and Maurer traded prior to the deadline.  Enter Phil Maton, a recently promoted reliever who is quickly rising to a prominent role in the bullpen.

He’s only thrown 2.2 IP in the Majors, but has 4 K vs. 0 BB over that span.  Whether you call his secondary pitch a curveball or slider is irrelevant, as his two pitch mix has shown unbelievable swing and miss ability (27.3% SwStr%).  Obviously it’s easy to call this an incredibly small sample size, but keep in mind he owned a 13.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over his minor league career (11.01 and 2.84 in 25.1 IP at Triple-A prior to his promotion in ’17).  That screams of a closer profile, wouldn’t you say?

Prior to the season MLB.com described his arsenal as follows:

“Maton has elite bat-missing ability, a notion supported by his 14.5 strikeouts-per-nine in 84 1/3 innings to begin his career. The right-hander’s fastball typically sits at 93-96 mph with considerable late life and movement that allows him to get whiffs inside the strike zone with the pitch. Club officials even go so far as to call it an “invisible fastball,” which speaks to the pitch’s high spin rate and deceptive nature. Maton can also miss (and obliterate) bats with his above-average cutter in the mid- to upper-80s, and he shows feel for spinning an average curveball.”

His stock is rising and when the dust settles in San Diego he could be getting save opportunities (and it’s not impossible that he sees them even without a trade).

Texas Rangers
Matt Bush blew a save on Monday, continuing his struggles as of late.  That leaves us to wonder if the team decided to make a move, who is next up?  The thought has been Keone Kela would step into the role, but could a new candidate be emerging?  Let’s take a look at the options:

Keone Kela – You can argue that he would’ve gotten a shot after Sam Dyson imploded, but he opened the year in the minors.  Since returning he’s thrown 25.2 IP with a 3.16 ERA and 12.27 K/9, so you would think that he’d be a shoe-in for the role.  However he’s struggled with his control (4.21 BB/9) and also carries the risk of home run troubles (34.0% groundball rate, 1.05 HR/9).  After posting a 4.50 BB/9 and 1.59 HR/9 over 34.0 IP for the Rangers in ’16, they are both fair concerns and could ultimately cost him an opportunity.

Jose Leclerc – He too has struggled with his control, with a 4.42 BB/9, though he owns a 15.71 K/9 and 45.5% groundball rate in his 18.2 IP for Texas in ’17.  With a 23.9% SwStr% and 37.2% O-Swing%, there’s reason to believe in the strikeouts and the potential for the walks to improve (though the latter is no guarantee).  Even if it doesn’t, though, his fourseam fastball is averaging 95.90 mph and his split-finger fastball has shown elite swing and miss stuff (31.58% Whiff%).  He’s just as good, if not better, then Kela and could easily get the next shot at closing.  If you are in a deeper format, don’t overlook him.

Sources – Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, MLB.com

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